In 2014, Iran's former leader Hassan Rouhani warned of concerns about the health of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei, saying that a meeting of experts might have to decide on the appointment of the next supreme leader. This warning has given rise to speculation about Iran's future. Surprisingly, however, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has recently shown indifference to the upcoming parliamentary and expert elections. The attitude of the Revolutionary Guards has sparked widespread discussion and speculation.
As an important political and military force in Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has always been a loyal supporter and executor of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei. However, the Revolutionary Guards' indifference to Iran's next election and the outcome of the Council of Experts elections is indeed surprising. Parliamentary elections are held every four years, while expert elections are held every eight years. As the body responsible for electing and supervising the Supreme Leader, the general election of the Council of Experts can be said to be very important. The Revolutionary Guards' apathetic attitude seems to imply that they are not worried about the outcome of the election.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is calm, and perhaps some clues can be drawn from an analysis of the direction of Iranian politics. Hardliners have always had the upper hand in Iranian politics, and the Revolutionary Guards, as supporters and representatives of the hardliners, can predict that the hardliners will maintain an advantage in the elections under the influence of the friendly attitude of the Revolutionary Guards. Even if the moderates were to regain power in the future, it would not fundamentally shake the influence that the Revolutionary Guards had built up in Iran for decades. In fact, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps not only has a strong influence in the military field, but also plays an important role in many fields such as politics and economics.
From a historical point of view, the origins of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran can be traced back to the period of the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The Supreme Leader at the time, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, feared that the old army might rebel and overthrow the new army in the future, so he established an independent army outside the army system directly under the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. After years of growth, the Revolutionary Guards now have not only the power of the army, air force and navy, but also the "highest" and "lowest" military power of Iran. The Revolutionary Guards also have political and economic influence, controlling hundreds of companies and overseeing nearly 60 percent of Iran's imports and 30 percent of its exports. In the Iranian parliament, the Revolutionary Guards occupy important seats, and there are many people at all levels in Iran who come from the Revolutionary Guards.
The Revolutionary Guards' strength and widespread influence make them a crucial role in Iranian politics. Whenever political reforms by Iranian moderates threaten Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guards become his natural allies. This may also explain why Iran's former ** Hassan Rouhani has expressed some concern about the outcome of the election of the expert meeting. However, it is the hardliners who have the upper hand at the moment, so the Revolutionary Guards are not worried about the election results.
In short, it is surprising that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an important political and military force in Iran, is indifferent to the results of the elections. This could mean that they believe that in Iran's current political environment, hardliners will have the upper hand for a long time and that their influence will not be shaken. After all, the Revolutionary Guards have built up influence in Iran over the decades beyond the military to play a key role in politics, economics, and many other areas. As for the election results, the Revolutionary Guards seem to believe that their interests and influence will not be too much damaged either way.