: CITIC Research.
Wen Qiu Xiang, Qin Peijing, Yang Fan, Li Shihao
Yang Jiaji Cui Rong Contact: Xu Guanghong.
It is expected that the economic policy will continue to increase in January, the New Year's Eve effect of various capital behaviors will be more obvious, investor confidence will begin to turn positive, and the market will usher in an important inflection point in January. In terms of configuration, it is expected that products going overseas, independent science and technology, new consumption, and low dividend volatility will become the main directions, and in January, it is recommended to give priority to the super-falling growth represented by the science and technology innovation board. On the one hand, from the perspective of market expectations, various economic policies represented by real estate are expected to continue to increase in the middle of this month, and it is expected that non-economic policies represented by online games will continue to be optimized, promoting the sustained and steady recovery of the economy, and market expectations will begin to turn positive. On the other hand, from the perspective of investor behavior, it is expected that the New Year's Eve effect of funds will be more obvious, the market ecology of "speculating small" will usher in a significant improvement in the beginning of the year, the public offering is expected to take the initiative to turn to the offensive, private placement or significantly increase**, insurance capital or gradually increase the dividend low volatility, wealth management will follow the active entry, the outflow of foreign capital is nearing the end, and investor confidence will usher in an inflection point.
Economic policy will continue to be concentrated in January
Market expectations have turned positive
1) Various economic policies are expected to continue to increase, non-economic policies continue to be optimized, and market expectations will turn positive. As for economic policy, on the one hand, the macroeconomic data for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be intensively disclosed in January, which will become an important window to grasp and deploy the next stage of expansionary policies. It is expected that the optimization of the past restrictive real estate policies will be exhausted from the beginning of 2024, and the transformation of the "three major projects" is expected to be fully implemented in 2024, bringing incremental development and investment space. On the other hand, the high base of economic indicators in the first quarter of 2023 means that the policy needs to be more vigorous from January 2024 to achieve a "good start" for the economy this year. At present, the policy mix in the field of chemical debt is steadily advancing, and the local government can work together with the government after unloading the burden, and the local "two sessions" will be held intensively in January and February, and it is expected that the major economic provinces will respond to the call to provoke the growth of the beam. For non-economic policies, on December 22, the National Press and Publication Administration** issued the "Draft Measures for the Administration of Online Games (Draft for Comments)", which caused industry and market shocks, and the relevant departments have responded quickly and positively, and we expect that the final draft of the amendment to individual provisions will be released in mid-to-late January, so as to fully eliminate misunderstandings between the industry and the market. We believe that in the middle of this month, various economic policies represented by real estate are expected to continue to increase, and non-economic policies represented by online games will continue to be optimized, promoting a sustained and steady recovery of the economy, and market expectations will begin to turn positive.
2) The leadership election in Taiwan, China, was held in the middle of this month, and the margin of disruption to market expectations weakened. 2024 is a big year for global elections, and frequent external disturbances are the norm, and we believe that China-US relations will stop falling and stabilize this year, and the probability of further deterioration is small. On the one hand, the significance of the November 2023 China-US summit is to manage differences on the bottom line issue and share responsibilities on global challenges. On the other hand, at the first foreign affairs work conference in December, we once again advocated an equal and orderly world multipolarization and inclusive economic globalization, and in the context of the "de-risking" strategy of the United States, China has made a positive policy response and is doing its best to minimize the possible negative impact.
The cross-year effect of capital behavior will be more pronounced in January
Investor confidence will usher in an inflection point
1) It is expected that the market ecology of "speculating small" will usher in a significant improvement at the beginning of the year. Similar to the 2019-2021 continuous strengthening of the trend of "huddle" institutional heavy stocks, 2022 has lasted for two years so far to avoid the capital behavior of institutional heavy stocks has also reached the other extreme. First of all, in the past, the market believed that there was a mismatch between the performance and valuation of industry leaders, but as of December 29, 2023, the valuation of public and northbound capital heavy stocks was only 129x vs. 112x, which is at the historical bottom of the 0% and 10% quantiles, respectively, since 2010. Secondly, the market has recently been forced to sell positions due to fear of redemption pressure on public offerings, but according to the data from our channel survey of CITIC**, the net redemption rates of the sample active equity public offerings** in the past three weeks were respectively1% and 02%, showing that the market-adjusted net redemption rate in December was higher than that in October-November (an average of 0.).5%) has fallen significantly. In fact, except for a few typical heavy leading stocks, most of the positions above the mid-cap position structure has been basically reasonable, and the current position has corresponded to a great return-risk ratio, and the "institutional growth stocks" represented by the Science and Technology Innovation 50 have recorded "nine consecutive yin" on the monthly line from May to December 2023, and they are currently blindly avoiding institutional positions to "speculate small" It is no longer reasonable.
2) Public offerings are expected to take the initiative to turn offensive, and private placements may significantly increase**. Since 2022, active equity public offerings have suffered deep losses for two consecutive years, of which the annual returns of the ordinary **type** index are -199% and -117% and the mixed stock ** index were -21% and -13%, respectively5% and flexible allocation** indices are -151% and -91%。Looking forward to 2024, it is expected that active equity** will usher in a critical year of breakthrough, and it is expected to gradually abandon the way of thinking of sticking to the theme track for a long time in the past and adopt a more proactive layout strategy. In the past two months, active private placement** has continued to be at a mid-to-low level. According to the data of our CITIC channel research, the actual ** of small and medium-sized active private equity investors has been fluctuating below 70% for 11 consecutive trading weeks, and it is expected that the private equity ** is expected to increase rapidly with the market after the New Year's Eve.
3) Insurance funds may gradually increase their positions with low dividends, and wealth managers will follow and actively enter the market. Insurance institutions have maintained a low level of equity assets** for a long time. We estimate that as of the end of September 2023, the total value of "insurance + social security" will be about 3 trillion yuan, corresponding to only about 4% of the circulating market value of A-shares, which is lower than that of domestic institutions such as public and private offerings. After the adjustment of insurance capital risk factors, relevant institutions are expected to gradually increase their positions in blue-chip chips with stable dividends and low valuations in 2024. Recently, risk aversion has been interpreted to the extreme in the high-dividend sector, and the incremental inflow of insurance funds is also expected to smooth out the volatility caused by the outflow of safe-haven funds. It is expected that flexible funds such as bank wealth management will also gradually enter the low level of cost-effective money this year**. In 2023, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate twice, and the yield on 10-year treasury bonds fell by 26 from the beginning of 20237bps to 256%, which is 0At the 5% percentile, it is expected that wealth managers will continue to allocate bond assets this year, and the cost performance of stocks and bonds has been significantly biased. The latest points of the Science and Technology Innovation 50, CNI 2000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro Cap Index are respectively at the highest levels since 20207% quantile, ** growth is at a relatively low level, and the absolute return funds are likely to actively enter the market after the market inflection point is established in January, and the direction of the layout of the return-risk ratio is higher.
4) The outflow of foreign capital is coming to an end. The redemption pressure faced by overseas asset managers has eased. As of December 20, the net redemption rate of overseas China** was as high as 2%, but the selling behavior brought about by the redemption pressure of overseas China** has eased in the past week, and as of December 27, the net redemption rate of overseas China** has dropped rapidly to 039%, and it is expected that the sharp outflow of foreign capital is basically coming to an end. In the three trading days after Christmas (December 27-29), the cumulative net inflow of transactional foreign capital was 17.1 billion yuan, and the cumulative net inflow of allocated foreign capital was 2.9 billion yuan, reversing the previous net outflow trend. January 2024 is a critical period for intensive policy implementation and economic start, and we believe that even if the recent trend of rapid inflows of foreign capital does not continue, it is more inclined to observe the effect of policies rather than continue to flow out.
The market will usher in an important inflection point in January, and it is recommended to actively grasp it
The super-falling growth represented by the Science and Technology Innovation Board
1) It is expected that products going overseas, independent science and technology, new consumption, and low wave dividends are the main allocation directions. 2023 is the first year of the gradual recovery of social life after the epidemic, and all kinds of market participants are actively responding to the new challenges that have emerged after the epidemic, and have basically summarized and explored a set of long-term development ideasProducts go to sea,For example, China's new energy vehicle industry has opened the way with high-quality models, and its journey to the sea has been accelerating in recent yearsFor the medical and health industry, going overseas to "break the game" is the core competitiveness of getting out of the involution, and sub-industries such as medical devices and pharmaceuticals can open the growth ceiling and enhance the certainty of growth through going overseas. Science and technology independence,For example, in the medium and long term, domestic substitution such as AI chips, CNC machine tools, industrial machine tools, and information innovation is the only way for industrial development. New consumer behaviors,After young people become the main consumer force, consumer preferences and consumption channels are also changing. For example, smart home, outdoor sports brands, beauty, etc. Bonus low volatility,Encouraged by the dividend repurchase policy, dividend low-volatility varieties will become an important tool for investors to consider defensive allocation in the long run.
2) In January, it is recommended to give priority to the layout of the science and technology innovation board, which is more flexible and cost-effective。In terms of allocation, the current market is still in the second stage of the "three-stage allocation strategy", and it is recommended to actively deploy the technology and pharmaceutical sectors that have fallen significantly in the early stage, including the technology sectorAI industryDomestic computing power, AI chip design and applicationetc.),Intelligent drivingHuawei chain, domestic vehiclesetc.),End consumption is warmingConsumer electronics, Android chain recovery, data elements, operatorsRobotswithSatellite Internetetc.),Focus on the pharmaceutical sectorInnovative drugs go overseasVarieties (Medicines, devicesetc.),In addition,New energyPlates can be actively followed,Hong Kong stocksWhite horse breeds such as consumption and the Internet can also be laid out in advance and gradually participated.
Risk factors
Friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology and finance has intensified;The rollout, implementation and economic recovery of domestic policies have not progressed as expectedMacro liquidity at home and abroad tightened more than expected, and foreign capital outflows exceeded expectationsEscalating geopolitical risks.
Editor-in-charge: Wang Lulu.
Proofreading: Wang Chaoquan.
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