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What is economic certainty?
It seems that there is no standard, that is, China's annual growth plan is targeted, and the result is that this clear target has been achieved, which should be the certainty.
What is uncertainty again?
The planning objectives we have formulated are a kind of positioning under dynamic equilibrium;It can also be said to be a kind of bottom-line thinking under the established goal;For example, in order to realize the vision of a super-beautiful economic aggregate in this year, the economic growth rate must be more than two percentage points higher than that of the United States. However, this is clearly uncertain, because we simply cannot define the rate of economic growth in the United States.
Why did such a topic pop up?
It was because I read an article by Mr. Zhou Qiren: "Uncertainty is more serious than "risk".
Mr. Zhou's perspective is broad, from Adam Smith's certainty of market economic development to the history of the world economy, and to the optimistic outlook of China's economy.
He came to the conclusion that uncertainty outweighs "risk".
This conclusion touched my philosophical thinking, and it is not a refutation, but the logic of economic development tells us that it is impossible to pursue certainty, and there is no need to blindly pursue certainty. Of course, Mr. Zhou may be talking about policy uncertainty from another angle.
Let's follow Mr. Zhou's topic!
Adam Smith's optimism and clarity about the market economy and his foresight of the future of a fully market-oriented American economy were validated.
Malthus's theory, however, has marked economics with melancholy, because population growth is a geometric progression, and once it exceeds the rate of economic growth, especially food growth, it will suffer famine, plague, disaster and war, which is called heavenly curse for the Chinese.
Thus, a great thinker was born, and he was Marx.
He gives two certainties to the human economy, one is that capitalism will inevitably have overproduction (which is somewhat Malthusian, the difference is that he attributes the inevitability of overproduction to the capitalists), and will eventually become the gravedigger of its own production relations;Instead, it was a very deterministic communism in which people prospered. This is a kind of pursuit of certainty in theory, and the practice of economics has never been determined, and it is even full of huge risks, which is exactly what I feel.
The former Soviet Union had decades of optimism.
The planned economy itself is a deterministic thinking, with a uniform and powerful mobilization order, the heart is surging to build up a large industry, but certainty is humanity, the will to power, and the visible hand, while the economy is a superdimensional random variable.
People have made a lot of political summaries about the instantaneous collapse of the former Soviet Union, but the root is in the economic foundation, and it must be in the economic foundationHayek made it clear that the economy, driven by a definite and visible hand, makes the most dangerous choice among extradimensional variables. The planned economy has suddenly encountered an inexplicable economic stagnation, residents' incomes can never catch up with the growth rate, and the economy has lost its balance among the definite and therefore rigid goals.
This has drawn a huge question mark for China, which is also a socialist system
Can a beautiful ideal be planned?
For idealists, this is a must;For pragmatic messengers, no one can beat randomness.
We cannot ignore the setbacks of the pre-Soviet certainty, which is a greater risk than uncertainty for a large country with a population of 1.4 billion to bet everything on the certainty plans of the office elite.
For example, in real estate, more than half of the local government's revenue depends on real estate, which is very certainThe annual real estate sales are 100 million square meters, then, according to a deterministic logic, the annual plan target is also 100 million square meters or even more sales, as a result, the plan of the office elite is determined, but the market is random, there are countless dimensions changing the trend, and the annual sales are off a cliff, which is 100 million square meters;With more than 100 million square meters in October, there is no doubt that it is too dangerous to trust the certainty of the plan.
What are you most sure of?It will be to turn debts into debts so that local finances can operate normally.
In the past decade, China has strengthened its prescriptive regulation, and certainty is always so encouraging, but after the epidemic, people feel too much uncertainty, if we don't want Malthus's theory to be re-embedded in our ideology, so as to become a pessimistic country defined by American scholars, then we must accept a knowledge point: economics, like quantum mechanics, will conform to the law of uncertainty in various intertwined contradictions.
There is no need to pursue certainty, and by far Adam Smith remains the greatest economist, and his solution to uncertainty is the market economy. Let the invisible hand define the certainty in an uncertain market, and let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources.
So, what are the certainty risks for China now?
There are too many, just name one, and the right to throw bricks and jade.
China's economic aggregate will surpass that of the United States in the year.
Why do you say risk?
If China's economy enters a high growth rate, it is not aimed at the opponent, and there is no inevitable relationship between the growth and the opponent; on the contrary, if it is set to a certainty, it must be fought Investment cannot be an effective demand of the market, nor can it be transmitted to the people's livelihood, and the proportion of the people's income in it cannot be repaired, which is the risk.
The certainty of growth and the uncertainty of household income growth coexist, which is the biggest risk for China at the moment.
Here are my conclusions.