Look at the quantitative indicators and use wisdom to lead the peak.
Widely advertised, today TB resumed the largest of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, lithium carbonate and industrial silicon can be traded. Today, let's analyze how to play lithium carbonate
Lithium carbonate went very enchanting a few days ago, and recently began to stabilize down, and at present, ** and spot have fallen below 100,000 yuan, will it fall again?
To understand the lithium carbonate, it is necessary to have a deep understanding of the logic of new energy vehicles. Just by seeing the phenomenon that lithium carbonate has risen from 40,000 to 600,000 in the past few years, and now it has fallen back to less than 100,000, you should know that the industry is undergoing earth-shaking changes.
Lithium carbonate fundamentals
According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales of new energy vehicles from January to November 2023 will be 12.67 million units, of which the sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 12.24 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%;After the world's new energy passenger vehicles started weakly in 2023, Europe and the United States gradually strengthened. China's low base of new energy in November further stabilized global growth.
The sales of new energy vehicles have gradually increased, and new energy vehicles have also been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the demand side has been relatively strong.
According to the data released by Fubao Lithium Power Grid today, today's Fubao lithium carbonate index is reported at 93,500 yuan ton, **1,000 yuan ton, and battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 97,000 yuan ton, **1,000 yuan ton;Industrial-grade lithium carbonate reported 90,500 yuan ton, **1,000 yuan ton.
Before lithium carbonate became a battery material for new energy vehicles, it was about 3-40,000 yuan a ton, and it just rose to 50,000 tons at the beginning of 2021. It can be seen that the mining cost of lithium carbonate is very low. However, due to the crazy speculation in 2021 and 2022, lithium mines have basically changed hands several times, basically doubling them, so the cost of lithium ore mined now is about 7-80,000 tons. The cost of a mine that changes hands a lot should be close to 100,000 tons.
In addition, because the previous lithium carbonate was up to 600,000 tons, so in the first 2 years, large and small enterprises were busy expanding production, and the expansion basically required a 2-year cycle for the project, so the project investment was fast and just put into production in 2023, and the project investment was slow to start production in about 2024.
Now the fundamentals are still bearish as a whole. But it should be noted that if it falls again, the company basically will not have much profit.
Lithium carbonate capital side
The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has just recovered, and we are working on the main position data, and the data will come out as soon as tonight and tomorrow at the latest. You can pay attention to TB's internal live broadcast room, and if the data comes out at night, you can let the teacher in the live broadcast room interpret it.
Lithium carbonate technology
Lithium carbonate is still in a bearish trend in each cycle, with the weekly level being particularly bearish, and the daily level remaining in a nearly weak range**.
Trend strength
Judging from the Zhida Lingfeng Trend Strength Indicator, lithium carbonate is currently a bearish trend with 4 stars and a risk index of 2 stars. This is a relatively easy state to grasp, and you can actively pay attention to the opportunities brought by the pressure above.
AI Trend**
There is nothing new under the sun, history is always repeating, through the Zhida Lingfeng AI trend ** indicator, lithium carbonate will continue to decline. The principle of the trend indicator is to backtest historical data, find a similar to the recent **, and then fit the future trend. FYI!
Well, the fundamentals and technicals of lithium carbonate are still bearish. In this state, it is better to use the trend trading method directly, and pay attention to the short-term ** pressure above.
As soon as the ** of the Guangfu Institute has been restored, the TB live broadcast room should begin to analyze lithium carbonate at night. Please stay tuned to TB's internal live broadcast room.