On January 6, the 2024 JA Solar Eco-Circle of Friends New Year's Eve Meeting and New Product Launch Conference was held in Beijing, helping the global energy structure adjustment and green and low-carbon transformation with the great practice and pursuit of "developing solar energy for the benefit of all mankind".
Li Junfeng, executive director of the China Energy Research Society, mentioned in his speech that an important agreement was reached at the recently concluded COP 28 to triple the installed capacity of renewable energy generation by 2030. This year, the world may exceed 150-170 countries to install PV, the PV market is still growing, almost all countries are unswervingly promoting the development transition and energy transition, which is a foundation for everyone's firm confidence. In the past 30 years of photovoltaic development, it has been in positive growth, and there has been no year of less than double-digit growth, even in the financial crisis and the "531" period, there has been no less than double-digit growth.
He stressed that the continuous growth of the photovoltaic industry is not easy to come by. During the pandemic, almost all industries have encountered a variety of different challenges, while the PV industry has thrived. The current panic in the PV industry is not caused by the market, but by itself. Last year today, photovoltaic ** about 2 yuan w, 16 yuan w, in September** dropped to 1 yuan w, this year may be less than 9 cents. We give back to the society, not only to reduce costs and make them cheaper than fossil fuels, but also to leave investment or other value for the local community while making technological progress.
If a power station leaves 1 cent in its annual power generation, such as Inner Mongolia, if it gets 400 billion photovoltaic power generation, it will contribute to the whole country and can reach 40 billion income, which is a very beautiful thing for **, why do it cost 1 cent or even less?This has no value to users, no value to local **, and no value to ourselves. ”
Li Junfeng also specifically mentioned that the economic work conference proposed to encourage profitable investment. Reducing costs is not something that everyone should be happy about, it must be done in moderation, rather than infinitely low prices, zero cost, zero electricity price, which will not only weaken the investment value but also reduce the investment efficiency. Infinite cost reduction is not forced on us by others, and we cannot take our own path to death.
Finally, he expressed his expectations for the future development of the photovoltaic industry, and hoped that everyone would strengthen their confidence that photovoltaic has a bright future and mankind has a bright future. Each and every one of us has something worthwhile, including our investments.
Attached meeting shorthand (not reviewed by myself):
Li Junfeng: As a veteran, I would like to tell you a few things about the New Year. Now that everyone feels that there is a lot of sorrow, I would like to boost everyone's confidence, strengthen our ideals, and establish our confidence.
I will talk about three things.
What do you think about the global PV market?Just now Mr. Sun Xiao talked about climate change, I will be more pragmatic, just concluded in Dubai COP 28 reached a very important agreement to triple the installed capacity of renewable energy generation by 2030. What concept?Generally speaking, the global renewable energy is now 2000GW, and by that time it will be 6000GW, and photovoltaic will be about 1300GW globally in 2022 according to the base 2022 figures. Photovoltaics are long at an average rate, and we were able to achieve this goal at almost 4000g at that time, and there are still 6 years left, so it is clear when divided by how much each year.
This market is here, and it's not like you're half-hearted, a lot of people talk a lot and do too little when it comes to tackling climate change. In fact, this may be the case in other aspects, but from the perspective of using renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics to promote development and transformation, or from the perspective of energy transition, every country is afraid of doing less, and wants to do more. Mr. Jin Baofang said that he has been doing photovoltaic for 30 years, 30 years ago he sold photovoltaic 1 watt and 1 watt, and then a few kilowatts, and then a few megawatts, I just joked with Aiqing, who said that 50GW was bragging, but now I don't have a face to see people if I don't do 50GW, this scale has risen. It's not China alone, now more than 100 countries around the world, this year may break through 150-170 countries are installing photovoltaics, the market exists, and the market is growing, and everyone recognizes this, almost all countries are unswervingly promoting the development transition and energy transition, which is a foundation for everyone's firm confidence. We are very lucky to do this industry, there is no product, Mr. Jin Baofang went back to teach you a lesson, he will talk about any product he has seen?It has been positive for 30 consecutive years, and there have been no years of less than double-digit growth, including the financial crisis, including 531, and there has been no double-digit growth. Under such conditions, what do we not have to be confident in?That's the first question.
The second question is, why do we have such a problem?Under the conditions of the growing global photovoltaic market, this growth is hard-won, because after the global epidemic, all aspects have encountered challenges, almost all walks of life have resumed growth, and even some are declining, some are stagnant, and only this industry is thriving. Why do we panic?Everyone thinks of such a reason, a simple truth, that this atmosphere of panic is not caused by the market, but by ourselves. At this time last year, our photovoltaic was almost 2 yuan watts, and in June this year it was still 16 yuan watts, dropped to 1 yuan watts in September, and may be less than 9 cents this year, why is this so?A lot of people say it's a market, I say it's not a market, and those consumers, European dealers, are particularly against it, why are we doing this?I just sold 2 yuan watts, why are you selling 9 cents?Is it to go back to 11 yuan, the market is buying up and not buying down, why don't we learn from other industries?
All industries are raising prices when they are growing, and when the car is selling well, for example, Japan's Alpha is 1.2 million, take the car today, add 400,000, 300,000 and take it, or wait for half a year. Are they capable?Capable of. We want to give back to the society, we are not only reducing costs, our purpose of reducing costs is cheaper than fossil energy, and now it is obviously cheaper than fossil energy, for example, the average coal-fired power generation in the country is about 4 cents or so on average, and the fuel cost is close to 3 centsWhy did we get 1 cent?
You often criticize the local **, you must bring the industry to engage in photovoltaic projects here, I proposed ten years ago, can our technological progress leave a little investment or the value of technological progress to the locality?Power generation companies like Hui can take 3 cents, of which 5 cents or 1 cent to the locality, and the local will definitely welcome you. If a power station leaves 1 cent in its annual power generation, such as Inner Mongolia, if it gets 400 billion photovoltaic power generation, it will contribute to the whole country and can reach 40 billion income, which is a very beautiful thing for it, why should it be 1 cent or even lower?It has no value to users, no value to local **, and no value to ourselves.
* There are three things that we must pay attention to at this economic work conference, which are also the very important basis for our firm confidence.
First, in the 80s and 90s, keep in mind a sentence, Comrade Xiaoping talked about development is the last word, and this is how it developed, and now there is a sentence that the last word in the new era is high-quality development. The second sentence is to seek progress while maintaining stability, and now it is to promote stability with progress, which is better and more stable, and it is necessary to work faster. The last sentence that everyone has not paid attention to, there is a sentence between the lines, ** that says to encourage profitable investment. Our investment is not profitable, and everyone does not say that it is good, so what's the point?We have a power station is a feed-in tariff of 3 cents, and the local government is happy, you are happy, and investors are happy. If it comes down to 1 cent, who is still in favor of doing it?Reducing costs is not something that everyone should be happy about, and it is important to think about moderation. I have always said this, it must be done in moderation, not to say infinitely low **, zero cost, zero electricity price, zero cost, zero electricity price is still investment value, is there still investment benefit?As I said, these things are not forced on us by others, and we cannot walk our own path to death.
You young people often joke that we are going to go other people's ways, so that others have no way out. We must not take the road of tomorrow, let us have no way to go tomorrow. I hope that everyone will strengthen their confidence that photovoltaic has a bright future and mankind has a bright future. Each and every one of us has something worthwhile, including our investments.
Hope we have a better 2024, thank you!
Editor in charge: Li Zixuan.