Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a speech to the Diet that the Bank of Japan will step up its processingMonetary policy, which is seen as a harbinger of an imminent policy pivot by the Bank of Japan. Earlier, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino also hinted that the Bank of Japan could endNegative interest ratespolicy, providing a clearer signal for the market. According to market expectations, the Bank of Japan will end the monthNegative interest rateshas soared to 45%. Some are betting that the Bank of Japan will act as early as January.
1. Japan had no choice but to do it
Japan chose to endNegative interest ratesThe reason for the policy is that the interest rate level in the United States and other Western countries is generally high, which makes itJapanese YenContinued depreciation. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is about to start a cycle of interest rate cuts, which means that Japan will go against the global trend and re-establish its independenceEconomyRoute.
2. Signs of Japan's economic recovery
In the past, Japan maintainedNegative interest ratesThe policy is becauseEconomyWeak, but now the situation has changed. JapancpiData for 19 consecutive months**, indicates:EconomyThere has been a recovery. Despite a slowdown in November, Japan remains within a moderate inflation range. This is also an important consideration for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.
3. The pressure of Japan's debt problem
Japan is currently facing a hugeDebtQuestion,DebtThe scale is as high as 11 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 250% of Japan's GDP. Although the current level of low interest rates has lessenedDebtStress, butJapanese YenThe continuous depreciation has led to the continuous outflow of domestic assets, and the interest expense of Japan** is bound to increaseDebt crisisThe risk of an outbreak increases.
1. Fluctuations in global markets
According to historical experience, every time the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, it triggers all kinds of bad luck, and even triggersEconomyCrisis. For example, in 2000, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates from zero to 025%, followed by the bursting of the dot-com bubbleNASDAQIt started a decline of more than two years. Therefore, the market is both expecting and worried about Japan's interest rate hike, worrying that it will have an impact on global markets.
2. Changes in global investors
In the past, Japan itself had low interest rates andFinanceForexThe market is well developed and attracts the whole worldInvestmentswillJapanese Yenas".Internationaltokens", carried out a variety ofInvestments。However, with Japan's interest rate hike, borrowingJapanese YenThe cost of increasing globallyInvestmentsThe financing needs of the world are decreasingInvestmentsActivity is likely to decline globallyEconomyGrowth has an impact.
3. The risk of the outbreak of Japan's debt crisis
JapanDebtThe problem has always been that as the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, Japan's interest expense is bound to increaseDebt crisisThe risk of an outbreak increases. If Japan'sDebt crisisoutbreak, will be globalEconomyMake a big impact.
While every time the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, it triggers various problems and market volatility, but it does not mean that global markets will be unlucky. The rate hike comes at a time when the U.S. is about to start a cycle of interest rate cuts and around the worldEconomyThe moment of increasing downward pressure has increased the number of globalEconomyof uncertainty. Therefore, we have to be global for next yearEconomyremains cautiously optimistic.