I feel that I haven't done a combing for the current international market for a long time, and the employment situation in November was announced in May last week, and the release of this data does not consider his authenticity for the time being. It is still important for future economic guidance. Now that the data is already a fact. We're going to analyze it according to this employment data.
Obviously, the current non-farm payrolls data is completely opposite to the analysis in the non-farm payrolls trading plan we did on Friday, which means that last Friday's analysis needs to be completely overturned. After all, we are looking at the economy from the premise of a recession in the labor market. Now that the data are out, the U.S. labor market is not only not in recession, but rather dynamic.
Then, based on the premise of the stability of the labor market, the talk that the Fed will have to cut interest rates in the future due to the pressure of the labor market obviously does not exist. The purpose of high interest rates is to control inflation, but at the same time, it has a very good cooling effect on the economy. Therefore, our expectation of future Fed rate cuts is also reasonable.
It's just that this labor market data, whether it is the unemployment rate or the increase in the number of non-farm payrolls, for the market, is an expression of the resilience of the US economy and the rationality of the current high interest rates. It did not cause a recession and loss of control in the labor market. So in the next Fed speech, or on the interest rate decision. The employment data will be used as an endorsement of economic resilience. This means that high interest rates will continue for a longer period of time, and the corresponding dollar index will strengthen. After all, it is a contractionary monetary policy that will last longer. Naturally, it also has a suppressive effect on gold prices.
Therefore, for the current economic environment in the United States, it is more bearish**. At the same time, the job market was stable in November, and the impact of the manufacturing data, retail sales, factory orders, and durable goods orders released in December is also optimistic for the dollar. This rule can be checked and reviewed by yourself, and the quality of the previous non-farm data can be compared with the next data release.
After all, employment is stable, and it is natural that other fields must be more or less stable. Therefore, if you see that the labor market is stable, you can feel that the data of other industries should not be too bad. Therefore, there is a high probability that there will be a hawkish speech by the Federal Reserve in the future, reiterating the possibility of a soft landing. Thus continuously promoting the price of gold**.
Of course, this is only a reflection of the above internal economic data in the United States. We also have to consider the view that the Bank of Japan has recently released the probability of a possible interest rate hike in the future. I won't pay special attention to this in the near future, but I know that it may happen in the future. Because of the change in monetary policy on the Japanese side, the latest news is that the Bank of Japan** believes that there is no need to rush to cancel the last negative interest rate policy in the world this month, so the yen has weakened again in the past two days. Here I see a piece of news that Japan's political system is not stable, because the "** faction" investigated by "kickbackgate" has been seriously impacted, and the support rate of Fumio Kishida, who naturally relies on its endorsement, has declined. This does not seem to be conducive to changing monetary policy at this time.
So Japan, which was in a hurry to say goodbye to negative interest rates some time ago, is now wilting again, but this thing exists, but now the signs are getting smaller. In addition, it should be noted that in terms of time cycle, the increase in demand for festivals in Asian countries at the end of the year will also lead to a rise in the international market, basically seven or eight years in 10 years. It should also be the focus of our attention in December.
From a technical point of view, we still have to respect the current short-term trend of the international **, and from the perspective of characteristics, it is obviously a trend of moving down from the high point and hitting a new low at the low point. Therefore, an analysis of today's intraday trend is given at the current pace:
International ** intraday analysis: At present, the market is obviously moving down from a high point and a new low, so it is as bearish as possible for trading. The main distinction is that it is normal to short orders on **, and you can participate in buying and light positions. Considering that the market will release CPI inflation data this evening, the view on the evening data is bullish**, but there may be a situation where it will rise first and then fall. Therefore, the intraday recommendation is 2004 pressure bearish, below 1977 support bullish. 1977 is a 50% retracement of Fibonacci at the daily level. As a key consideration for support, you can plan to participate in trading during the day.
Personal opinions are for informational purposes only. As a trader, I have been in the market for 7 years, and the above content represents my humble opinion and is not used as a basis for investors. If you agree with my point of view. Welcome to follow, like, ** If you disagree with my point of view, you are also welcome to teach and correct. Personal originality, it is not easy, without permission, shall not be carried **, thank you for your understanding