Recently announced in NovembercpiThe data shows a year-on-year decrease of 05%, some believe that pork *** is causedcpiReasons for the decline. In fact, pig prices are incpiThe weight of the pig has been increased by 40% in the past year. However,InvestmentsThere is a saying in the market, "The dilemma is reversed, and if it falls too much, it will rise", which can't help but be reminiscent of a new roundPig cycleComing soon. However, it is worth noting that in still sticking to itPig cycleAmong the big guys, only one remainsZhou WeiwenOne person. This article will dissectPig cycleThe twists and turns as wellZhou WeiwenThe current trend of the pork industry and the possible future development path.
The current pig price has experienced a cycle that has lasted for 2 and a half years, but ** has been volatile, the pig price has not been able to take off for a long time, and the breeding ETF index has even hit a new low, manyInvestmentsThey have been sold out. Still, there is one person who still stands outPig cycleOn stage, he isZhou Weiwen。He manages several **, willMuyuan sharesBecomeHeavy stocksand far more than the secondHeavy stocks, which shows how optimistic he is about the stock. Zhou WeiwenThe accuracy of his judgment is very high, looking back at himMuyuan shareson the operational journey, on the previous roundPig cycleAnd he was involved. In the fourth quarter of 2018, he ** the company in large quantities, and held until the fourth quarter of 2019, just when the pig price bottomed out (12 yuan kg), the position was reduced, and a wave of rich returns was obtained. And this round, he was in the first place in 2021.
In the third and fourth quarters, pairs were addedMuyuan sharesAt that time, the pig price fell to a low of 12 yuan. In hindsight, his judgment was quite accurate, and the pig price andMuyuan sharesAfter the stock price continued to enter the third quarter of 2022, the pig price rose to 23 yuanZhou WeiwenAdd positions again, willMuyuan sharesBuying has become the number one of the ** he managesHeavy stocks, ** about 6% and has been held to this day. However, unfortunately, the timing of his purchase this time was timelyPig cycletop, and then the pig price fell back to 14 yuan kg, plus *** poor,Muyuan sharesThe stock price has been sliding all the way down and hitting new lows. Therefore,Zhou Weiwencurrently heldMuyuan sharesIt should be a loss, but he still sticks to it, with the concept of "dilemma reversal" in mind, and often reveals such a sentence in the quarterly report: "A good industry chooses alpha, and a dilemma reversal industry chooses beta".
ForInvestmentsIt's not easy to stick to a cycle, especially if it's like thatPig cycleAn industry with constant twists and turns. LikeZhou WeiwenSuch a big guy is very rare, and he chooses to insistPig cycleHis belief is based on his deep understanding of market trends and forward-looking judgments. In fact, he didMuyuan sharesThe operation shows his superb wisdom and outstanding vision. Judging from the previous operation records,Zhou WeiwenEvery decision was made accurately to seize the market opportunity and make him inPig cycleWe have always maintained a leading position on this big stage.
However, why this roundPig cycleWill there be twists and turns?We can look at this from another angle. Looking at the ongoing data, we will find that the spread of African swine fever is responsiblePig cycleOne of the main causes of the turmoil. In 2018, the rapid outbreak of African swine fever led to a sharp decline in the number of fertile sows, from 31 million to less than 20 million in just one year. The role of fertile sows is to produce piglets, and the piglets are raised to become fat pigs, which are exchanged for slaughterEconomyEarnings. However, due to the sharp reduction in the number of sows, it had a great impact on breeding capacity, in 2019Pig cycleAfter starting,Hogs**From 12 yuan kg** to 40 yuan kg, it has doubled. PigletsIt has risen from 21 yuan kg to 135 yuan kg, an increase of more than 5 times. However, highlyPigletsAs a result, the incentive for farmers to re-breed has increased, and in just one and a half years, the number of fertile sows has increased from less than 20 million to 45 million, an increase of 14 million. As a result, overcapacity has become a serious problem for hogs andPiglets**Fall back quickly.
However, farmers are reluctant to withdraw, and the number of breeding sows has remained high, and the pig price has even increased from April to October this year. Excess capacity cannot be effectively cleared, and this is a new roundPig cycleOne of the reasons for the twists and turns.
So how to interpret the recent pig price?First of all, it needs to be clear that pig prices are still at the bottom. Hogs**is 15 yuan kg,Piglets** for 245 yuan kg. And the number of fertile sows remains high, at 42.1 million, an increase of more than 11 million from before African swine fever in 2018. However, there are many people who will have a reduction in the capacity of the hog industry next year. The data shows that this year's low-cost self-raising and high-cost outsourcingPigletsare facing serious losses. According to a survey, the pace of capacity reduction in the industry is likely to accelerate non-linearly next year, which will drive a reversal at the bottom of the cycle. In addition, the resurgence of African swine fever has also been linked to this. According to a survey, there has been a resurgence of African swine fever infections in some provinces in the northern region, which could lead to a further decline in pig production capacity.
In the long run, the pork industry still has good development prospects. China is the world's largest consumer of pork, and the demand for pork is huge. According to **, China's pork demand will reach 56.51 million tons in 2023, while the current production capacity is only about 38.5 million tons, and the capacity gap is huge. AgricultureRuralMinister Han Changfu also said that in the next 3-5 years, China's pig industry will experience a transition period from a supply gap to sufficient supply.
At the policy level, China** has been taking a series of measures to stabilize the pork market. For example, import tariffs have been raised to limit the import of pork from African swine fever-affected areas in an effort to protect domestic pigsAquaculture。In addition, it has also increased support to encourage farmers to expand their scale, scientific breeding, and provide financial support.
On the whole, despite the twists and turns and challenges in the current pork industry, the industry still has good development potential in the long run. ForInvestmentsChoosing the right timing and target is very crucial, and likeZhou WeiwenSuch a big guy is herePig cycleThe active layout on the stage is also worthy of our reference and Xi. Only through an in-depth understanding of the industryFundamentalsand market trends, to be able to be inInvestmentsto get better returns.