Today, there is a Dongguan owner's "help post" in social ** crazy circle.
He spent 6 million to buy a 96-square-meter house in Songshan Lake, Dongguan, and was counting on doubling it at the time, but he didn't expect to smash it, and now no one wants 2.8 million shots, and he has been out of supply for half a year, so he can only wait for the legal auction, and his hair is gray.
In fact, this is not unexpected, as the younger brother of Shenzhen, Dongguan and Shenzhen are really difficult brothers, both of them have taken a roller coaster of housing prices rising and falling.
Shenzhen is the hardest falling first-tier city, while Dongguan is the second-tier city that rose the most in that round in 2020, and it is naturally the second-tier city that fell the most in the second-tier.
In 2020, housing prices in Dongguan skyrocketed at an alarming rateIt set a record of being the first in the country.
When the new crown epidemic broke out in the first half of the year, the national real estate market fell into a trough, and there was a cry of wailing.
In the first half of the year, the second-hand housing transaction volume was only one or two thousand units, and in June, the second-hand housing transaction volume exceeded 3,000 sets, making the Dongguan property market begin to usher in a big bull with both volume and price, and officially opened the chapter of the Dongguan property market.
After that, in 2021, Dongguan's real estate policy was fully tightened, and more than 10 regulatory policies were introduced, including the reference price of second-hand housing.
In 2021, the property market in Dongguan began to take a sharp turn, with both volume and price falling, and the number of new housing online signatures decreased by 33% year-on-year, hitting a new low in the past 11 years. The total amount of residential contracts decreased by 24% year-on-year.
This year, the first 11 months of the transaction 230,000 suites, a 17-year low!
For the whole year, it should be in 2About 50,000 sets. Compared to 6470,000 sets, the transaction volume is directly cut to the knee.
Recently, it happened to be the first anniversary of the opening of the purchase restriction in Dongguan City, and in the past year, how have the housing prices changed in various regions?Let's take a look at the data.
This picture makes many people look blind, and it feels as if it hasn't fallen much, because the average price of luxury houses and ** houses has increased. The average price has not fallen much as a whole. But looking at the actual situation, this one is even worse.
Now the overall environment of Dongguan is the same as other regions of the country, and now the number of listings is large, and the market is in the exchange of price for volume. From the perspective of specific regions, the most severe declines are the areas that rose the most fiercely that year.
Because the number of listings is too large, ** surges, whether it is a first-hand house or a second-hand house, if you want to sell it, you can only reduce the price. Look at how drastic this wave of price cuts is.
For example, Songshan Lake, a very large real estate in Songshan Lake, Golden Mile Songhu, is now a 2-word prefix.
At its peak, the total price of a 98-square-meter three-bedroom apartment was 6 million, and the average price was close to 6w.
Now, most of the listing prices of this type of house are around 3.3 million to 3.5 million **3 million, and the transaction price of the same type in March this year is still 3.8 million. It's completely cut in half.
In addition to the Golden Mile Songhu, there is also Songshan Lake Hongxi Nuoya, the benchmark second-hand community of Songshan Lake. At its peak, 97-square-meter houses were sold for more than 70,000 square meters. In 2021, a news of "Hongxi Nuoya listing price stands at 80,000+" swiped the screen.
Now, Vanke Hongxi Nuoya has fallen to 4, which is almost halved compared with the peak.
Basically, several popular disks in Songshan Lake are now unable to escape the fluctuations of the sharp fall.
Similarly, the sector that has fallen into the tide of second-hand housing price reductions is also a difficult brother in Nancheng.
In 2021, how high-profile Nancheng is, after the 327 New Deal was thrown out in Dongguan that year, the first quarter endedThe increase in house prices is still up 74%, and it is a roller coaster.
And now, in order to survive, developers on the new housing side have begun to reduce prices and sell them.
For example, the Hengzhao Mansion next to Nancheng City, the record price of the project at that time was 470,000 or so, and now ** is as low as 3. You must know that Vanke Yawanhui near here is sold for 6 prefixes. This ** is a big killing.
Since the sale of the house at the beginning of Hengzhao Mansion 3, Nancheng has hit the jumping price one after another!China Securities Yunting, Futai Jincheng and other projects have successively launched work-to-house and first-class houses, with a discounted unit price of about 240,000 yuan from the level.
The first hand has been reduced to this, and the second-hand has fallen even worse.
Vanke Golden Mile Huafu, located in the CBD sector of Nancheng, will have the highest 6 in 2021The average price of 90,000 yuan was submitted, and the total price exceeded 7 million.
Now, the house with the same type of house in the community is listed at 44w~4.80,000 , with a total price of 4.6 million 4.9 million, and an Aston Martin is directly missing in two years.
Basically,Whether it is Songshan Lake or Nancheng, the decline is 30-50%.Some have even been cut in half, which can really be seen everywhere, and this wave of ** has also pulled the housing prices in these two places back to ** in 2019.
Why did Dongguan fall so seriously in this round? I have summarized the following reasons:
1. The economy stalls
Dongguan has always relied on foreign trade to support half the sky, has always been known as the "world factory", Dongguan's foreign trade exports and Dongguan's GDP ratio is as high as 80%.
However, foreign trade is really difficult this year, and most months this year are still in negative growth, but in the first 11 months, there was a slight increase in the overall year-on-year comparison.
This is mainly due to the rapid growth of automobile exports this year, in the first 11 months of this year, the export volume of traditional fuel vehicles increased by 51% year-on-year5%；The export volume of new energy vehicles increased by 83% year-on-year5%。
For example, Dongguan mainly relies on traditional labor-intensive industries, and its export performance is very poor.
Dongguan has always said that it is engaged in industrial upgrading, but now the upgrading and transformation of high-end industries is not enough to support the rapid growth of the entire city's economy.
And in recent years, many labor-intensive enterprises have chosen to relocate to Southeast Asia, or go out of business.
For example, Yue Yuen Shoe Factory, the largest shoe manufacturing factory in Dongguan, has moved to Vietnam. Dongguan Foxconn also moved part of it to Zhengzhou, Henan, part of it to Vietnam, and part of it to India.
The export manufacturing sector has fallen sharply, causing the city to fall into a state of economic stagnation. In the GDP statistics in the first half of this year, Dongguan's growth rate ranked first in Guangdong Province15%。
Like Shenzhen, when Dongguan's exports can improve first, the property market can see hope.
2. **Surge
The number of second-hand houses listed in Dongguan has exceeded 100,000 units as early as late October, and from the data on December 5, the number of second-hand houses listed in Dongguan is about 1060,000 sets, straight to 11+.
From December 2022 to November 2023, the total number of second-hand houses in Dongguan was 28,707 units, with an average monthly transaction of about 2,392 units. Calculated according to the rate of decontamination in the past 12 monthsThe existing second-hand housing in Dongguan will take about 3 years7 years.
According to Cowealth data, as of the end of November 2023, the inventory area of first-hand residential buildings in Dongguan is about 40960,000 square meters, a slight increase of 3% month-on-month and a slight increase of 8% year-on-year.
According to the decontamination cycle, it is expected to be in 182 months, 7 more than the same period last year4 months.
According to incomplete statistics, there will be more than 50 pure new projects in Dongguan in 2024.
3. The market's confidence in Dongguan is insufficient
I took a look at the land auction data in Dongguan in 2023, which can be said to be quite deserted, with a total of 10 commercial and residential plots and 16 old renovated plots listed, of which 8 commercial and residential plots were sold, 2 were unsold, 11 were transacted and 5 were terminated.
Looking at the data, we know that in addition to the average floor price, the transaction data of the Dongguan land auction market in 2023 have declined sharply, and the transaction volume of the land plot has been directly "cut in half".
It can be seen that real estate companies do not dare to start rashly, firstly, it is indeed a shortage of funds, and more sales are set for production, and the goods in hand cannot be sold, and they dare to take land.
And whether it is an investor or just in demand, it is to sell down and not buy up, and when it falls, they are thinking that it will definitely fall, and they will suffer a loss if they buy early.
The entire transaction cycle has also been prolonged.
On the whole, I think that this round of housing prices in Dongguan has risen too fast, and now housing prices are returning to rationality.
Of course, this is not only a problem in Dongguan, but a problem in the whole country.
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