2023 is fleeting, 2024 is coming, what is the product line, expected return, and default probability of political trust products in 2024?
Through communication with a number of trust companies, asset companies, and urban investment companies, Lanxiang Trust Network has come to the following conclusions:
First, the product line
In 2024, the product line of political trust will mainly be:Jiangsu region, Chongqing region, Xi'an region, Chengdu region, Henan region, Shandong regionMain
In terms of product types, the regions with relatively good economies are mainly based on:Perpetual bonds are the mainstay, the region with relatively poor economy toNon-standard financing is the mainstay
In 2024, the proportion of perpetual bonds of political trust productsIt is expected to be around 65%., the proportion of non-standard financingIt is expected to be around 35%.
In 2024, the scale and number of political trust products will be comparedIn 2023, the overall volume will shrink by 20%.
The above data is calculated based on the maturity debt of the city, the scale of the trust company, the scale of regional local bonds, and the financing plan of individual regions.
2. Expected returns
The average income of political trust products in 2024 is as follows:
Q1: Average Earnings **616%
Q2: Average Earnings **612%
Q3: Average Earnings **618%
Q4: Average Earnings **633%
2024 political trust productsAverage returnsCompared to 2023, it will decreaseAround.
The above data is calculated based on multiple dimensions such as regional financing cost limit, regional average financing cost, urban investment maturity debt, and regional credit spread.
3. Probability of default
In 2024, the default probability analysis of political credit trust products:
Certain areasFixed financing and replacement trustsmay appearReturn in original packagingsituation,Occurrence of postponement (essentially fixed financing postponement).
Trust companiesActively managedIn a very small number of regions, there will be a short-term extension of a very small number of political trust productsThere are no long-term delays and no ultimate risks.
Characteristics of the area where the delay may occur:
1. Areas where non-standard postponement has occurred.
2. High-incidence areas of fixed financing products.
3. Areas with high financing costs and high financing frequency.
4. Areas with low administrative level and high financing frequency.
In 2024, the probability of deferred payment of political trust products is still relatively low, and the political trust products in high-quality areas areIn addition to deposits, national bonds, and local ** debts,The most secure financial productIt is basically impossible to step on the thunder to reduce the expected returns and put an end to false political trusts.
Summarize the analysis
Lanxiang Trust Network believes that:
In 2024, political trust products will still be the preferred financial tools for high-net-worth individualsAt present, the assets with the highest degree of security in China are the political and credit assets that are bound to the best creditThrough the redemption plan in Guizhou, we can basically determine that the political credit trust productsThe most extreme, the worstThe result is thisGuaranteed principal payment
With the advancement of local debt resolution, political trust productsThe volume and revenue will decline year after year, until two years later, it will completely withdraw from the market, high-quality regional political trust trust, is the last trust product for investors to determine the investment opportunityIn the future, the mainstream trust products will be net-worth products.
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Chengdu regional political trust issued by a state-owned trust company, with a term of 24 months, non-standard financing, and an interest rate of 69%。
Any questions you may have about trusts can be consulted with the author. (Do not disturb peers).