Corn market cost line failure, 2023 corn ** trend analysis.
Volatile market conditions.
This year's cereal** trend has been surprising. On the eve of harvesting, the ** of corn had reached 1. per kilogramAbout 6 yuan, the ** at that time was also optimistic. However, as the market entered the market, the supply increased, and the market was sharply **, all the way to the lowest point. The tide grain in the northeast has fallen to 0 per kilogram9 yuan below, while Shandong in North China fell to 13 yuan per kilogram, such a drop is beyond everyone's expectations.
However, there is a big doubt behind this fluctuating **, and that is that this year's cereal** does not look as logical as the previous two years. In the last two years, the factors supporting the formation of cereals** are: demand gaps, wheat**, and sowing costs. However, this year's situation looks to have changed, and those support measures don't look very effective.
In the past two years, the gap between supply and demand in the market has been an important factor in the increase in the price of cereals. After several years of decline, China's corn stocks have almost reached their lowest point, and at this time, the demand for corn continues to climb due to the large-scale recovery of pig production capacity and the turmoil in the global food market caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, there is a contradiction between the two crops, which contain and support each other, and together form the backbone of the entire corn market. The cost of grain production has played a great role in supporting the development of corn, especially in the past two years, with the enhancement of food security awareness, the state has repeatedly proposed to "ensure the reasonable income of farmers".
In the course of the year, though, that seems to have changed. In some parts of the Northeast, corn has fallen to the cost of production, but this has not stopped it from declining further. From another point of view, the first corn in the Northeast is not because it has fallen below the production cost line, but because as the temperature drops, and the corn harvest in the north is coming to an end, the food supply in the market has become loose. So, since the cost floor doesn't work, what is the logic of this year's cereals?
Read more: This year's cereal market has been unexpected. Corn is one of the most important grains in China, and its market is highly valued. On the occasion of this year's harvest season, there was a period of rapid development, which attracted widespread attention and heated discussions. But when cereals appeared on the market, surprisingly, the price of grains suddenly fell sharply, reaching a record low. In North China, Shandong fell to 13 yuan per kilogram or less, in stark contrast to the previous increase. This change not only exceeded people's expectations, but also caused people to reflect on cereals**.
changes.
In the past two years, the market has fluctuated due to the impact of demand gaps, wheat and crop production costs. First, one of the main reasons for the increase in cereal prices is the demand gap. At the same time, with the rapid recovery of China's pig production capacity and the turbulence of the international grain market, the continuous impact on China's grain market has made China's grain market demand for grain continue to increase, and the demand for grain is also increasing. Secondly, the two have the characteristics of "top" and "bottom", and the two interact with each other to form a supporting role for the marketIn the case of the first position, feed companies may use it as a substitute, which will have a certain impact on the demand for corn. The cost of grain production is one of the main reasons affecting China's food security, especially with the continuous fluctuation of China's grain market and the enhancement of food security awareness, the country's demand for the protection of the rights and interests of grain producers is also increasing.
However, this year's grain market looks to have a new logic. In some parts of the Northeast, corn has fallen to the cost of production, but this has not stopped it from continuing to decline. At the same time, the increase in corn prices in Northeast China is not entirely due to the fact that it is below the production cost line, mainly due to factors such as the cooler climate and the nearing end of the corn harvest in Northeast China. So, this year the logic of cereals *** and ** has changed.
Reasons for this year's cereals*** and **.
Through the analysis of the fluctuation of China's grain, it can be seen that emotion, transportation, logistics, and policies are important reasons for China's food.
First of all, emotions are the key to the trend of cereals this year. I think that in this year's cereals**, popularity is the first and foremost, and more important than other objective reasons such as climate. In the past two years, due to the ups and downs of cereals, many people involved in cereals have suffered, so this year's market performance has been more cautious. In addition, due to the relatively sluggish macroeconomic situation as a whole, coupled with the lack of sufficient confidence in the market, and the continued decline in corn this year, it is difficult for merchants to build positions calmly. And because of the first corn in the past two years, production enterprises are not in a hurry to stock up, so they are also accustomed to this. Feed companies are not so nervous, and the ** of corn is declining, so that they have new options, such as sprout wheat, brown rice, imported corn, barley, etc. This is how the market sentiment is changing. The mood on the supply side is more mixed. Before the corn harvest, some farmers still held on to the currency, but when signs of large-scale supply continued, their reluctance to sell was somewhat shaken. With the fall in food prices, farmers have become more determined to sell their grain. Although it is difficult to store due to the harsh climatic conditions, farmers are more afraid that their grains** will continue to decline in the future, so they are eager to sell their grains. As a result, the ** of cereals continued to decline.
Secondly, transportation and logistics are another reason for this year's cereals. In the past two years, China's grain transportation and transportation have had a great impact on China's grain market. If transportation and transportation are not smooth, it will lead to a decline in food supply and an increase in prices;Conversely, as the supply increases, the price will **. However, in this year, the logistics situation in the northeast can be described as a miserable situation, originally because of the tight supply caused by the increase in corn production, coupled with the dual pressure of road freight and rail freight, the grain market is in short supply, so that the grain continues to decline. Although there is a certain sales window, the supply pressure in North China, Shandong and other places is still increasing, so the ups and downs of this year largely depend on transportation and transportation.
In addition, the trend of China's grain has also been affected by some policy signals. In recent years, the state has repeatedly emphasized the need to protect the rights and interests of food producers, and has repeatedly introduced relevant measures to ensure the quality of food and other agricultural products. But this time, the United States** sent a different signal than in previous years. First of all, in the context of changes in world food and the growth of pig demand, the country has relaxed import controls on certain grains to replace imports, which in turn has caused a certain impact on China's corn demand. Secondly, in the current situation of the continued weakening of the corn market in Northeast China, the state has not introduced clear support measures, nor has it relaxed or adjusted the maximum purchase**, which has caused a certain impact on the market.
In short, the logic of this year's market has changed, and market sentiment, transportation, logistics, and policies are all important reasons for determining the market trend. Although this was still the case in the previous two years, due to the special situation this year, the ups and downs of ** were also limited by some new factors. To this end, a relatively in-depth analysis and research on the future trend of China's grain industry was carried out.