On December 26, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 2,900 points again and closed at 2,89888 points. The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both fell more than 1%.
Below 2900 points, can investors enter the market**;How do you do that?To this end, a reporter from Beijing Youth Daily conducted a small investigation.
**Risk release is nearing its end
In a random interview, the reporter noticed that investors generally believe that ** is below 2900 points, has been at the bottom position, ** risk release is nearing the end.
As the end of the year approaches, some institutional funds have withdrawn from the market, and this outflow is now nearing its end. Mr. Lin, a senior shareholder, said that in the last two trading days, the ** turnover was 261.5 billion and 260.2 billion respectively. According to his observation, the risk release of ** is basically coming to an end, "this year's single-day land volume appeared on July 21, with a turnover of 260.1 billion, and today it is at the level of this year's land volume." He said that this amount of land is also close to the level of 226.9 billion and 233.3 billion in a single day last year, and the timing is also coincidental, they all appeared on December 21 and 23 at the end of last year.
As for whether there is a bearish final blow in the market, investors are not in agreement;The more unanimous opinion is that it is currently at the bottom and that it is likely to be structured next year. When it comes to structuring, shareholders believe that the main reasons are that the structure is obvious in recent years, and the trading volume of A-shares does not support the full market. A snowball stock told reporters with a set of figures that from the perspective of turnover, a comprehensive rise in A-shares needs to consume huge funds;However, in the past three years, the turnover has been declining, with 25716 trillion, 22388 trillion yuan and 209 trillion yuan, without the entry of huge funds, it is impossible for A-shares to rise in an all-round way**.
Avoid companies that may violate laws and regulations
Although the risk has been released, the shareholders in the survey are more cautious about whether it is not, and there are roughly three reasons, one is that the funds are in the **;Second, companies that violate laws and regulations continue to be subject to regulatory pressure;Third, the performance risk may be released through the annual report.
Mr. Luo, a shareholder, said that recently, the regulator has been emphasizing that supervision should be "long teeth and thorns", and thunderstorms occur from time to time, such as the recent Weichuang shares 13300 million funds were swept away by the company's stakeholders, and the company's stock price fell for two consecutive days after the news was made public. Radio and Television Network recently announced that the company was filed by the Securities Regulatory Commission on suspicion of violating laws and regulations. "Its stock price fell by more than 9% today, and it is still unknown whether it will be able to stabilize." For the company that wants to be the first, Mr. Luo also said, "Try to choose those that have not violated laws and regulations in the past three years."
Aunt Wang, who has been in the stock market for 20 years, reminded shareholders to pay attention to the risks, "Taking artificial intelligence, which has performed well in stock prices this year, as an example, it is time to cash in on the performance again;If the annual report predicts that the performance is not satisfactory, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of its continued performance".
Some shareholders and basic people also said that the current market lacks a money-making effect, and they will observe it for a period of time.
Old shareholder tips: If *** can not be too heavy
If it is above 2900 points, how to arrange it ideally?
A reporter from Beiqing Daily noticed that the views of brokerages are also inconsistent, and they recognize the slight advantage of the small and medium-sized cap style.
Huaxi Strategy believes that the acceleration of plate rotation at the end of the year will become the main feature, and the large-cap style may have a short-term equilibrium due to the relative valuation comparison, but the pricing logic of large-scale style switching is not yet solid. Guohai Strategy believes that since 2021, the small and medium-sized caps have continued to outperform, with long-term characteristics, and the current small-cap dominance time and space may be halfway, and in 2024, we will continue to be optimistic about the style of small and medium-sized caps, and the growth may be better than finance, and the cycle may be better than consumption. Guojun Strategy has the opposite view, believing that the small-cap theme will come to an end, on the grounds that most of the sectors where small-cap stocks are concentrated have rotated**, and the valuation of small-cap indices is at a high levelIn addition, the decline in the trading advantage of small-cap stocks and the extreme deviation from the transaction volume indicate that the chip structure is concentrating towards the investors with the highest risk appetite in the market. However, under the difficulty of revising policy expectations upwards and the overall off-season of the economic sector, the trading structure of small-cap stocks will become unstableAt this stage, you should choose ** value stocks with low valuations and stable cash flows.
With more than 5,000 plates in the two cities, the speed of plate rotation has accelerated, and the difficulty has been increasing. In the interview, some old shareholders reminded shareholders based on their experience that they should not be in a hurry at present, let the market get out of it by themselves, and then intervene before it is too lateUnfamiliar industry and ** it is better to observe more and operate less;At present, it is the time for the brokerage to release next year's **, and its accuracy is not high from experience, or to observe the market more, and understand more about the impact of the policy on the industry and the performance. At the same time, they said that if they enter the market now, it is best to intervene in the industry that they are familiar with, have good expectations in the annual report and policy supportAt the same time, do not be overweight so that it can be dynamically adjusted according to changes in the market.
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Text: Beijing Youth Daily reporter Liu Shenliang.
Edited by Fan Hongwei.