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Recently, the situation in the South China Sea has become increasingly tense, especially the frequent escalation of provocations by the Philippines, which has attracted people's attention. Since last week, the Philippines has been making some provocative statements in an attempt to put pressure on China. During his visit to Hawaii, for example, Marcos Jr. said that the Philippines had begun reaching out to Malaysia and Vietnam in hopes of agreeing on a "code of conduct in the South China Sea" that would exclude China. In addition, the Philippines and the United States conducted a three-day joint naval and air exercise in the South China Sea, and later announced the first "joint counterterrorism patrol" with Australia, which will still be conducted in the South China Sea. These moves show that the Philippines is extremely concerned and worried about the current South China Sea issue.
However, these provocative actions did not achieve the desired effect of the Philippines and instead drew countermeasures from China. The Chinese Navy quickly launched a live-fire Xi exercise and blockaded the waters of the South China Sea, which not only brought great difficulties to the Philippines, but also demonstrated to the world the strength of China. In addition, Chinese attack planes also flew directly over the heads of Australia and the Philippines, which made the Philippines very angry. The Philippines originally tried to win over the United States and Australia to develop so-called "collective deterrence", but instead it was defeated by China, which made it clear to the world that China is a formidable adversary in the South China Sea. The Philippines' actions, by contrast, appear to be hasty and unrealistic.
For example, the Philippines has decided to use civilian fishing boats to form a so-called "Christmas convoy" in the disputed waters of the South China Sea to resupply the Sierra Madre stationed at Second Thomas Shoal. In addition, the Philippines has announced that it has enlisted "more countries" to participate in its performance in the South China Sea and plans to accelerate military cooperation with Japan. These actions have neither been supported by other countries nor have had the desired results, and the situation of the Philippines has become even more awkward. Overall, the Philippines' actions in the South China Sea show its deep concern and helplessness, but its attempts to rally other countries against China are unrealistic.
In contrast, China's attitude and actions on the South China Sea issue are more assertive and assertive, demonstrating China's strong power and influence in the region. Under such circumstances, the Philippines should calmly face the reality and carry out more cooperation and dialogue with China to achieve win-win development. However, in recent days, the Philippines' statement on the South China Sea issue has been neglected and dissatisfied by countries in the region. Marcos Jr. tried to portray himself as a "key player" in the South China Sea, only to find that his efforts were not supported and recognized by other countries. In this case, the Philippines has almost become an "outcast" among ASEAN countries.
For the Philippines, the key to whether it can get support from other ASEAN countries on the South China Sea issue is whether it can get support. However, at present, ASEAN countries generally have a wait-and-see attitude, and do not want to become pawns in the game of great powers, nor do they want to see Southeast Asia, a "land of war", become a second Middle East. The fact that the Philippines is now openly standing up and playing against China has already aroused the dissatisfaction of many countries, and ASEAN countries still have their own unknown thoughts. The original plan for ASEAN countries was to "invest" in Latin America and Japan, and then all countries would share the fruits of economic development. However, the actions of the Philippines** directly disrupted this plan.
Marcos Jr. jumped so high on the South China Sea issue that it not only reduced the space for mediation between other countries and China, but also swallowed all the money of the United States and Japan. For example, not long ago, Japan claimed that it would allocate 2 billion yuan to ASEAN countries to support local "military construction," but the Philippines relied on being the first bird to "put the bulk of it in the bag," and the coastal radar system for the Philippine army alone accounted for 600 million yuan. ASEAN countries are very dissatisfied with this kind of behavior. In addition, the Philippines is also trying to attract more countries from outside the region to patrol the South China Sea in an attempt to occupy a greater voice on the South China Sea issue. However, this practice is not well received in other countries.
The Philippines' desire to attract more countries from outside the region to muddy the waters in the South China Sea is not new. At this point, the foreign media's reports on this incident can also see clues. It can be seen that the actions of the Philippines have aroused a lot of disgust and dissatisfaction among ASEAN countries, which has also made the Philippines more and more isolated on the South China Sea issue. Although Marcos Jr. tried to boost his prestige and status in this way, the actual effect was counterproductive. Therefore, the Philippines needs to handle the South China Sea issue more prudently and prudently in order to better safeguard its interests and status.
In September, the Philippine defense secretary advertised that in addition to the United States, Australia and Japan, many countries, including Germany, France and Canada, expressed interest in "making their presence felt" in the South China Sea. This time, however, the attitude of the Philippine security ** has changed, and no countries have been named, only "many countries" have been vaguely stated. It can be seen that Marcos Jr. may have been "beaten" by some countries, and he does not dare to easily drag others into the water. Conducting joint patrols in the South China Sea is, to put it bluntly, a form of performance art.
As long as the United States and its allies do not dare to confront China in the South China Sea, no matter how many Western countries flood into the South China Sea and conduct joint patrols with the Philippines, the end result will remain that China has the final say on the situation in the South China Sea. In the face of the Philippines' continued provocations to provoke China, China has indeed fought back. From late October to early November this year, the US aircraft carrier "Ronald Reagan" was also stationed in the South China Sea, however, this did not delay China's attack on the Philippines. Even if other countries do send ships over, their "deterrent value" is not as good as that of American aircraft carriers. Therefore, the only "guest" that the Philippines can get is "how big a stage to lose". Moreover, there is not much time left for Marcos Jr.** to perform.
Since the first half of this year, the Philippines has continued to provoke China. Although the Sierra Madre vessel was previously described as "miraculous", it is now clearly unsustainable. The fundamental reason why the Philippines is so eager to transport construction materials in this region is that the ship is about to completely disintegrate. The vicinity of Second Thomas Shoal is now effectively under China's control, and once the Sierra Madre disappears, the Philippines will lose its excuse for a war of words with China. To some extent, this incident can be said to be the fault of Marcos Jr. During Duterte's administration, the situation of the Sierra Madre was assessed in the Philippines, and the ship was expected to be scrapped in 2020.
After that, it was renewed for another three years, because the quality of Philippine ships was unexpectedly good, or because the eastern powers gave the Philippines some "face" in consideration of the good interactive relations between China and the Philippines, we have no way of knowing. All we can see is that the Philippines is not "decent", and its "Sierra Madre" is also immediately "undignified". Marcos Jr. wanted to take advantage, but he suffered a big loss. Recently, Marcos Jr., the former leader of the Philippines, once again provoked China in an attempt to repeat the "South China Sea Arbitration" in 2016. However, such provocations will only put the Philippines itself in a more passive situation.
Looking back at the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration, when Aquino III cooperated with the U.S. South China Sea strategy and launched the illegal South China Sea Arbitration. As a result, China fought back forcefully and worked with other countries in the region to promote the implementation of the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea", which made the United States leave the South China Sea in disgrace. And Marcos Jr.'s hysteria this time will only shorten the life of the "Sierra Madre" and make the Philippines lose all its money. It is worth noting that today the strength of the PLA Navy has reached unprecedented heights. The overall situation in the South China Sea has been decided, and Marcos Jr. still wants to "repeat the classics", which will only make the Philippines itself fall into a more passive situation.
At a time when Japan and South Korea are about to make a move, China is worried that there is no "negative example" to set an example for the world. Since the Philippines "sleeps and sends pillows", then we are welcome. It is recommended that the Philippines recognize the situation and remain calm. China-Philippines relations have improved and developed in recent years, and we don't want to see all this ruined by some people.
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