It's not easy to be original, like, follow and share, oh, it's forbidden without permission**!
Today is Tuesday, January 2Entering the new year, corn is also a good start, not only the tail but also the beginning of the boom, part of the main body of the grain mentality has recovered, the market circulation of grain sources has decreased, the first trend of corn before the Spring Festival, has been basically formed, but with the spread of various news, the 8-11th of this month will be crucial for corn, will directly determine whether corn can appear real red**!
Corn since this year's harvest on the market, ** has not really come out of the red**, the overall ** to ** main, in fact, the most fundamental reason is that the gap has disappeared, if there is no huge imports, simply this year's bumper yield is not enough to make up for the gap, superimposed downstream demand continues to be weak, ** business is generally not optimistic about corn **, resulting in a large number of grain sources are hoarded at the grassroots level, the market circulation of grain sources has been maintained in a higher position, corn ** continues to bottom out is a matter of course!
And into January 2024, whether the one-time reserve can really be started depends on the 8-11th, if there is a relevant announcement next week, then the end of the corn ** can really get out of a wave of *** We don't look forward to the second expansion of 7.5 million tons, as long as the first wave of 4.5 million tons can be started, but I personally think that it is unlikely, unless the corn ** falls to a new height, As for the current rotation in various places, although many grain depots have indeed opened, but right** The lifting effect is not much, and it is more likely to go with the market, or even take the lead in lowering prices!According to the announcement of the grain depots in various places, after entering January, there will be grain depots that are being purchased to stop harvesting, which is a bit worse for corn!
As for the so-called year-end warping, the main reason is that the arrival in Shandong has decreased significantly, coupled with the fact that the enterprise is too deep, and the enterprise has made the adjustment in order to attract food sources, if there is no support from other aspects, the arrival of the goods will inevitably enter stage, more critically, there are only 40 days left before the Spring Festival, leaving only one month left for the majority of farmers to sell grain, and the temperature will cause the risk of mildew in some grain sources
Although the current feed enterprises, deep processing enterprises have not opened the stock acquisition, but according to this year's trend, even if the enterprise opens, the support for the first is not high, and the current inventory of feed enterprises is high, coupled with the existence of various substitutes, the demand for large-scale stocking before the year is not high, and even if the deep processing enterprises have the demand for stocking, as long as the first is repeatedly adjusted, in terms of the mentality of the main body of grain at this stage, the inventory will soon be solved, as for the Spring Festival Whether the business will carry out the first warehouse, it depends on which position the first fall in, for the current North China and Shandong region, higher than 12 catties of *** businessmen are basically indifferent, and even many *** businessmen have fallen below 1 for the purchase price of the grassroots15 yuan catty!
Whether the corn after New Year's Day will continue to pay attention to two points, one is the market volume, and the other is whether the grain reserves will start the first batch of 4.5 million tons of one-time storage, even if it is not started, but the purchase of grain depots in various places can no longer accompany the marketThere will be a market stage in January, but the possibility of a sharp rise is extremely low or it can be said that there is no, although it is not too pessimistic, but there is nothing to be optimistic about!Therefore, the main body of grain holding that has a plan to ship before the Spring Festival will run in the face of the stage, don't be greedy!
Wheat** is mainly caused by emotional grain sales, that is, the collapse of the mentality of the main body of food, originally an auction announcement had no practical impact, but after being over-interpreted, the current situation appeared, more and more grain holders gave up the struggle, reproducing the terrible situation in March, and the stage of the ** rise, enterprises to ensure that the terminal products can only enter the "self-help" mode again, but often this situation will not last long.
Before the Spring Festival, I think that there must be an opportunity, for the auction threat of grain storage, we can understand, the impact before the Spring Festival is not large, even if it is opened after the Spring Festival, the focus is on the delivery strength, the auction floor price and the transaction situation!Next week, we will focus on whether the arrival of enterprises will continue to increase. Finally, I would like to remind you that all kinds of news are flying in the market at present, and everyone must keep their eyes open and carefully distinguish the true from the false, and don't listen to the wind or rain!
Note: The above analysis of the current corn and wheat market** represents a personal view only. It is for reference only, not as an investment basis, and different opinions are welcome to leave a message to discuss. Investment is risky,** caution is required
List of high-quality authors