2024 will continue to be an extraordinary and unpeaceful year, with multiple military conflicts expected to occur, all of which are linked to the United States. In the midst of the war in 2023, Biden ** unveiled Pandora's box, and this year is destined to be a year of war. Through the analysis of the current international situation, it can be said that in 2024 several military conflicts will break out again.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been going on for a long time, from 2022 to 2024, and there is no sign of a ceasefire yet. However, it is expected that the scale of this conflict may be reduced. On the one hand, Russia faces threats from many fronts and is unable to devote all its energy to the battlefield in Ukraine. On the other hand, Ukraine's ** depends on Western military aid, and even if military aid is continuous, it will be difficult to regain lost territory. In addition, the fatigue of Western countries to aid Ukraine has begun to appear, and the issue of aid to Ukraine has exacerbated the internal ** of the EU and NATO. Moreover, Ukraine's largest foreign aid to the United States will be held in 2024 *** Once Trump returns to the White House or other Republicans become**, Ukraine's military aid could turn 180 degrees. Therefore, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue, the scale and intensity may slow somewhat, and it may even move towards a ceasefire and peace.
The current Palestinian-Israeli conflict occurred suddenly and has a long duration and is expected to last for some time. However, it is difficult to determine whether it will escalate into a sixth Middle East war. This depends mainly on the attitude of the United States, Israel and Iran. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is essentially a war of the best people, and if the United States and Israel directly target Iran, then the scale of the conflict will expand, and Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and other countries will find it difficult to stay out of it. However, the likelihood of Muslim countries in the Middle East uniting against the United States and Israel is slim, and the odds of victory are low. Therefore, even if there is a sixth Middle East war, it will be more of a contest between Shiite forces such as Iran, Allah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen against the United States and Israel, and the probability of Sunni Muslim countries such as Saudi Arabia participating in the war is low. In addition, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could trigger a crisis in the Red Sea, with Yemen's Houthis repeatedly attacking Israeli-linked cargo ships in solidarity with Hamas and warning U.S. forces in the region. However, the United States has encountered difficulties in taking action against the Houthis, leaving the United States with a choice. Therefore, while the Red Sea crisis looks serious, a large-scale military conflict is unlikely.
There is a potential threat of military conflict on the Korean Peninsula, in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait region, and is linked to the United States. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula could lead to the outbreak of war. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said at a plenum of the Workers' Party that U.S. policy makes war inevitable. While the threat from North Korea is not great for the United States, South Korea is at great risk. Kim Jong-un has redefined inter-Korean relations and is ready to "pacify the entire territory of South Korea" and even use nuclear **. North Korea has nuclear **, and if a war breaks out, the consequences will be unimaginable. Taiwan's 2024 election is closely related to the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and if Lai Qingde comes to power and implements the "** proposition", the mainland will definitely move like thunder. However, even in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the United States is unlikely to directly enter the war, but instead provide military aid and intelligence support. Because both China and the United States understand that once a hot war breaks out between China and the United States, it will be meaningless and costly. Therefore, even if a potential military conflict occurs, the scale of the conflict will not be too large, and the likelihood of a large-scale Sino-American war is low.
To sum up, 2024 will be an extraordinary and not peaceful year, with several military conflicts expected to be related to the United States. The Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue, but the scale is likely to be reduced. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict may escalate into a sixth Middle East war, but the unity and confrontation of the Muslim countries of the Middle East are less likely. There is a potential threat of military conflict on the Korean Peninsula, in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait, but the likelihood of a large-scale war is low. Although 2024 will be a war year, further analysis and ** will be needed depending on the specific changes in the international situation.