On December 15, the USD/RMB exchange rate, although it fell below 7 intraday10, fell nearly 200 points in a day, a new low since June, but I personally think that it is just a subtle ** on the way to the medium-term rise, and it is not worth making a fuss about at all.
The reason why I say this is because there are three reasons that determine the strong position of the US dollar against the yuan, at least in the medium term, even if the Fed does cut interest rates by 075%。
The world's largest economy determines that the United States will always be the leading force in the global economy.
The world's largest military power has determined that the United States will always be the safest haven for global capital.
When the Russian-Ukrainian war will end in some year and month, when the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not stop in any year or month, and when Russia and even North Korea have repeatedly issued nuclear threats to the world, the dollar's status as the first international currency will only become more unshakable.
An Evergrande debt of 244 trillion has already made the whole country jump and panic all day.
As everyone knows, the total scale of domestic debt has exceeded 650 trillion yuan, which is more than 266 times that of Evergrande, and the specific composition is as follows
1. More than 60% of the debt of non-financial enterprises;
2. **Debt of more than 27%;
3. Residents' personal debts are close to 10%;
4. The debt of banks, ** and other financial institutions is less than 1%;
5. The total of other debts is less than 2%.
The giant representative of the debt of non-financial enterprises is neither Zhongzhi Group, nor Evergrande and Country Garden, but the highway and subway companies.
The total debt of the national expressway has reached 75 trillion, with an annual loan interest of at least 225 billion, and a loss of 1 in 202229 trillion.
China State Railway Group*** had a debt of 6 at the end of 202211 trillion, with an annual loan interest of at least 183.3 billion, and a loss of 695 in 20226.1 billion.
In reality, there are many non-financial enterprises like highway and subway companies, which rely on bank loans to tear down the east wall and make up the west wall, and 60% of the non-financial enterprises have a debt of about 390 trillion yuan, which will only get bigger and bigger.
As for the debt of more than 27% of the ** is about 176 trillion, everyone knows that it is impossible to directly create any output value by ** itself, except for the sale of land.
Although it is difficult to sell the land now, in order to maintain the meager salaries and benefits of civil servants, and in order to subsidize various high-tech trillion-dollar tracks, the urban investment company can only continue to take the land and let the snowball of debt continue to roll.
But it is impossible for paper to wrap the fire forever, because the creditors of non-financial enterprises and ** debts, seemingly banks, are actually depositors.
When a large number of savers begin to make ends meet and have to continue to withdraw their bank deposits to support their daily lives, bank cash flow will eventually be exposed to the only way out of hyperinflation.
The future of hyperinflation has been visible to the naked eye, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar can be played
At present, the US dollar deposits of some small and medium-sized banks in China are more than 50,000 US dollars, and the annual interest rate is as high as 52%。
Even if the Fed cuts interest rates by 075%, the annual interest rate of US dollar deposits of some small and medium-sized banks in China is still more than 4%.
The annual interest rate of RMB deposits is currently only 225%, and then experts are still looking forward to the fact that the window for a rate cut in the yuan is about to open again.
In particular, wealthy people keep exchanging renminbi into US dollars, and remitting them to overseas banks for storage through various channels.
As mentioned above, everyone who understands knows that even if the USD/RMB exchange rate breaks 7, it is only a short-term ** in the medium-term uptrend.
If you don't believe it, we'll see.