Overnight, the spot **strong**, the highest intraday touched 2047$69, the lowest touched in 2023$79 and finally closed at 2035$99. In today's European session, ** extended its rally and is currently hovering around $2,040.
A-shares suddenly fell!
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded a six-day winning streak, and the Dow hit an intraday and ** all-time high. As of **,The Dow rose 043% at 3724835 points, continuing to hit a record high, the S&P 500 rose 026% at 4719At 55 points, the Nasdaq rose 019% at 14761At 56 points, the three major stock indexes all recorded a six-day winning streak.
According to HSBC**,In 2024, the S&P 500 could close at 5,000If the Fed can tame inflation without tipping the economy into recession, this target could prove to be conservative.
On this occasion, US Treasury yields continue to be sharply**.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell to 4397%，**84 basis points。The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3913%，** 12 basis points。30-year Treasury yield**118 basis points, down to 4066%。
Analysts saidThe downward trend of the U.S. Treasury pivot is the general direction, and short-term trading is sufficient, waiting for a catalyst for interest rate cuts。In the short term, the Fed's interest rate meeting has eliminated the risk of knocking the market, but the expectations are also quite sufficient, waiting for the catalyst for interest rate cuts, indicating the disruption of the inflation path (rent sub-item) and the Treasury's bond issuance (term premium) in the first quarter of next year.
In addition, WTI** and cloth oil both hit the highest ** prices since December 5.
The U.S. WTI** closed higher on Thursday, hitting its highest price in a week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI)**2$11, up 3%, closed at $71 a barrel$58
Brent for delivery in February***2$35, an increase of 32% to close at 76 per barrel61 USD.
According to the calculation of the most active contracts, WTI and Brent*** on Thursday both hit their highest prices since December 5.
It is also worth mentioning that this afternoon, A-shares were raided again.
A-shares opened high and low today, and the three major stock indexes dived in the afternoon. As of **,The Shanghai Composite Index fell 056%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 035%, the GEM index fell 065%。Nearly 3,500 stocks in the two cities traded 733.2 billion yuan throughout the day.
So, what's going on?
Analysts believe that it may be related to a news from the periphery. This afternoon,Major WeChat groups suddenly had a Reuters message swiping the screen, related to the level of deficit rates in 2024。Probably due to thisThe data was below market expectations, resulting in a greater impact on the bullish sentiment of the entire market, which in turn triggered a dive**.
However, judging by the entire report, the news came from two sourcesIt has not been officially confirmed, and its authenticity remains to be seen。However, at present, the market is "rather believing in what it has than believing in it" sentiment is pervasive, and market confidence and weakening expectations still need to be reversed. **In fact, it is "a mirror", since the second half of this year, the weakening of expectations has gradually become a big problem, and it still needs to take great efforts to solve it in a "quick knife to cut the mess".
In addition, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
Putin rarely apologized!
Russia's Vladimir Putin made a rare apology today when a retired old man complained to him about eggs, according to Reuters on December 14. "I apologize for this, it's a failure ...... the work," Putin saidI promise that this situation will be rectified in the near future
In the near future, the direction of the wind in Russia is worth watching. Putin said,The Russian side is ready to improve and develop relations with the United States, but the imperial mentality of the other side is the main obstacle to this process.
In addition, a rare scene was staged in Japan.
On December 14, local timeJapan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasunori Nishimura and Assistant to the Prime Minister Tsuko Ueno submitted their resignations to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida。In addition, Takeshi Takagi, director of the ** faction of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and chairman of the Diet Countermeasures Committee, Miyashitaro, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Junji Suzuki, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, and Hiroshi Matsuno, chief cabinet secretary of Japan.
1. Hikaru Hagiuda, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's government affairs research committee.
1. Hiroshi Seko, secretary general of the House of Councillors of the Liberal Democratic Party, also submitted his resignation on the same day. Recently, a number of members of the "* faction" are suspected of receiving kickbacks from the income of political fundraising rallies held by the faction, and the incident caused a huge shock in Japan.
Separately, the latest opinion polls show that Fumio Kishida's cabinetThe approval rating is down 4 percent from the previous month2 percentage points to 171%。This is also the first time that Kishida's approval rating has fallen below 20% since he became prime minister, and it is also the lowest approval rating of the cabinet since the Liberal Democratic Party returned to power in 2012.
Jintou.com: 1215-day ** trend analysis
At present, the dollar index is relatively weak, and the Fed's monetary policy has basically been clear, whether it is the previous rate hike or when the rate cut will start later, the market should have enough time to respond. And when will the ECB's monetary policy pivot?I don't know, at least yesterday, according to Lagarde, they haven't considered cutting interest rates, although we don't know how hard their mouths are.
So now the dollar is expected to cut interest rates, and the euro has not yet entered, which also drives the weakness of the dollar index. But did the weakness of the dollar reflect a sharp rise in the side yesterday?** There is no big rise, so it is relatively strange.
According to the weakness of the U.S. index, in such a good environment as the low U.S. bond yield, there should have been a certain increase yesterday, but it didn't happen, so there are two points: 1. It's not time to pull up, maybe it's going to rise today;2. Fake, unable to pull up significantly.
Jintou.com.
From a technical point of view, the relative strength of the daily level, a certain support of the 4-hour level of 5**, there is an upward opportunity in the trend, which also satisfies the first point above, perhaps today's pull-up. So let's change the angle, if today still can't pull up, the trend is like yesterday, a little rush or fall, then it may be the second point above, false, false, there is a chance that it is yesterday to build the top.
Let's go to the perspective of trading, the above two situations, if there is a chance to pull up today, we can trade, and if it is false, we have no way to short, because the fact still needs to be verified by the trend basis, which does not constitute the basis of trading. Therefore, from a trading point of view, you can go long, because it is based on a realistic trend, and you cannot go short, because the conditions for short are not yet met.
Let's look at the weekly level, this is the level we have been talking about, the current trend of the weekly level is back above 5**, the trend can not return to the weekly level below 5** this week, or, next week can not greatly engulf this week's gains, then the weekly level ** is back to strong, we also have to go long.
Therefore, in terms of intraday trading, it is a relatively safe strategy to follow up along the 4-hour level of 5**, or follow up around 2033 35, but the target is relatively difficult to find, because we must always be wary of a fall, not that it will fall sharply, and we can only put the target at a relatively conservative position around 2040-2043. Of course, the big rise is another matter.
Having said that, it is currently the stage of policy change, that is, the whole stage of fundamental change, ** is also the stage of change, whether it is to build the top or has to gather momentum upward, it is not very certain at present, technically speaking, the 4-hour level here is constantly sideways, and the situation of the relay has been not the most beneficial to the bulls, and the bulls have to perform early.
Disclaimer: The above information is for reference only and is not used as a basis for buying and selling!Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market!