Improve the accuracy of sales forecasts 0712 .

Mondo Health Updated on 2024-01-31

**Sales volume and sales are never easy. There are as many reasons as there are customers that could cause ** to be inconsistency: misread sales pipelines, customer budget cuts, competitors, market changes, product defects or underavailability, etc. Any salesman with sales targets can find an excuse to explain why things didn't go according to the "set" plan. It is the basis of production, and thus the basis of inventory, costs and even income. The root of many chain problems is inaccuracy. We need to rethink the accuracy of sales**.

First of all, let's figure out the meaning of **. Generally speaking, **mainly includes sales**, products** and demand** and other categories. They are related, but there are distinct differences. Revenue and sales revenue are the two categories you should focus on.

Revenue**: A review of the level of income on future financial statements. Income includes sales revenue, annuity income, investment income, and so on. This is an estimate of each revenue, which is different from the sales revenue. Typically, a company's finance department conducts revenue based on reports from other departments, historical data, and its own judgment.

Sales Revenue**: Sales revenue is an estimate of the value gained at the time the transaction was concluded. For example, if a customer signs a $50,000 contract on June 25, that's the sales revenue. However, the actual payment of the goods may not wait until after the delivery, receipt and inspection. There may be a long time lag between sales revenue and actual revenue.

Sales Performance International has 15 years of experience in improving the performance of sales people and sales managers. The company has found that sales management and sales people are equally important to improving performance. Sales are part of sales performance, and improving the accuracy of sales is one of the most desirable results that can be achieved by improving sales performance. Sales Performance: Some of the international company's customers have seen a more than 95% increase in sales** accuracy. How can I improve the accuracy of my sales?The answer is simple: follow these eight fact-based principles.

Principle 1: Take advantage of existing sales opportunities.

The existing sales pipeline, i.e., the current opportunity, is the best information to make a sale. If sales opportunities are limited today, no amount of hope or optimism will make up for the sales revenue. Of course, if the sales cycle is shorter than the sales cycle, then the existing sales opportunities may not cover all the revenues, but you must think twice when you "assume" that future sales opportunities will be much better than they are today. Unless you have a specific plan to bring in more sales opportunities, don't assume you've already gotten those sales opportunities. If you want to have an accurate and higher level**, then you should start creating more sales opportunities.

Principle 2: Strictly follow the sales process, and sales are the amount and timing of future sales revenue. Some of the ** are customer-based, and you need to determine whether each customer should be included in the **. Others** are rough estimates of revenue based on sales history, market share, seasonality, and even the salesperson's personal engagement.

It's no secret that salespeople are usually quite optimistic and confident. How many salespeople will admit in public, even if there is the slightest chance that he may not be able to negotiate a certain deal?How many salespeople believe they can "put things right" even when things aren't going well?These attitudes are what make them salespeople, and many companies recruit them for these qualities. Their opinions—or hopes—obscure the truth. Inaccuracies are exploited and are often overestimated rather than underestimated. In this case, product inventory is over and revenue is not at the planned level.

The higher the certainty of these three factors, the more accurate the weather forecast.

The accuracy of the sale** is built on the following factors:

The precise status of the progress of each opportunity in the current sales pipeline.

Based on past experience, the odds of winning a sales opportunity in a given situation.

An estimate of when the transaction will be completed under these conditions, based on past experience.

The higher the certainty of these factors, the higher the accuracy of the sale**.

Now let's see how we can improve the accuracy of these three factors in practice.

At the heart of an accurate approach is the evaluation of opportunities against established principles to determine which opportunities should be included and which should be excluded. The principles of the evaluation should be based on the following: where the opportunity is in the sales processWhat stage the customer is at in their buying process;What is the quality of execution of the current sales process;and how likely the opportunity is to materialize at each stage based on past experience.

In the long term, the accuracy will continue to improve as the business gains experience, follows the sales process more rigorously, measures the above three factors, and applies them to the behavior.

Principle 3: Divide the types of opportunities.

First, the methodology must accurately reflect the composition of the opportunity. There are two main types of sales opportunities. Most of Sales PerformanceInternational's clients have a few "critical" opportunities in their pipeline—those that are large and critical to meeting their sales targets. The remaining opportunities fall into another category. In cases where you can divide an opportunity into the two types described above, you can make a separate decision for each type of opportunity.

The first way is to make a key sales opportunity. This should be based on a detailed analysis of each key opportunity. Each key opportunity must be evaluated against a process-based approach to determine whether it should be included. The first part of the sales is to determine which of these key sales opportunities will be realized within the ** period and the revenue contribution that each will bring.

The second way is for non-critical opportunities. Non-critical opportunities are also referred to as "piecemeal" opportunities, as these smaller opportunities typically make up the vast majority of the sales pipeline. This is the case with the size of the remaining opportunities after the key opportunities have been excluded. Overall** is the sum of the two, i.e., key opportunities** plus non-critical opportunities**.

Some businesses may only have key opportunities. They may only have a few big opportunities in their sales pipeline. Due to the small number, each key opportunity can be carried out independently**.

Some other companies may have so many small-scale opportunities that it is impossible to analyze each opportunity independently. The approach to these opportunities is to base them on the probability of a historical deal being closed based on historical data and the stage they are at in the sales pipeline. This is described in more detail later in this article.

In most of the clients of Sales Performance International, there are both critical and non-critical opportunities. They use each of the above two methods to calculate the total sales value. Even if all opportunities are small, if some of them are considered critical, they can still be analyzed independently.

Principle 4: Post-mortem results.

It is essential for any business process to continuously monitor its performance in order to improve its effectiveness. In particular, it should be included in the list of those who have not been achieved, whether they have been achieved or those that have been achieved, both on target and on exceedance. One of the main manifestations of a well-managed company is that it is consistently accurate**.

We should review the process on an ongoing basis to improve its accuracy. Here's how:

Effectively compare the difference between the actual sales revenue obtained and the sales value.

Determine whether the original estimate is accurate.

If the deviation is large (overestimation or underestimation), find out why.

Revise the process or estimate to avoid future revisions.

Deviations occur for the same reasons.

Principle 5: Customer Engagement in Sales**.

A sale is an act that is carried out by a customer. Why not involve your customers, especially existing ones, in the sales processIf you have a very close relationship with your client and you are able to bring more value to your relationship, then don't hesitate to discuss your future cooperation with your client. Maybe you find it embarrassing to ask a straightforward question: "How much do you expect to spend in the future?"But there are some more tactful ways to ask questions that can help you improve your confidence:

When do you think you will be able to find a business provider that meets all of your criteria and make a decision?”

What do you think of our company's chances of success in the current situation?”

Think about it, are there any other factors that might make you postpone making a decision?”

Are there any recent personnel or organizational changes in your company that may have influenced your decision-making?”

How do you feel about our company compared to our competitors?”

Will the current economic environment have a considerable impact on your purchasing decisions?These questions are a validation of the assumptions behind what you've done, and to see if new factors have emerged that you weren't aware of.

Principle 6: Define the stages of the opportunity.

A sales pipeline is an umbrella term for a collection of existing sales opportunities. It has two dimensions—the value of the opportunity, and the time it takes for the sale to close.

As opportunities are qualified and enter the sales pipeline, they become "A" opportunities. As the sales process progresses, these opportunities will go through several stages, from A to B, B to C, C to D, and so on. For an opportunity at each stage, the value of Sales** is the amount of revenue that the opportunity is expected to generate during that stage.

Before any conclusions can be drawn about the benefits of the sales pipeline based on historical circumstances, each stage of the opportunity must be precisely defined, both qualitatively and quantitatively. If this is defined only on the basis of subjective opinions, the results must be imprecise at all. If it is fact-based, then the results will be quite precise, as a combination of certain deterministic factors (environment) will produce consistent results.

The easiest way to define the stages of these opportunities is to have a clear sales process, and the sales stages are defined in terms of the actual amount of completion in the sales process, and the opportunities are strictly categorized according to that definition. These definitions should be clear and consistent for different sellers or different sales opportunities. Just as a weather forecaster must rely on precise terminology and accurate measurements, sales managers are no exception.

Principle 7: Historical data** sales volume.

There are two main elements to sales revenue**: the amount of sales revenue and the time when sales revenue is obtained. For sales revenue amounts**, "historical" means "what is the probability that an opportunity will actually close when it reaches a certain stage?"."You can think of it as odds. A long-term follow-up analysis of a sales process can provide you with the answers.

Many sales processes have an "initial" chance, which is very useful before gaining more experience. This is a simple measure of whether a company has a good sales automation system. If a business has a well-functioning sales system, these odds can be drawn after a few months.

Principle 8: Historical data** sales timing.

When revenue is earned, i.e., when the opportunity ends, is also based on history. In particular, things like "When will the revenue from a Phase A opportunity be earned, but what about a Phase B opportunity?""Wait.

Sales ** usually always have an element of both objective fact and subjective judgment. Necessary subjective judgment must never be excluded. The balance between these two factors is key to improving accuracy. The more facts are based, the more accurate the results will be. The facts are: the company's historical sales;How well each opportunity is fulfilled for a given accountConfirm our assumptions with the customer;And you use the lessons you've learned from the sales process and past behaviors to improve your current process.

This article is from *** Sales Director Information (non-profit organization;CSO Information;Assist sales practitioners to better engage in business development).

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