The property market has undergone a big reversal!
Regarding the property market sales data in November, have you all read it?After several months of favorable policy release, there are only a few cities that have really recovered, most of the second-tier cities, as well as third- and fourth-tier cities, the property market is still cold, what is the problem?
I couldn't figure it out until I saw a heavyweight report from the central bank this morning, and I figured it out!
What is the focus of this report, don't worry, I will explain it to you at one time!
First, it is equally important to revitalize existing loans, improve the efficiency of existing loans, and optimize the investment of new loans to support economic growth
To put it simply, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of the use of funds, and through transfer + write-off + displacement re-lending, so that the stock credit can complete the capital cycle in the shortest possible time
This kind of operation method, in the bank's internal language, is to eat more than one fish!
Second, let's look at the issue from the bank's point of view, improving the efficiency of the same loanIt is nothing more than to increase the interest income of the credit, but also to increase the income of other asset packages derived from the loan!
Judging from the current credit delivery situation, there are two main types of loans that are very likely to be prioritized for revitalization, namely:
Non-quality loans that crowd out too many financial resources and are at risk;
Quality loans that have not yet shown risk signals, but are growing at a slower pace;
Why?The risk coefficient of the former is relatively high, there is a certain risk of overdue, and there is also the possibility of bad debts, and the risk coefficient of the latter is low, but because the debtor has a good ability to repay, this kind of customer is a very high-quality credit C-end in the eyes of the bank
Revitalizing this part of high-quality loans is very simple to operate!
Third,Why should the good end revitalize the stock of loans?
The relationship between supply and demand in the property market has changed significantly, and as we all know, in the past two decades, our credit expansion has been anchored by land and housing, but now?The supply and demand of the real estate market have undergone structural changes, and the credit center must also change, so the anchor supporting credit expansion will begin to soften!
Recently, Lao Pan also said that it is necessary to take the initiative to adapt to major transformations, optimize the sustainability of bank profits and credit delivery, revitalize the stock of loans, and let them flow moderately from traditional real estate credit and platform credit to the real economy, which is the current optimal solution!
Fourth, finally I want to tell you that real estate as a pillar industry, this is an established fact, no need to refute, monetary and fiscal efforts to promote the development of real estate, this policy direction, has not changed!
But the next way to save the property market, it is very likely that some subtle changes will occur, such as revitalizing the stock of loans, adjusting the way of credit growth, the inertial development of the past, our credit scale has always maintained a growth rate of more than 10%, but the future growth rate, it is likely to fall to less than 10%!
We must jump out of real estate to re-look at the opportunities in the real industry, and next, there will be a lot of money invested in advanced manufacturing, specialization, special innovation, green science and technology, and small and micro enterprises!
What does this mean?I don't need to say more, next onOnly 5% of high-quality cities will usher in dividends!
To put it bluntly, this is what Mr. Jiang often says4+7 citiesIn these cities, a large number of new middle-class groups will be born, and they are the new people who support the city's real estate investment!
In other words, no matter how good your career development is, as long as you don't deploy your assets into 4+7 cities, your efforts are not worth mentioning in front of your assets!