Recently, the Philippines has repeatedly caused incidents in the South China Sea, invading the waters of Ren'ai Jiao in China's Nansha Islands, and continuing to hype up and reverse right and wrong, and make wanton accusations against China.
What do Filipinos think about the behavior of the Philippines?
Tan Zhu found Herman Laurel, a well-known Philippine political commentator, who is also the director of the Philippine "Asian Century" Institute of Strategic Studies and the founder of the Philippine BRICS Policy Research Association. Herman Laurel, who has devoted many years to researching Asia, especially the way China and ASEAN get along, shared his observations.
Mr. Tan: Since the second half of this year, the Philippines has frequently invaded China's islands and reefs in the South China Sea, exaggerating tensions in the South China Sea, and slandering China for bullying the small
Herman Laurel:I believe that the Philippine Coast Guard and some Filipino civilian vessels deliberately provoked the incident because they were carrying out the "clever project" of the United States.
The United States and we boasted about the project, so we learned the name of the project. This project is led by retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Raimondo Powell, in collaboration with Filipino counterparts such as the Philippine Coast Guard, as well as some Filipino ***. They planned, planned and implemented the project, confronting, provoking and confronting the Chinese People's Armed Police Force Coast Guard Corps.
All of this is aimed at deliberately creating tensions in the South China Sea, especially in disputed areas between the Philippines and China, such as Scarborough Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal.
China's use of large ships and large ships is a good thing, and the superiority in numbers and size of the Chinese People's Armed Police Force Coast Guard actually avoids a more serious real confrontation, because if the two sides are of comparable size, the fleet conflict may be more imminent.
But in any case, the West will portray China as a bully, which is the real purpose of this project, and the goal set by the United States - they use the so-called "confidence in the transparency of reporting" to constitute "black propaganda" against China. And it is said to be transparent because the West has brought cameras, staff, etc., to record the process and report it to the Filipino audience and the world.
In its project proposal, the United States states that its goal is to make China pay the price. I think everyone can understand what that means – the United States wants to damage China's reputation.
Once upon a time, the Philippines had a very productive and friendly relationship with China. There are many bridges of cooperation between us, such as the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, which has made the Philippines economically advantageous.
But Marcos, the Filipino **, apparently had his own ideas about the American arrangement, and he never explained to the Filipino people why he turned back to the United States. On the South China Sea issue, Marcos's policy is even more hostile and aggressive.
However, the Filipino public is not concerned about the South China Sea dispute.
Asia Pulse can be said to be a polling agency, and its purpose is to understand the wishes of people in Asia. In September 2023, a poll showed that only 7% of Filipinos are concerned about the South China Sea dispute, while 93% are really concerned about high prices, inflation, employment, rampant crime, and drugs.
Now, even within the Marcos family, there is a **. Marcos's sister, chair of the Philippine Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has been criticizing the U.S. base deployment in the Philippines and U.S.-created tensions in the South China Sea.
Mr. Tan: After the hype of the Ren'ai Jiao incident, there is not a single ASEAN country among the countries that support the Philippines, does this mean that the Philippines has been isolated at the level of regional diplomacy?What kind of South China Sea do countries want to see?
Herman Laurel:I think it's clear that ASEAN doesn't want tensions to escalate.
In an interview with a local Philippine newspaper, I said that the U.S. Air Force and other military forces interfere in the affairs of the Philippines in the South China Sea, while ASEAN does not like U.S. interference in the South China Sea.
Although the ASEAN countries have been polite to each other and have not directly named the Philippines, they have not joined the Philippines in its own actions, but have isolated the Philippines.
I think there have been some comments by leaders such as Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, indirectly mentioning the Philippines and warning the Philippines not to become a battlefield in itself. This is a very clear expression of Singapore's concerns, and it conveys the same concerns of ASEAN countries.
I am also in contact with the embassies of some ASEAN countries in Manila. In my conversations with them, I heard them express their countries' concerns about the Philippines' current actions in the South China Sea.
In fact, the situation created by Marcos and the United States has also caused concern among our own people about ***.
Marcos and his cabinet of security members have announced that they are shifting the country's focus from internal security to external security, which means that they are doing the work of defending the territory without really figuring out who the threat is.
This policy shift misleads attention to external security, but it is not a real threat, but a mirage, leading to a neglect of attention to internal security, and a deterioration of the domestic security situation.
Not long ago, a serious terrorist attack occurred at the National University of Mindanao in Malawi City, killing several FilipinosIn another province, there was also an incident on a bus.
Therefore, the actual trouble of this ** is constant. Marcos' public approval rating has dropped by at least 15 percent due to opposition to his erroneous policies.
These domestic situations have shown that 2024 will be a very difficult year for Marcos.
The United States has exerted a lot of pressure on the Philippines to continue to contain China. But I think the vast majority of Filipinos are also doing their part to try to reiterate the Filipinos' true views and perspectives on China, which are friendly, welcoming, and productive.
Mr. Tan: You have said that the economic transformation and sustainable growth of the Philippines are inseparable from maintaining close cooperation with China and ASEAN
Herman Laurel:After Marcos took office, the Philippines' independent foreign policy and friendly relations with China and other Asian neighbors have ushered in a major U-turn, turning to the United States, which has caused many problems for the Philippines, and the most serious potential impact may still appear in the economic field.
It is clear that the engine of the global economic recovery from the two-and-a-half-year Great Depression is China.
The European Union is now in the depths of recession, Japan's real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of this year showed negative growth for the first time this year, while the International Monetary Organization recently raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 54%, the outlook for 2024 remains bright.
You must know that such a China is not only the largest partner of ASEAN, but also the largest partner of the Philippines.
However, Marcos** has canceled many Chinese construction projects, although China has not had any negative economic impact on the Philippines.
I have been reminding my fellow citizens that the lessons of 2014 must never be forgotten. At that time, Aquino**'s miscalculation made it impossible for China's bananas worth billions of pesos to be exported to China to enter China, and banana exporters in the Philippines could only watch their bananas rot in one rejected document after another.
Therefore, it can be seen that a wrong prediction of the Philippines may lead to a difficult situation for ordinary Filipinos today. We keep reminding the people of our country that we don't want these things to happen again.
Perhaps only China can really drive the economic development that the Philippines needs in the coming years. Next year, for example, the United States may not have the financial resources to provide assistance to the Philippines, Japan may not be able to provide assistance because of the economic recession, and the Asian Development Bank may not have time to take care of the Philippines because it still has some old projects to continue.
In the coming months, if we succeed in stopping the United States from undermining the good relationship between the Philippines and China, we can continue to look forward to a better future.
Therefore, we hope that in 2024, the Philippines will turn things around.
**: Yuyuan Tan Tian WeChat***