Throughout the day**, the Shanghai Composite Index was almost unilaterally downward, with the opening as the highest point, ** as the lowest point, and the bald and barefoot long black line ended the whole day's trend!
This trend was actually expected by Angkor. Yesterday and the day before yesterday, Angkor expressed distrust of this round of ** since 2930, and earlier, almost a week ago, the risk had been fully warned!
Angkor believes that there must be some small partners who, according to the previous reminder, have reduced their positions in A-shares and increased their positions in U.S. stocks.
If you look at it at the moment, A-shares were reduced above 3,000 points at that time, and U.S. stocks were added just before the explosion, the timing was still quite good!
Moreover, if you say it with hindsight, this ** to about 3000 points, it has given another chance!Because Angkor is actually not optimistic about this time!
As for why, in fact, it was clearly written in the review article the day before yesterday!
So the question is, at the moment, can we still do such a conversion?
We can continue to wait patiently, tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision, which will have a certain volatility in the US stocks, if the US stocks are strong and obvious, it should be a strong adjustment, or even just ignore it!
If you get out of such certainty, it means that the U.S. stock market is heading for a new high!
Then any adjustment is an opportunity to increase positions!
On the other hand, the Shanghai Composite Index!
When the adjustment will end, the jury is still out!
Judging from the support line drawn by Angkor, the current closest support for the Shanghai Composite Index is at 2950!This position has been broken once before, and tomorrow, the support of this position will be tested again.
If 2950 can't be supported, a new low is almost inevitable, and the next support, look at 2885!
Angkor has repeatedly emphasized recently that when a big opportunity comes, it must be generated after breaking 2900 points and hitting 2885!
However, to get out of such a trend, it is best to have no external force in the middle of the process!In fact, we also know that in recent days, there have been external forces intervening!
On the one hand, it is the continuous and substantial outflow of foreign capital regardless of it, and they mainly smash liquor and new energy;On the other hand, it is the GJD represented by Guoxin Investment and Securities, which mainly focuses on the direction of big finance and state-owned enterprise science and technology
If they step in and make a move in the middle, that's not a good thing.
Countless facts have proved that these actions or some so-called policies have short-lived the adjustment time, but have made the bottom of the market miss again and again!
That's what we need to focus on!
There are several features of today's board:
1. BSE 50 alone**.
This shows that the funds are going to the small and medium-sized micro enterprises under the weakness;
2. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 191%
Today's weights are clearly falling.
This also shows that GJD has no action, in fact, it is a good phenomenon, and it is not a bad thing to accelerate to the bottom!
3. The turnover continued to shrink.
To be honest, today's turnover is not shrinking too much, but only the volume is a good thing, indicating that the over-the-counter funds feel that the best is cheaper, and if you want to bet, there should be a lot of funds that are consistent with Angkor's point of view, that is, I think that breaking 2900 is a good opportunity, right?
4. Northbound capital outflows.
The large outflow of northbound money can also be interpreted as an avoidance of uncertainty in the evening Fed meeting, but at present, it is almost 100% not to raise interest rates, so what is avoided in the northbound is the uncertainty of A-shares.
5. ** Rise and fall more, and the fall in the afternoon is more obvious.
Judging from the noon review, ** still rose more and fell less, but there was an obvious drop in the afternoon, ** the number of ** was only 1589, ** the number of more than 3500.
In such a situation, there is not much money-making effect. However, the weaker the market, the more funds are in place.
What do we do next?Angkor has a few sincere suggestions:
1. There are only structural opportunities in A-shares.
This structural opportunity is still related to big tech, such as multimodal AI, computing power, etc.;
2. Hong Kong stocks have a high cost performance.
Hong Kong stocks are also adjusting today, and the adjustment is relatively modest!The more Hong Kong stocks are, the more cost-effective they are.
3. U.S. stocks have a high degree of certainty.
U.S. stocks look at the early morning resolution and Powell's speech, basically even if it is bearish, it is also a small negative, even if it is an adjustment, it is also a small adjustment, we can lean on this direction!
Of course, it is better to have a certain correction to be a good opportunity to increase positions!
Well, the above is for reference!Analysis