is about to enter the "heavy snow" solar term, but Sichuan is embellishment with warm sunshine, staging an autumn scene. Yes, it's autumn – because the cold air is not strong enough and not positive enough, most of the Sichuan Basin is still lingering in autumn, and then there is a wave of sunny weather, and the viewer can't help but ask: "How long does it take to come in winter?"”
On December 6, the reporter learned from the Sichuan Provincial Climate Center that when it just entered November, it was not surprising to see short-sleeved shirts on the street, and from November 1 to 6, the average temperature in most parts of the Sichuan Basin was 17-19 °C, which was 2-4 °C higher than the same period in normal years. This is the warmth that has continued this autumn - this autumn (September 1 - November 30), the average temperature in the province is 11, ranking the first highest in the same period in history. The cold air is not without effort. From November 10th to 13th, a moderately strong cold air arrived in Sichuan, bringing a strong cooling to Sichuan, which was abnormally warm in the early stage, and the average temperature dropped by 66 °C, of which the average temperature in most parts of the basin dropped by 8-10, is a strong cold air process in autumn in recent years, cooling at the same time, there is precipitation, and there are 6-7 northerly winds in some parts of the basin.
Seasonal distribution map of Sichuan Province on December 6.
Despite this, the pattern of warmer weather has not been broken. In November, the average temperature in Sichuan Province is 120 °C, 1 higher than the same period of the year1°C, the fifth-warmest November on record. In such a state, autumn is naturally "reluctant" to leave, and at present, most of the basin is still enjoying the gorgeous and lush, colorful and warm autumn romance in the warm sun.
The stay in autumn also affects the rhythm of winter.
Taking Chengdu as an example, according to the observation data of Wenjiang National Meteorological Station, the perennial winter time in Chengdu is November 29. From 2016 to 2022, the "goal" of winter was completed in November, of which 2021 will start winter on November 7;2022, which experienced the warmest November (the average temperature in Sichuan Province in November 2022 was 128°C, the highest for the same period), and it also managed to reach winter on the last day of November. This year, winter in Chengdu is destined to be late. Let's look at Deyang. According to the historical data of the past 30 years, most of the years in Deyang start winter in late November, and only the winter of 1994 was "postponed" to December 11. This year, by the end of November, the average temperature in most parts of Deyang is still above 12, and at present, Deyang will not enter winter until mid-December this year, which will be a rare late in the past 30 years.
Anomaly distribution map of average temperature in Sichuan Province in autumn 2023.
Will Sichuan suddenly get cold in December?Will winter "come overnight"?
According to the medium-term weather forecast, on the 10th and 12th, Sichuan does have a weak cooling and precipitation weather process, and the temperature will not be as warm as recently, but before that, it will be a period of fine weather. Overall, the average temperature in the province is expected to be 6 in December5-7.5. Higher than the same period in normal years. Except for the northern part of Aba Prefecture, the northern and western parts of Ganzi Prefecture, and the northwest of Liangshan Prefecture, the average temperature is 0.0 lower than that of the same period in normal yearsAround 5, the average temperature in the rest of the province is 0 percent higher than that of the same period in normal years5-1.0℃。
At the same time, it is worth noting that in November, the average precipitation in the province was 208 mm, 8% less than the average for the same period of the year, and the precipitation in December is expected to be the same as normal. The weather is dry and dry, and it is expected that the forest and grassland fire danger meteorological level in the southern part of Ganzi Prefecture and the northern part of Liangshan Prefecture will be level 3, and it can reach level 4 in some periods, and the forest and grassland fire danger meteorological level in the rest of the forest area in the province will be level 2, so it is necessary to pay attention to fire source management.