In October this year, in China's new SUV market of 10-300,000 yuan, the proportion of plug-in hybrids reached a record high of 161%, with pure electric 18The 9% share is very close. In other words, in China's most mainstream SUV market, plug-in hybrids have been on par with pure electric vehicles.
In the first 10 months of this year, the sales of new SUVs of 10-300,000 yuan increased by 11 percent year-on-year5%, an increase of 61 in absolute sales40,000 units. And this 61Of the 40,000 units, 56% was contributed by plug-in hybrids.
Plug-in hybrids dispel the concerns of mainstream consumers about the high fuel consumption of SUVs, and make SUVs more suitable for home use. From January to October this year, the proportion of SUVs in the new car market of 10-300,000 yuan has reached 511%, while in 2022 the figure is 489%。
So, how much impact does the plug-in hybrid SUV, which seems to have great growth potential, on fuel vehicles in the mainstream market?What kind of new competitive landscape will latecomers trigger?
We will divide it into two segments of 10-200,000 yuan and 20-300,000 yuan for analysis, which corresponds to the core SUV camp of independent brands and joint venture brands.
Starting from 2022, plug-in hybrid SUVs of 10-200,000 yuan will show explosive growth, and annual sales will increase by 327 year-on-year1%, and the market share overlaps with pure electric vehicles. From January to October 2023, the market share of plug-in hybrid SUVs with 10-200,000 yuan will reach 146%。
In contrast, sales of gasoline SUVs in the same price range fell by 23% year-on-year in 20224%, and the market share has also increased from 92 in 20216% fell to 772%。In the first 10 months of this year, although the sales of fuel SUVs of 10-200,000 yuan basically stopped falling and stabilized, in the context of the rapid growth of new energy, the market share of fuel SUVs has fallen below 70%.
The initiator of the vigorous development of the 10-200,000 yuan plug-in hybrid SUV market is BYD. The two core models, Song PLUS DM and Song PRO DM, focus on two market segments of 15-180,000 yuan and 12-150,000 yuan respectively, achieving full coverage of mainstream family SUVs. In this year's attack of major independent brands, BYD still occupies nearly 65% of the 10-200,000 yuan plug-in hybrid SUV market.
Other brands with relatively high market shares are currently in a slightly different market situation.
Deep Blue and Geely Galaxy have formed a single-product driven pattern, and Deep Blue S7 extended range version and Galaxy L7 have become the second echelon of 10-200,000 yuan plug-in hybrid SUVs. Although Haval has a higher overall market share, this is based on a larger number of products and product definitions aimed at multiple market segments such as mainstream household and light off-road.
So, under the impact of plug-in hybrid SUVs, what changes have occurred in the sales of fuel SUVs of 10-200,000 yuan?
Taking the 10-200,000 yuan hot-selling fuel SUV Haval H6, Changan CS75 series, and Boyue series as examples, when the Song PLUS DM and Song PRO DM exploded in 2022, the sales of the three fuel SUVs were indeed greatly impacted, and the annual sales declined respectively. 0% and 339%。But in 2023, the sales of Changan CSC75 series and Boyue series have rebounded a lot, driven by the first models. The Haval H6, which has no change in products, continued to decline by 10% year-on-year in the first 10 months of this year6%。
On the other hand, after the update of this year's Champion Edition model, the sales volume of Song Plus DM stabilized at around 20,000 units, and the year-on-year sales growth in the first 10 months of this year was only 74%。And the sales volume of Song Pro DM in recent months has also stabilized at 1Around 60,000 units.
In the 10-200,000 yuan SUV market, a very important concept for consumers to buy plug-in hybrid SUVs is as an energy-saving version of traditional fuel vehicles. Therefore, when BYD takes off in 2022, it does cause chaos in the entire SUV market at the same price.
On the one hand, independent new energy sequences, split new energy channels, and create a sound volume for the overall situation to enter new energy, and several star plug-in hybrid SUVs are also gradually increasingOn the other hand, the fuel vehicles that still account for the mainstream of the market will be updated, the cost will be reduced, and the price difference with plug-in hybrids will be maintained, focusing on the market under 130,000 yuan, so as to reduce the cost of the whole life cycle and resist the penetration of plug-in hybrids.
Therefore, the SUV market of 10-200,000 yuan will enter the melee stage next, Geely Galaxy, Changan Qiyuan, and Deep Blue will continue to put pressure on BYD on the mainstream plug-in hybrid SUV. At the same time, Changan and Geely have not stopped changing fuel SUVs, even if the volume is not large, but this is a market that is still huge.
In the SUV market of 20-300,000 yuan, because of the existence of Model Y, pure electric has always been much more eye-catching than plug-in hybrids. In the first 10 months of this year, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in the SUV market of 20-300,000 yuan exceeded 25%, and it has exceeded 30% in individual months, but the proportion of plug-in hybrids has been hovering around 10%.
Until October this year, the proportion of plug-in hybrids in the SUV market of 20-300,000 yuan jumped to 16An all-time high of 6%. The main reason is that *Question M7 has begun to be delivered.
For a long time, the leader of the 20-300,000 yuan plug-in hybrid SUV market is BYD, and its market share has reached 57 this year7%。The two core models, Tang DM and Corvette 07, are BYD's main forces at this price point, with a combined average monthly sales of 1About 40,000 units.
However, in October, the M7 topped the sales list of plug-in hybrid SUVs with 200,000-300,000 yuan, and if follow-up orders can be retained and delivered in a timely manner, sales are expected to continue to reach new highs. Another highly competitive model, the Lynk & Co 08, has also reached the mainstream range.
In this ** range, plug-in hybrid SUVs have to face mainstream joint venture fuel SUVs with stronger market inertia and more conservative consumption. Moreover, the armor (operable offers) of these models is thicker, and it is obviously more difficult to bring down the HP (sales).
Taking the mainstream SUVs of Volkswagen, Toyota, and Honda as examples, the combination of Toyota R**4 + Veranda has had a high degree of sales stability in the past three years, and the combination of Volkswagen Tiguan + Tanyue has reached 23 this year after a continuous declineWith a 5% increase, only the combination of Honda CR-V + Haoying is still in a downward rhythm. Overall, the average monthly sales of mainstream SUVs of the three joint venture brands are still stable at more than 20,000 units.
Therefore, the plug-in hybrid SUV of 20-300,000 yuan, the product is far from keeping up, the number of optional products is small, and the explosive products are less likely to appear. If the ** comes to more than 250,000 yuan, the car use scene will be more scattered, and consumers' demand for brand added value and personalization will be stronger, but there are only a handful of plug-in hybrid SUVs with high added value.
The outbreak of the M7 may be a turning point, because a large number of consumers of the M7 are new energy vehicles for the first time, and their transformation to new energy vehicles will fundamentally shake the foundation of the mainstream SUV of the joint venture brand.
But in this market segment, it is far from enough to rely on BYD and Wenjie. In the plug-in hybrid SUV market of 20-300,000 yuan, there is a certain mismatch between product supply and user demand, and mainstream joint venture brands still have a strong moat in this market.
As the new energy vehicle market changes from a "dumbbell-shaped" to a "spindle-shaped", plug-in hybrid will be the main driving force for the expansion of the middle market. Because whether it is the mainstream household market of 10-200,000 yuan, or the middle and high-end market of 20-300,000 yuan, plug-in hybrid can be a direct alternative to fuel vehicles, unlike pure electric vehicles, which are more used as a supplement.
In the mainstream household market, the process of replacing gasoline vehicles with plug-in hybrid SUVs has begun. However, in the mid-to-high-end market, the product supply of plug-in hybrid SUVs is relatively small, and there are even fewer high-spec products with a sense of quality. At the same time, in the case that fuel SUVs still account for more than 60% of the market segment, updating products under reasonable conditions to create new ideas for consumers can still bring huge sales beyond the volume.
As a result, the mainstream plug-in hybrid SUV market is far from saturated. Although BYD now has a strong monopoly, the expansion of plug-in hybrid SUVs and the penetration of fuel SUVs into fuel SUVs must have more "BYD".
Plug-in hybrids as an alternative to fuel are still a long-term tug-of-war.