Our reporters Gu Mengxuan and Xia Xin reported from Guangzhou and Beijing.
Recently, the international *** hit a record high and was quickly sold off, triggering a sharp fall. The RMB-denominated *** has also fluctuated significantly, causing widespread concern in the market.
On December 4, the New York market once rushed to the $2,150 per ounce mark, up more than 3% in the day, hitting a record high. Subsequently, the price of gold fell rapidly, and as of the 7th, it accumulated more than $100 per ounce.
Affected by this, the **AU99 listed on the Shanghai **Stock Exchange99 fell back after reaching 487 yuan per gram on the 4th, and the retail price of pure gold jewelry of some domestic brands fell to about 615 yuan per gram on the 7th after standing at a high of 630 yuan per gram.
According to Kuwind data, on December 15, COMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) ** reported 2018$3 oz;As of press time, the Shanghai ** Stock Exchange listed **AU9999 472 per gram99 yuan.
Welcome the inflection point of relaxation
Wang Xiang, manager of Bosera Index and Quantitative Investment Department, pointed out that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end and will usher in an easing inflection point. However, there is an impulse to take profits near the historical high, and the short-term comex*** net long position is too fast, and there is a need for adjustment.
At 3 a.m. Beijing time on December 14, the Federal Reserve released a statement on the December 2023 FOMC meeting (Federal Reserve interest rate meeting), once again announcing a pause in interest rate hikes.
According to data provided by Bosera**, US inflation expectations have dropped significantly. In December, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded to 694. Expectations of 62, inflation expectations have dropped significantly, and one-year inflation expectations have dropped from 45% to 31%, five- to ten-year inflation expectations from 32% to 28%。"This combination is not good for ***. Wang Xiang said.
For the first stage of the first month, Geshang Fortune Jinzhang investment researcher Bi Mengjiao pointed out that as a non-interest-bearing physical asset, it often ushers in the best opportunities when the return of other assets is poor.
First of all, from an economic point of view, we may be in a global recession. Given the fear of an economic downturn and risk-averse, investors are more willing to avoid risk, leading to a rise in gold prices. The global manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) was 49 in November3. The U.S. manufacturing PMI is 467. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is 443. All of them are below the line of prosperity and withering, reflecting the overall recession of the global economy.
Second, last week's U.S. ADP data (an economic indicator often used to measure the job market) fell short of expectations, and the market speculated that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in December, that is, the nominal interest rate was likely to show a downward trend in the future, making *** again**.
Finally, global central banks continue to buy gold, and global central bank gold purchase demand remains strong in 2023, supporting the overall trend.
This week's adjustment was mainly due to the US dollar index and Treasury rates climbing after the US non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and coupled with the 'hawkish' signal released by the Fed chairman, which led to the downside. Bi Mengjiao said.
**Annualized compound rate of return of 7%.
The reporter noted that in August this year, there was a large divergence in the trend of domestic and international gold prices. Has the wide spread between the inside and outside of gold prices been corrected in recent months?
Wang Xiang pointed out that in September this year, the highest price difference between domestic and foreign countries was 30 yuan + grams, and now the price difference has converged significantly to 7 yuan grams, but it is 12~1.8 yuan gram is still a distance. During the convergence process, the onshore gold price will underperform the US dollar**.
Bi Mengjiao pointed out that the international gold price and the domestic gold price are basically in a positive correlation, but due to the influence of factors such as the pricing system, rates and time lag, the short-term may show divergence, and the fluctuation of domestic gold prices tends to lag behind. After several months of adjustment, international and domestic gold prices have basically converged.
Central banks around the world have also shown continued enthusiasm for gold purchases. According to the data of the World ** Association, global central bank gold purchase demand will remain strong in 2023, with gold purchases reaching 387 tons in the first half of the year, a record high for the same periodIn the first three quarters, gold purchases reached a record 800t, up 14% y-o-y. At the same time, data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that at the end of November, the People's Bank of China's ** had increased for the 13th consecutive month.
In this regard, Bi Mengjiao pointed out that the central bank's allocation** mainly considers safety, liquidity and returns. First, it is considered a safe asset and a store of value by the central bank because it is more stable in the face of credit risk than other assets such as government bondsSecondly, with strong liquidity, the central bank can quickly enter the market without distortionFinally, while returns are not the main motivation for central banks to buy, the compound annualized yield of around 7% over the past few decades has provided investors with relatively substantial returns.
The proportion of China's foreign exchange reserves is still low, although the proportion is still less than 6% after continuous holdings, compared with the proportion of more than 40% in Europe and the United States. Wang Xiang said that increasing the proportion of foreign exchange reserves will be conducive to the diversification of the reserve structure and the stability of the local currency and assets in the US dollar contraction cycle.
Investors invest rationally
As for the future of assets, Sino pointed out that due to the issuance of bonds by the U.S. Treasury, the reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to reduce U.S. bond holdings, and the current relatively strong economic expectations, the long-end yield of U.S. bonds is expected to remain high, and the short-term yield is still suppressed by interest rates and the U.S. dollar index. However, we expect that the signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy may be more pronounced in the first half of 2024, and high interest rates and near-term geopolitical risks may increase the volatility of financial markets compared with the previous period. Recently, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have increased, which has boosted *** significantly, or there are more expected changes in pricing. It is recommended that investors actively pay attention to the trend and consider the allocation ratio to grasp the investment opportunities.
Wang Xiang said that whether it is the smooth convergence of inflation, leading the monetary policy of Europe and the United States to turn to the logic of liquidity, or the impact of emergencies Inflation rises again, taking the logic of stagflation, different macro paths are beneficial to the margin, so that it is still one of the assets with high certainty, and the difference is only in the difference in odds. Next year is an election year for many economies, and the intensity of geopolitical games may remain at a high level, which is also conducive to the rise of the center. The upward target of the US dollar ** is 2200 2400 US dollars, corresponding to about 515 550 grams.
It is normal for gold prices to become more volatile in the area near new all-time highs, and investors should neither be overzealous in an overbought market, nor completely lose confidence after a failed breakout. Wang Xiang pointed out that from a medium and long-term perspective, next year's Fed easing and the weakening of the dollar is still a high probability path, combined with many economies into the election year, the intensity of the geopolitical game will remain at a high level, and after the release of short-term selling sentiment, ** will still return to the medium and long-term upward path.
Editor: Xia Xin Proofreader: Yan Jingning).