Germany's industrial orders unexpectedly fell in October, underscoring that manufacturing in Europe's largest economy remains stagnant. Data released on Wednesday showed that German industrial orders fell 3% month-on-month in October7%, while the analyst's previous increase was 02%。However, industrial orders were revised to a 07%。
Machinery and equipment manufacturing orders fell 135%, while new orders from the manufacturing of transport equipment such as aircraft, ships and trains surged by 202%。
This result shows that the prospects for the recovery of Germany's vast industrial base are difficult to realise in the aftermath of the energy crisis and weak global demand, which is further dragging down the German economy.
Germany's GDP shrank by 01%, economists expect a contraction of the same magnitude in the fourth quarter, which would make Germany the only major economy to fall into recession. Berlin's budget chaos could further cast a shadow over the economic recovery after a shocking court decision.
However, recent surveys suggest that the German economy has stabilized. The IFO Institute of Economic Research's Business Outlook Index reached a six-month high last month. A survey of purchasing managers showed that the private sector was "quite weak", but the accommodative environment supported a return to economic growth.
The weakness of the German economy has already begun to ripple through the labor market. After showing surprising resilience, the unemployment rate hit a two-and-a-half-year high in November.
Andrea Nahles, head of the German Federal Labour Agency, said: "The recession is leaving its mark. ”
Tight monetary conditions have exacerbated headwinds. While the ECB** insisted that another rate hike was possible, a marked slowdown in eurozone inflation prompted ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel to say that the likelihood of another rate hike was "quite slim". Investors have ramped up bets that the ECB will cut interest rates as early as March.
However, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said last month that inflation risks were "skewed to the upside". "In my opinion, it is too early to consider a possible rate cut," he said. ”
This article is from: Zhitong Finance and Economics.