Mentioned on the weekendFirst stand and then break, A shares are a bit interesting today.
The market is also constantly figuring out how to establish first and then breakSome people say that for A-shares, the so-called establishment is to first set up a double-bottom W pattern, and then consider breaking up.
Why is this happening, because when A-shares really continue to break down, effectively fall below the monthly trend line, and effectively fall below everyone's defensive psychology, the rescue at that time is not so simple.
Previously, purely from the perspective of the first quantity, it is now twice as much as in 2015, so the amount of funds needed to bail out the market has to be doubled.
Therefore, it is better to save than to save early, and for the market, it is better to believe than to believe early.
The pull up in the afternoon is not surprising at all, at that time, a friend asked a bit contradictory, on the one hand, the index was pulled to save the market, and on the other hand, strong supervision suppressed popularity.
In fact, from the perspective of some people's perception of risk, it is not difficult to find that as long as the index is stable, there is no risk, and even if the sentiment is high, it will not drive the index.
Therefore, pulling finance and central enterprises in the afternoon is obviously the method of a certain team, for exampleThe trading volume of the Central Enterprises Technology Index ETF hit a record high.
As forThere is a small essay on the plate talking about the RRR cut, Regardless of whether the news is true or not, in fact, I personally think that this is not the main factor, after all, there was not much reaction to the previous stamp duty cut.
The core logic is that it has reached the key position of first standing and then breaking to stabilize confidence, and of course, some news is also worth seeing.
The Fed will announce its December interest rate decision on Thursday and will not move this month, but it will be up to them to see what they say and how the swap rate responds.
There are 650 billion MLF due this Friday, and it will be up to Yang Ma to move.
Market public opinion
Encapsulation:TSMC is expected to break through the bottleneck of advanced packaging capacity in the first quarter of next year.
Gas:**The Meteorological Observatory continues to issue a blue warning for heavy snowfall and a blue warning for cold waves, with a local plummeting of more than 14.
mr：Technology ** reported that Apple's Vision Pro will be officially launched in January next year.
Disc review
The Shanghai Composite Index once fell below the monthly upward trend line in the morning, and the two markets shrank, which took the weak rotation that was said to be over the weekend.
In terms of subject matter, the media game that strengthened on Thursday and diverged on Friday rotated again today, while the relatively new multimodal AI and MR continued to move relatively continuously, especially in the afternoon, when the index exploded and pulled up to be further strengthened.
The whole disk is a weak rotation in the morning, and in the afternoon, it is a strong and strong Hengqiang idea, and it will be clearer to look at the CPO plate alone.
The CPO was one of the strongest directions on Friday, but the divergence weakened in the morning, and in the afternoon the index broke out, and it followed again.
As for the current approach, you have to say that the market is very strong, but the trading volume has shrunk, you have to say that it is very weak, and it can still be red today in the case of domestic and foreign capital collective smashing.
The overall feeling is that it is still the first to stand and then break as mentioned above, first sit on the double bottom pattern here, and then consider breaking up.
So next, it is not ruled out that there will still be a narrow ** see-saw to defend the double bottom here, if it is stronger, don't break the 5-day line, and if it is weak, you can't break today's low.
In terms of subject matter, the current rotation is still done around science and technology.
Relatively new and news-stimulatingMR, multimodal AI, rotation media, games, AI, CPO, and the adjustment has not been performed for a whileComputing power leasing and encapsulationWait.
Take a look at other aspectsCars(This year's entity can get its hands on it)、Cooling of gasWait.
Finally, the index is red, and the next thing that should be paid more attention is the two citiesVolumeCan it be further amplified, after all, under the weak index, the supervision is still under strong pressure, andOnce the market is large, it is necessary to think about whether the market style will turn to group volume tickets