The situation on the Korean Peninsula has been doomed out of control since the United States deployed submarines and bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads to South Korea a few months ago. Recently, the DPRK launched its first military reconnaissance satellite, thus confirming its reconnaissance superiority. The United States immediately responded by launching South Korea's first reconnaissance satellite, Reconnaissance Satellite 1, into orbit through the Space Exploration Technology Corporation SpaceX's Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. This marks South Korea's first access to a military reconnaissance satellite system. And on the 21st of last month, the DPRK just launched its own military reconnaissance satellite. Although from a technical point of view, North Korea's rocket technology and short-range tracking and control level far surpass South Korea's, with the assistance of the United States, the two Koreas are on the same starting line.
In recent months, the two Koreas have competed with each other firing rockets and conducting military Xi, and in fact, the Korean Peninsula has entered an arms race. To put it bluntly, the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula is directly related to the security of China's northern and northern coastal regions. The uncontrolled arms race between the two Koreas is undoubtedly one of China's greatest concerns. This means that we need to build more air defense positions in the north, and after the conflict breaks out, we must retain forces that are ready to deal with fighting in the north. The U.S. move is tantamount to using Japan and South Korea to contain part of the energy of China and Russia. In fact, military reconnaissance satellites are not only used to establish reconnaissance intelligence superiority, but also have a guiding and positioning role for nuclear and intercontinental missiles.
While North Korea's possession of military reconnaissance satellites is a great threat to Japan and South Korea, the possession of military satellites by South Korea is also a threat to us. After all, the U.S. has been stationed in South Korea for years, and we can't be sure what potential danger the U.S. might pose in South Korea. The most dangerous scenario is similar to the deployment of combat-ready nuclear warheads by the United States in Germany. However, rational analysis shows that despite the current tensions on the peninsula, the probability of a full-scale conflict is still low. First of all, the United States, as the leading factor, does not dare to act rashly. With the conflict between Russia and Ukraine still unresolved and tensions between Palestine and Israel escalating again, Biden really does not dare to act rashly at this moment. After all, it is difficult for the United States to cope with three wars at once.
If a conflict is blindly triggered, the United States will not be able to intervene effectively, which will have "catastrophic consequences" for the U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region. Secondly, South Korea does not actually dare to take military action either. In the absence of an American order, South Korea will not act blindly. Moreover, there is a huge gap in the conventional military strength of the two Koreas, and the economic center is located near the border. South Korea will reap the consequences if it acts rashly. Finally, North Korea's attitude is also key. North Korea's military equipment research and development upgrades in recent years are essentially for self-defense to ensure its own ideological and regime security. Therefore, Kim Jong-un will not act rashly without the tacit approval or indication of a major eastern power.
However, the most worrying thing is that once military mutual trust is undermined, either the DPRK and the ROK on the border will be "stunned" and act indiscriminately without following orders, which may undermine the sensitive situation, and if either side misjudges the situation and the intentions of the other side, the situation may be completely pushed out of control. Although this is unlikely, many historical events eventually get out of control precisely due to some fortuitous factors.