Tech billionaire Elon Musk recently predicted during a recent discussion with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that "one day people won't need to work" due to advances in artificial intelligence (AI), according to the World Press Syndicate on Nov. 13. The CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX said: "If you want to work, you can have a job, but AI will do everything. ”
The future is long, and Musk did not specify when that day will come. But, at least for the next few decades, there is little chance that AI will trigger a job apocalypse.
Fears of technology-induced job losses have been around for a long time. At the beginning of the 19th century, a group of British textile workers, known as Luddites, smashed labor-saving machines to prevent their use. However, in the next two centuries, despite the rapid advancement of technology, companies continued to hire employees.
There are fears that technological progress will eliminate the need for human laborers. Much of this concern stems from a zero-sum mindset that fundamentally misunderstands how economies are developed.
Yes, new technologies are able to accomplish certain tasks better and at a lower cost compared to humans. Yes, this will lead to businesses using technology instead of workers to accomplish these tasks. But the process of creative destruction not only causes destruction, but also creates.
New technologies will increase the productivity of many workers and create greater value for businesses, so companies will compete more fiercely for labor in the labor market, pushing up their wages and incomes. Higher incomes will increase the overall demand for goods and services in the economy, which in turn will increase the demand for laborers. This dynamic process, in turn, has allowed the economy to avoid an increase in structural unemployment. In addition, new technologies bring new goods and services, which also increases the demand for workers.
It's not just theoretical. Think of the remarkable advances in ICT and robotics over the past 50 years. These technological breakthroughs have had a profound impact on the labor market as well as the broader economy. For example, the share of employment in manufacturing and clerical jobs has been drastically reduced. However, it has not become more difficult for workers to find a job, and the unemployment rate has not shown an upward trend.
As I look ahead to the next few decades, my biggest concern is not too many workers, but too few. Declining fertility rates and rapidly aging populations will slow the rate of labor force growth in the United States and most developed countries. These countries could rely on larger inflows of migrants to fill the labour gap, but the current political winds are at odds.
According to the Congressional Budget Office**, the U.S. population will grow at an annual rate of 0 over the next 30 years3%, about one-third of the period from 1983 to 2022. In such an environment, it is expected that anyone who wants to find a job will be able to find a job.
Of course, advances in AI will certainly be disruptive, but instead of drastically reducing or even eliminating the need for workers, it will change the content of the work of many workers. This is nothing new either. While "skilled unemployment" has not materialized over the past few decades, the structure and nature of employment has changed radically. David Ott, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and others have found that most of the current jobs are created after 1940.
The further we look into the future, the harder it is to deny the possibility that Musk's predictions will come true. But the world where AI eventually replaces all human workers will be very different from the world we have now. One of the most important economic issues in the world today is how to make the most of scarce resources. But in the future that Musk envisions, where resources are extremely abundant and technology can meet all our needs, inequality in today's world no longer exists. Why accumulate wealth in a world of abundance?On the other hand, such a world could also exacerbate inequality, especially if the machines that generate all income belong to a small group of people.
How will humans interact with the world?I get a lot of fulfillment and satisfaction from my professional activities, but the main reason I get up to work every day is to support my family. If we don't need to make ends meet and save money for retirement, will we still get up and work every day in pursuit of self-improvement and contribution to the collective?Or will you succumb to the dark angel in your heart, doing nothing every day, and being in a mess?
There are no easy answers to these questions. Fortunately, we most likely don't have to answer these questions. Technological change has not eliminated the need for human workers in the past, and probably not in the future – at least not in the era in which today's workers and policymakers live. (Compiled by Xiong Wenyuan).
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