Straight news: Britain, Japan, and Italy set up an international organization this week to jointly develop sixth-generation aircraft. Why did these three countries not go to the United States for cooperation in the development of sixth-generation aircraft, but left the United States alone?
Shi Hong, special commentator: First, the United States has made it clear that it will go it alone in the development of sixth-generation aircraft and will not bring its allies to play, so it is useless to seek out the United States. The monopoly psychology of the United States in the field of cutting-edge technology is very strong, and the best things will only be exclusive to them. For example, the high-end model of the fifth-generation aircraft of the United States, the F-22, was independently developed by the United States from beginning to end, and after it was put into mass production, the US Congress passed a law to ban the export of the F-22, and no matter which ally wanted to buy it, there was no way. Therefore, the sixth-generation aircraft project of the United States is now completely based on its own research and development, and it is not looking for a partner at all, and it may not be exported to foreign countries if it succeeds in the future. Under such circumstances, Britain, Japan, and Italy went to the United States to cooperate in the development of sixth-generation aircraft.
Second, Britain, Japan, and Italy jointly developed a sixth-generation aircraft, not only to obtain an advanced fighter plane, but also to boost the aviation industries of the three countries and prevent them from becoming completely vassals of the United States in the field of aviation technology. When it comes to maintaining aviation independence, the British psyche is particularly strong. If you look at the fighter planes equipped by the British Air Force after World War II, all of them were developed independently by Britain or in cooperation with European partners, and Britain has never asked the United States to cooperate in the development of them. Because Britain knows too well the mind of the "cousin" of the United States, they are all foxes of a thousand years, and what are they talking about with me. In recent years, Japan has also been trying to get rid of the control of the United States, and Japan has tried to develop its own fifth-generation aircraft, but it is difficult to find technology and funds, so it will not be able to engage in a technical verification machine. In the past two years, Britain has actively courted Japan in the field of sixth-generation aircraft development, which is exactly in Japan's hands, so the two countries hit it off. As for Italy, it also does not want to be firmly controlled by the United States, so although it has purchased American-made F-16s on the fourth-generation aircraft, it has also jointly developed the "Typhoon" fighter with Britain, Germany, and Spain. For such high-end things as sixth-generation aircraft, Italy is naturally willing to join the sixth-generation aircraft team led by the United Kingdom because it has a history of jointly developing the "Typhoon" fighter with the United Kingdom.
Straight News: Britain, Japan, and Italy have now set a timetable for the sixth-generation aircraft, that is, to build it by 2035. In your opinion, will these three countries really be able to build a sixth-generation aircraft by then?
Special Commentator Shi Hong: It's more difficult. On the one hand, Britain, Japan, and Italy have not developed fifth-generation aircraft, and now they have to leapfrog the fifth-generation aircraft and directly go to the sixth-generation aircraft, which has a very large technological span. In fact, the timetable set by Britain, Japan, and Italy can also be seen that they are somewhat lacking in confidence. Generally, the development time of a fighter is 8 to 10 years, while the time period given by Britain, Japan and Italy is 12 years. In my personal opinion, although these three countries have been more cautious, they are still somewhat optimistic about the difficulty of developing sixth-generation aircraft. If you don't develop a fifth-generation aircraft, you can go directly to the sixth-generation aircraft, just like wanting to run without learning to walk. In the future development process, once the technical bottleneck is encountered, it may be difficult to overcome, which will greatly delay the development progress. Judging from the history of the first-class equipment jointly developed by many countries in the world before, there are very few first-class equipment projects that can be completed according to the planned time.
On the other hand, although cooperative research and development has the advantages of sharing risks and costs, it also has inherent problems that are difficult to reconcile. Now that the three countries have just begun to develop a sixth-generation aircraft, differences of opinion have been constantly exposed. In the follow-up process, there will only be more and more differences of opinion, and failure may lead to the miscarriage of the project. Examples of this abound throughout history. For example, Britain and France once wanted to jointly develop fourth-generation aircraft and new-generation frigates, but in the end they parted ways because their respective needs were too different. You must know that Britain and France are close partners in Europe, and they have worked together to develop ** many times, not to mention that the sixth-generation aircraft is the first time that Britain and Japan have joined hands in the field of equipment. Just by determining the technical indicators of the sixth-generation aircraft, there may be no less quarrels between Britain and Japan. For example, Britain did not have much interest in the high speed of fighter jets, while Japan, due to its own peculiarities, attached great importance to the high speed of fighter jets. How to achieve a balance, I am afraid that it will take a lot of words and tongues between Britain and Japan.
All in all, since Britain, Japan, and Italy have had no experience in independently developing fighter planes in the past half century, and now they are coming together to develop a technically complex sixth-generation aircraft. Even if it can be developed in the end, I am afraid that it is much worse than the sixth-generation aircraft of the United States.
The American B-21 "Raider" stealth bomber made its first flight on the 10th. Source: Reuters.
Straight news: Speaking of sixth-generation fighters, the United States' B-21 "Raider" stealth bomber made its first successful flight a few days ago, and some people called it "the world's first sixth-generation aircraft" into the sky. What are your observations on this?
Special Commentator Shi Hong: Strictly speaking, the B-21 is not a sixth-generation aircraft. Because the aircraft is mainly classified as a fighter jet, the sixth-generation aircraft we often talk about also refers to the sixth-generation fighter. The B-21 belongs to the bomber, so naturally it cannot be mixed into the generation of fighters. The so-called B-21 is "the world's first sixth-generation aircraft", which is only the name of the developer of the aircraft, Northrop Grumman of the United States, and the American party did not say so. The U.S. Air Force is planning the "Next Generation Air Dominance" (NGAD) program, which is the true sixth-generation aircraft of the United States.
Of course, Northrop Grumman's call the B-21 a sixth-generation aircraft does not exclude the Americans from trying to expand the range of tasks of the B-21 so that the B-21 can be used not only for long-range ground and sea strikes, but also for air combat. Although there were no examples of bombers conducting air battles after World War II, the United States made many attempts. In the 70s of the last century, the US Air Force installed a passive phased array radar in the nose of one B-52 bomber, which could conduct air detection. However, the aircraft was only used as an experimental nature and did not enter active service. In 2004, the U.S. Air Force teamed up with Boeing to try to develop the B-1R regional bomber on the basis of the B-1B strategic bomber, so that it has over-the-horizon air combat capabilities. But then, because the energy of the United States was absorbed by the war on terror, the B-1R program was later shelved.
The current B-21 is the first bomber developed by the United States after the war, and it is also the second stealth bomber after the B-2, and the technical level is very high. The B-21 is comparable or even slightly superior to the B-2 in stealth capabilities, and significantly surpasses the B-2 in many fields such as reliability, maintainability, radar and avionics systems, informatization, air situational awareness, and artificial intelligence. Even with the B-21 to control UAVs for air combat, it may be even more effective. Therefore, in terms of technological developments and trends in air combat development, it is not impossible to call the B-21 a sixth-generation aircraft.
Author丨Shi Hong, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Chen Miaosong, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News.
Typesetting丨Qiu Yatong, Shenzhen Satellite TV direct news editor.
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