The A** market hit a new low again, the risk of the Shanghai Composite Index at 2900 points surged, and the ChiNext Index at 1800 points showed signs of a downward expansion trend.
The turnover of superimposed ** began to decrease continuously, indicating that the short-term ** has entered a downward channel, and it is difficult to gather bullish energy in the short term. Will the trend rise sharply?
Why does the short cycle **last**?
First of all, recently, the stock indexes of major markets such as the United States and European stocks have hit record highs, attracting a large number of foreign capital outflows from the A** market, which has put pressure on the three major stock indexes.
Secondly, the structural problems of the A** market are still prominent, with the scarcity of high-quality growth stocks and the lack of growth momentum of value stocks at low valuations, resulting in a lack of market activity.
In addition, the differentiation of the market is also obvious, although some popular theme stocks and concept stocks have performed, but they cannot drive the atmosphere of the entire market, and most of the ** are in a downturn, so that investors have lost confidence.
Finally, the market is less and less liquid, and it is difficult to support the Shanghai Index.
It can be understood that the ** of A shares is related to the lack of liquidity of funds, on the one hand, the sharp rise in the peripheral market has attracted the outflow of foreign capital, on the other hand, the market's ** has led to an increase in redemption pressure, and there is a lack of active entry of new funds. However, this is also likely to change, as there are several positive news coming.
Positive 1: As of December 19, the management scale of 823 ** ETFs in the whole market exceeded 164 trillion yuan, a record high.
Moreover, on December 19, the total net inflow of ** ETFs in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1004.6 billion yuan, also hit a new high since September. This shows that investors' confidence in the A** market is gradually recovering, and they are more inclined to choose a more flexible and diversified investment method.
Good 2: More importantly, a total of 304 IPOs will land on the A** market in 2023, a decrease of 121 from 2022, and a total of 349.6 billion yuan will be raised in the initial offering, a decrease of 4042%, and the amount of funds raised decreased by 237.2 billion yuan. This shows that the IPO market has tightened significantly, and the financial pressure on the market has also been reduced accordingly, which is conducive to the market.
Say a few words from the heart, A-shares may repeat their 20-year history
On December 19, the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 290.8 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 20 billion yuan from the previous day and a new high in the past month. This shows that the trading atmosphere of the market has become active, the participation of investors has begun to increase, and the market has more momentum. Although it was *** on December 20, the turnover on the 19th was enlarged, and Peony is expected to be actively involved in the institution.
We all know that the car needs power, just like the oil of a car, if there is no oil, the car will not run. So, what is the motivation of **?The driving force is the market's expectations, that is, investors' views on the future.
If the investor's view of the future is optimistic, then they will ***push*** If the investor's view of the future is pessimistic, then they will sell**, resulting in ***
And the current A** market is a market that lacks momentum, and investors' expectations for the future are sluggish, and there is not enough confidence and reason to go to the market, so they can only wait and see or reduce their positions. So why are investors' expectations for the future depressed?
This involves a problem, the current A** field, is the lack of a particularly big positive, although the scale of the ETF has increased, the number of IPOs has decreased, but the fundamentals of the market are poor, there is no big enough positive stimulus and support to promote some small positives can only drag down and suppress
The good news is that the Shanghai Composite Index is now at a historical low, even lower than it was in 2008. This shows that the Shanghai Index has been seriously undervalued, and although it will be the first in the future, there is no room for continuous decline, but it has the conditions for overfalling.
Even Goldman Sachs expects earnings growth of 8% and 13% respectively for the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index in 2024, higher than the market consensus of 2% and 11% growth in 2022**.
Based on the above analysis, Peony said a few words in his heart, A shares or will repeat the 20-year history, the short-cycle Shanghai Index is in a bottoming process, and there will be a certain historical trend of space in 20 years, but the decline will not be too large, 21 years ** began to continue**, 24 years ** is expected to repeat the upward trend, because the valuation level of the Shanghai Index has been in the historical bottom area.
And there is strong support from last year's secondary stage lows of 2863 and 2885. At the same time, Peony also believes that **will not be always**, because the favorable factors of the market still exist, such as the continuous introduction of policies and the gradual return of funds.
As long as there is a suitable opportunity in the market, it is possible to trigger a Jedi counterattack of the Shanghai Index and achieve a trend of ** or even a reversal.
The article is a peony investment idea, the content is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, thank you for lighting up the little thumb below!