1. Today's scrap steel ** is weak, and some steel companies follow the downward adjustment, but due to the weather, the market resources are tight, and the cost-effective advantage of scrap is still there, temporarily supporting scrap, and it is expected that the short-term scrap will be adjusted in a narrow range on demand.
2. The domestic steel market is running first, and the market turnover has fallen slightly. The economic work conference was held, and the market's expectations for policy increases still exist.
3. The overall demand for fundamentals is still weak, the apparent consumption of steel and the market turnover continue to fall, and some varieties are accumulated. **It also continued the downward trend, with the output of 5 major timber and the average daily output of molten iron in blast furnaces all falling.
With the end of the meeting, the various departments gradually implement the policies mentioned in the meeting, the trend of the country's policy to expand domestic demand remains unchanged, and a series of adjustment policies for real estate continue to optimize the implementation, driving the steel spot market operation sentiment, the market has been explored, but the afternoon market is affected by the small composition news, the market interprets the negative news, the opening dives, the mood of the business falls, and the steel trend in the later periodRead on to ......
In early trading today, the leading dealers tended to be low, small and medium-sized companies did not raise prices, and the mainstream of the spot market was weak. Beijing and Shanghai adjusted and optimized the real estate policy, and the real estate construction and new construction data increased year-on-year in the month, but the supply and demand situation was weak, superimposed on the weakness of A-shares, and the steel industry fell again in the afternoon, closing in the third consecutive yin.
Macro:From January to November, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 2 percent year-on-year9%, the growth rate was the same as that from January to October;The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 43%, the growth rate increased by 02 percentage points;The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 72%, the growth rate increased by 03 percentage points;Real estate investment fell by 94%, infrastructure and manufacturing investment increased by 58% and 63%。
In addition, Beijing and Shanghai ushered in a number of property market policy adjustments. Beijing has optimized the identification standards for ordinary housing, abolished the strict control of the mortgage term when housing prices are rising too quickly, and the lower limit of the interest rate policy for new housing loans issued by commercial banks will also be adjusted, and Shanghai has adjusted the standard of ordinary housing and optimized the differentiated housing credit policy since December 15. However, in the afternoon, the A** field was tired again, driving the steel *** downward.
On the whole, with the effective policy measures to stabilize growth, the domestic economy continues to rebound, and strong macro expectations boost market confidence. However, considering the decline in steel demand in the off-season, it is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate, and it is difficult for steel prices to get out of the strong **. Under the game of strong expectations, high costs and weak demand, steel prices may continue to adjust in a narrow range.
December 15thBuilding materials3 out of 24 marketsfalls10 yuan ton, 2 marketsup10 yuan ton, rebar 20mmHRB400E average **4042 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading day**falls4 yuan ton;
Hot rolls5 out of 24 marketsfalls10-40 yuan ton, 3 marketsup10-20 yuan ton, 4The average of 75 hot-rolled coils was 4070 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading dayfalls4 yuan ton;
Medium and heavy plates8 out of 23 marketsfalls10-30 yuan ton, 1 marketup20 yuan ton, 14-20mm general plate average **4094 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading day**falls5 yuan ton.
On December 15, the main force of black rebarfalls32, closed at 3915,fallsWidth 081%；Hot coil workhorsefalls34, closed at 4033,fallsWidth 084%；The main force of coking coalup4.5, closed in 19075，upWidth 024%；Coke workhorsefalls24.5, closed at 25285，fallsWidth 096%；Iron orefalls13, closed at 935,fallsWidth 137%。
According to the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today, in addition to the industrial added value is positive, other data are bearish, and the overall data is bearishupor largefallsThe probability is also decreasing, the steel spot ** is in a stable state, the merchant replenishment sentiment has fallen, the market transaction is sluggish, and it is expected that the steel ** will stabilize tomorrowfallsOperation, the range is 10-30 yuan tons.
01. Beijing and Shanghai released a big move to stabilize the property market
On December 14, Beijing and Shanghai successively issued new policies for the property market, which included differential adjustment of the down payment ratio of the first and second homesDropmortgage interest rate, as well as the optimization of the standard for the identification of ordinary houses. Following the November in ShenzhenDropAfter the low down payment ratio and the optimization of the identification standards for ordinary houses, it is another big move in first-tier cities.
Affected by the change of the state's attitude towards the real estate market, a number of banks held a symposium on real estate enterprises to solve the financing problems of real estate enterprises, and Beijing and Shanghai, as the direction of the national property market, indicate the loose support of the policy for the property marketStimulate the purchase and consumption of market residents, drive the demand for steel, and benefit the trend of steel.
Monthly crude steel production increased year-on-year
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2023, China's crude steel output was 76.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 04%；The output of pig iron was 64.84 million tons, a year-on-year decreaseDrop4.8%；The output of steel was 110.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 42%。From January to November, China's crude steel output was 952.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%；The output of pig iron was 810.31 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%；The output of steel was 125282 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 57%。
At present, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills this week is lower than that of the previous monthDropto 7831%, the average daily output of molten ironDrop2.440,000 tons to 226860,000 tons. And the end demand has entered the seasonalityDropstage, the weather gradually turned cold in December, andMost of the country will usher in strongDropIn snowy weather, the construction of northern engineering projects is limited, the demand for steel in outdoor venues has decreased significantly, and market merchants are expected to weaken, which is negative for the trend of steel.
The annual fiscal deficit rate has declined
According to Reuters news agency on December 15, the budget deficit will reach 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2024, while other fiscal support may be covered by extra-budgetary debt.
Affected by the gossip in the peripheral market, the black series ** opened sharply in the afternoon, the spot market ** trend declined, and some markets** fell again, plus many cities in the northDropwarm, downstream terminal demand weakened,The market is expected to fall, in the macro policy vacuum stage, the business replenishment sentiment is not enough, bearish steel trend.
Today's steel mill guidance ** overall weakening operation. The disk is down, and the spot is weakening. From the point of view of raw materials, the billet ** is slightly lowerfalls, the finished material heelsDrop；RecentlyDropAffected by snow, logistics and transportation are slow, inquiries are few, and shipments are not smooth;From the supply side, the inventory in the factory is still high, with the first raw materialsupThe profits of steel enterprises are upside down, and some steel enterprises have stopped production independently, mainly to go to the warehouse. It is expected that the short-term steel mills will weaken their operation.
First, the Yangtze River Iron and Steel Hefei Building Materials Adjustment Policy
On December 15, Changjiang Iron and Steel adjusted the ex-factory price of building materials in Hefei as follows:
1. Thread:Downward adjustment20 yuan, now 18mm seismic thread** is 4070 yuan ton;
2. Pan snail:Downward adjustment30 yuan, now 8mm seismic coil screw ** is 4290 yuan ton;
toUpward adjustmentAll taxes are included and will be implemented from December 15, 2023.
Second, Yongfeng, Shiheng building materials ** adjustment policy
On December 15, Yongfeng and Shi Heng left the factory for construction steelDownward adjustment20 yuan ton, adjusted as follows:
1. Rebar guidance**Downward adjustment20 yuan ton, now 22mmHRB400 rebar implementation **3880 yuan ton, 10mm plus 150 yuan ton;12mm increase 150 yuan ton, 14mm increase 120 yuan ton, MM increase 90 yuan ton, 28-32mm increase 150 yuan ton, 36-40mm increase 280 yuan ton, HRB400E same specification and same price;HRB500 high-strength with the same specification is increased by 220 yuan ton.
2. Guidance for coiling snails**Downward adjustment20 yuan ton, now 10mmHRB400 coiled snail implementation **4100 yuan ton, 6mm increase 350 yuan ton, 8mm increase 30 yuan ton, 12mm increase 200 yuan ton;HRB400E has the same specifications and the same price.
3. High-line guidance**Downward adjustment20 yuan ton, now 10mmhpb300 coil snail implementation **4100 yuan ton, 6mm price increase 350 yuan ton, 8mm price increase 30 yuan ton, 12mm price increase 200 yuan ton.
toUpward adjustmentAll prices include tax.
Third, Jiujiang Pinggang Jiangyin, Wuxi plate ** adjustment policy
Jiujiang Pinggang Jiangyin, Wuxi regional plate guidance on December 15: 4150 yuan tons of general plates, 4280 yuan tons of low alloy plates, compared with yesterday, **stable.
Fourth, Jiangsu Huawei medium and heavy plate adjustment policy
On December 15, the general carbon base price of Jiangsu Huawei medium and heavy plate factory was 4060 yuan, and the price of manganese plate was increased by 180 yuanDownward adjustment$20.
Fifth, Yutian Jinzhou wire rod ** adjustment information
On December 15, Yutian Jinzhou wire rod was shipped**Downward adjustment10 yuan (ton price, the same below):
1. Now HPB300 material 8-10mm high line factory **3940 yuan;6.5 12mm plus 30 yuan;
2,6mm factory ** 4060 yuan;The above ** will be implemented from December 15, 2023.
Sixth, Shanxi Gaoyi building materials ** adjustment information
On December 15, Shanxi Gaoyi building materials factory ** stable (ton price, the same below):
1. Now Q235 material 8-10mm high line factory ** is 4230 yuan, 65. The price is increased by 80 yuan;
2. Now 8-10mmHRB400E coil snail factory ** is 4330 yuan, 6 plus 200 yuan;The above ** will be implemented from December 15, 2023.
Seventh, Shanxi Meijin building materials ** adjustment information
On December 15th, Meijin building materials left the factory ** stable (ton price, the same below):
1. Rebar 16-25mmHRB400E is 4060 yuan, and 200 yuan is added to the small screw
2. Wire HPB300 8-10mm execution ** is 4140 yuan;
3. The 8-10mm execution of the coil snail is 4140 yuan;
The above ** are sent to the Taiyuan area including tax**, measurement method: the thread is weighed;The coiled snail and wire rod are weighed. The above ** will be implemented from December 15, 2023.
8. Tiangang medium and heavy plate ** adjustment information
On December 15, Tiangang Q235B medium and heavy plate lock order ** reported 4000 yuan ton (14-25 base price), Q355B4200 yuan. The ex-factory price including tax is stable.
9. Adjustment information of Hebei Iron and Steel Medium and Heavy Plate
On December 15th, the medium and heavy plate **: Hebei Iron and Steel medium plate ** was stable, and the base price of the lock plate was 3950 yuan (manganese plate), which was negotiable. Sales Office of South Hebei Iron and Steel Group.
10. Puyang Iron and Steel Medium and Heavy Plate ** Adjustment Information
On December 15th, Puyang Iron and Steel Medium and Heavy Plate ** was stable, and the price lock policy (limited orders):
1. The base price of manganese circulation is 3960 yuan tons.
2. The base price of fixed rolling and variety steel is 3960 yuan tons, excluding heat treatment materials.
3. The base price of wear-resistant steel is 3850 yuan tons.
4. The base price of Q550D, Q690D and other heat-treated materials is 3850 yuan tons.
Ten.
1. Zunyi Fuxin Special Steel Building Materials Adjustment Information.
On December 15, Zunyi Fuxin Special Steel building materials delivered the factory ** stable (ton price, the same below):
1. The current HRB400E 18mm rebar guide price is 4050 yuan, which is stable12 14 plus 110 yuan, 16 plus 80 yuan plus 80 yuan, 28 plus 160 yuan, 32 plus 210 yuan;
2. The current HRB400E 8-10mm coil snail weighing guide price is 4110 yuan, **stable;Pan snail 6 plus 300 yuan.
3. The current HPB300 8-10mm high-line weighing guide price is 4070 yuan, which is stableHigh Line 6 plus $150.
4. The fourth-grade HRB500E is added 280 yuan for the same specification ** rebar.
The above ** are the buyer's cash withdrawal tax **;Effective December 15, 2023.
Ten.
Second, Kunshan Iron and Steel Kunming building materials ** adjustment information.
On December 15, Kunshan Iron and Steel Kunming regional building materials guidance ** stable (ton price, the same below):
1. HRB400E 18mm rebar is 4290 yuan, 20-25mm plus 30 yuan, 16mm plus 30 yuan, 12-14mm plus 130 yuan;
2. HPB300 8-10mm high line execution ** is 4490 yuan;
3. HRB400E 8-10mm coil snail execution ** is 4540 yuan;
The above ** are sent to the Kunming area including tax**, measurement method: thread for the calculation;The coil snail and the high line are over-pounded.
Ten.
Third, Xianggang building materials ** adjustment information.
On December 15, the factory of Xianggang building materials was stable (ton price, the same below).
1. The ex-factory guide price of HRB400E material 18mm rebar is 4180 yuan ton;
2. HRB400E material 8-10mm coil snail factory guide price is 4330 yuan ton;
3. HPB300 material 8-10mm high line factory guidance price is 4380 yuan ton;
The above ** will be implemented from December 15, 2023.
Ten.
Fourth, the first adjustment information of JISCO building materials.
On December 15, the ex-factory construction steel of Jiugang remained stable (ton price, the same below).
1. Now 20mmHRB400E rebar is 4230 yuan, 12-14mm is 150 yuan, 16mm is 80 yuan, 18 22 25mm is 50 yuan, 28-32mm is 150 yuan;
2. Now 8-10mmHRB400E coil snail is 4460 yuan.
3. At present, the 8-10mmHPB300 high line is 4370 yuan, and the 6mm price is 150 yuan.
The above ** are tax included, and the above ** will be implemented from December 15, 2023.
Ten.
Fifth, Lianyuan Steel building materials ** adjustment information.
On December 15th, the factory of Lianyuan Steel building materials was stable (ton price, the same below).
At present, the guide price of HRB400E material 18mm rebar is 4140 yuan ton;
The above ** will be implemented from December 15, 2023.
The latest December 15 national steel ***
On December 15, the steel ** was stableupfalls。The meeting landed, strong expectations into a vacuum period, the recent cold wave rain and snow weather increased, the transaction and table demand are likely to fall, plus the logistics and transportation have been slow, and the downstream mentality is cautiousIt is expected that the steel will run tomorrow.
December 15 Building Materials**: Hold a steady tone
Today's building materials ** individualupfalls10。The snail weakened again, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills this week fell month-on-monthDropto 7831%, the average daily output of molten ironDrop2.440,000 tons to 226860,000 tons, the construction of the northern engineering project is limited, and the demand for steel in outdoor sites has decreased significantlyIt is expected that tomorrow's building materials will hold steady and fall;
Hot rolled**: mixed
Hot rolled today**upfallsMutual cash, the range of 10-20, the low level of the futures volume, the decline in the spot mentality, coupled with the completion of the low price of downstream enterprises in the early stage, the overall demand has shrunk slightly, and the manufacturers are forcedDropPrice facilitates delivery,It is expected that tomorrow's hot coil ** will run weakly;
Cold rolled**: individual**
Today cold rolled individuallyfalls20。With the recent ** continues to fallfallsThe mentality of merchants is pessimistic, and the overall demand performance has not improved. It is expected that tomorrow's cold rolling** or consolidation will weaken;
Plate**: Smaller decline
Now the country is under the boardfalls10-30。The market as a whole continues to be weak, the supply and demand of medium and heavy plates are increasing, and the contradiction between supply and demand of plates is accumulating. The fourth round of mentionupOpen, but in the case of increased inventory and weak downstream demand, the spot **upFatigue,It is expected that tomorrow's plate will be narrow**,
Hot rolled strip**: stable and falling
Today, the national hot-rolled strip is under itfalls10-20。After the end of this week's economic meeting, the good is not as expected, market confidence has been frustrated, the downstream orders are not good, the current north-south price difference is still slightly inverted, coupled with the northern steel mill orders are sufficient, the willingness to raise prices is strong, and the overall inventory continues to fallDropTomorrow's strip is expected to be ***
Large and medium-sized materials**: hold green**
Today, under the large and medium-sized materials in the countryfalls10-30。Harbinup80。SubjectDropAffected by temperature, the construction speed of downstream construction sites of section steel has slowed down, the overall demand has shrunk slightly compared with last week, the loss of steel mills has expanded, the cost of raw materials has increased, and some steel enterprises have stopped production and consumed inventory. It is expected that the short-term section steel ** or weaken the operation;
Welded pipe**: Maintain stable operation
Today, the national welded pipe is running stably. Strong macro expectations are disappointed, and during the current policy window, the market returns to weak realistic trading, and the short-term spot bottom support is still sufficient, continuing to maintain a stable and narrow range adjustment. It is expected that the main stable operation of the pipe will be carried out tomorrow.
Judging from today's **, the market correction is still not over, but the pace has slowed down significantly. Mainly supported by high costs, the spot does not have a sustained largefallsconditions. How to go tomorrow, look down at ......
1. China's national real estate development investment fell by 9 percent year-on-year from January to November4%
From January to November, real estate development investmentDropThe magnitude has expanded slightly, and investment in real estate development has declinedDropIt will affect the market's expectations for the steel industry, because steel is one of the important raw materials for real estate construction, and if the real estate market will continue to be sluggish, then steel demand will be further hindered and bearish. (The Paper).
2. Affected by snowfall and icy roads, 312 road sections in 14 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities are closed
DropSnow and icy roads have caused traffic disruptions, affecting steel transportation, and the short-term market is expected to decrease. However, at the same time, downstream engineering projects will be blocked, and the demand for steel will also be reduced, which will have a certain suppressive effect on steel prices, and the overall bearishness will be negative. (Guangming Net).
3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: From January to November, the three major indicators of China's shipbuilding grew simultaneously
From January to November, China's shipbuilding completions, new orders, and hand-held orders continued to increase. In the next few years, the demand for shipboards will remain high in the peak years of China's shipyards, so the prosperity and development of the shipbuilding industry will have a positive impact on the subsequent steel price trend. (Guangming Net).
Today's rebar: the main stable tone
Thread demand continues to be expected to weaken seasonally, and weak reality continues to weigh on steel prices. In addition, the macro policy is less than expected, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the spot market transaction is blocked, and it is expected that the rebar will be stable tomorrowfallsRun.
Today's hot roll: a slight downward adjustment
The output and demand of hot coil are declining, the supply and demand are weak, and the industrial contradictions are accumulating. And with the limited construction of the northern project, the speed of destocking has slowed down, and the short-term ** or pressure operation, it is expected that the hot coil ** will run weakly tomorrow.
Today's middle board: stable and weak
Policy expectations and the weak reality of the industry, resulting in intensified market volatility, the current downstream business concentration ends, the buyer's willingness to take orders is not strong, the recent wait-and-see is the mainstay, is expected to be stable and weak tomorrow.
Today's strip steel: steady and falling
The raw material end is gradually weakening, and the support for finished products is insufficient, and the downstream transactions are mostly concentrated in low-price resources. But the steel mill cost is still there,DropThe price willingness is not strong, and it is expected that the main steel will be stable tomorrowfallsRun.
Today's profiles: weak operation
In the past two days, the rain and snow weather have affected shipments, and the overall inventory pressure of profiles is still there, coupled with a large amount of billetsDownward adjustment, the bottom support is weakened, the business mentality is not good, and it is expected that the profile will run weakly tomorrow.
Today's pipes: Steady operation
Affected by low temperature, rain and snow weather, the overall shipment of the pipe market is less than expected, and the first merchant is mainly shipped at a stable price. Today's black series is weak, the market trading atmosphere is general, there are fewer downstream inquiries, and it is expected that tomorrow's pipes will be stablefallsRun.
Billet today: Stable operation for the time being
The recent performance of the disk is not good, and the overall supply and demand pattern is gradually weakDrop10-30 yuan tons, billet transactions continue to be blocked, but considering that the cost of steel enterprises is still supported, it is expected that the billet will continue to operate steadily tomorrow.
Iron ore today: operating under pressure
At present, it has entered the seasonal demand off-season, resulting in the continuation of hot metal productionDrop, the formation of negative for the raw material end. In addition, affected by extreme weather factors, the demand for finished products is still expected to decline, and it is expected that the mine price will stabilize tomorrowfallsRun.
Today's coke: strong operation
Affected by rain and snow, logistics and transportation are blocked, and downstream steel mills are actively purchasing coke under low inventory. In addition, the fourth round of coke increases has landed, and it is expected that coke will run strongly tomorrow.
Scrap today: stable and weak
In addition, in the off-season, the demand for finished products is relatively weak, and the rise in scrap is still suppressed, and it is expected that tomorrow's scrap will run in a narrow range.
Today's pig iron: the Lord is steadily rising
The disk continues to run weakly, the overall transaction in the spot market is relatively light, and the downstream foundries mainly purchase pig iron. However, considering that there is still support at the raw material end, it is expected that the pig iron will run steadily tomorrow.
Integrated perspectives
*Repeatedly** washing, the difficulty of spot operation increases, and the mood of merchants is blocked. In addition, due to extreme weather, market transportation was blocked, and transactions continued to decline. But at the same time, this week's molten iron again reduced, indicating that the contradiction between supply and demand of finished products is not prominent, this time is still regarded as **, the follow-up still needs to focus on policy expectations and cost changes, it is expected that tomorrow's steel prices will be stable in a fall, with a range of 10-30 yuan.
Decision-making suggestions: during the policy vacuum, market sentiment has fallen. It is recommended that merchants maintain the operation of just the right amount of inventory, quickly rotate the operation, and see more and move less. (For reference only, not investment advice).