New energy is undoubtedly one of the brightest stars in the market in the past two years, but when the trend of replacing gasoline vehicles with electric cars is gradually clear, the stock prices of relevant listed companies have experienced a "grinding" adjustment period in the past six months.
On the contrary, the fundamentals of listed companies are continuing to deliver good investment performance, stock prices are down, performance is up, and the topic of whether the new energy theme is still worth investing in has attracted much attention in the middle of the year.
In the past ten years, he has witnessed a number of new energy companies from the initial billions of market value to hundreds of billions of market value, and in the past two years or so, he has also grasped the new energy theme investment opportunities.
In this issue, Liu Weiwei is invited to talk about his thoughts on the investment of the new energy sector in the past period of time and his views on the future development.
CEIBS**Liu Weiwei:
First of all, thank you for your attention. Although I have been engaged in investment for so many years, the volatility of the market does have some impact on the mood.
Of course, the relatively serious performance in the live broadcast activities, mainly because of my attitude towards the live broadcast, I think the live broadcast is a good way to communicate with the holders, I also hope to seize these opportunities to explain my investment method more clearly to you, the investment method I use in the past few years in the investment process can be replicated in the summary of some successful experience, it is inevitable that there will be a mismatch with the market style in some time periods, so there will be a failure situation, so we are also constantly optimizing and improving this method according to the improvement of cognition and changes in the environment。
In addition, I will also explain the logic and prospects of the development of the industry in a way that everyone can understand in the live broadcast. If the holder can understand my method and the industry I choose more clearly during the live broadcast, it will also strengthen the holder's confidence in long-term investment. Therefore, I have always taken the live event with a more serious attitude, hoping to provide you with more valuable information in a limited time.
In my daily life, my family sometimes thinks that I am not smiling;However, most of the time I spend with family, friends or colleagues, I also spend time with people in a more relaxed and happy state.
CEIBS**Liu Weiwei:
Compared with the past, the impact of policies on the new energy industry has been greatly reducedMainly with the continuous decline of technological progress and costs, the subsidies for new energy vehicles have been withdrawn, and clean energy such as photovoltaic and sea breeze has already entered the stage of parity, which has a strong endogenous power for market-oriented development.
Of course, in addition to subsidies, new energy vehicles also enjoy preferential purchase tax, which was proposed at the executive meeting on June 2"It is necessary to continue and optimize the vehicle purchase tax reduction and exemption policy for new energy vehicles".This will play a greater supporting role in the development of the industry in the next few years.
The photovoltaic industry needs to rely on the cooperation of energy storage and consumption to further improve the installed space in the future, and there are also a number of support measures at the policy level for distribution and storage and increasing consumption capacity, and the third batch of wind and solar base project list has also been officially issued. Offshore wind has been constrained by project approvals in the past year, and new projects have recently been approved and tendered.
From a domestic point of view as a whole,The new energy industry is China's advantageous industry, and it is also the highlight of domestic exports this year.
Regarding the stock price performance,At present, the market is more worried about the supply side problem, and is worried that the profitability of the industry will decline due to the large number of new entrants. We look at the latest earnings reports of listed companies and find that the gap between high-quality companies and second- and third-tier companies is prominent, and the market's concern about declining earnings is obviously excessive, so we believe that over time, the financial statements of high-quality companies further validate the competitive advantage of the companies, and these companies will experience a return of value.
CEIBS**Liu Weiwei:
Due to the improvement of conversion efficiency and the significant reduction in costs brought about by technological progress, the photovoltaic industry no longer needs national financial subsidies from 2021.
According to wind data, polysilicon has reached more than 60 kg this year (mid-June), and modules are expected to drop to 13-1.At about 4 yuan, the cost of photovoltaic power generation continues to drop sharply, further expanding the advantage of traditional fossil energy. The IRR (internal rate of return) of ground-mounted power plants in China and Europe and the United States has increased to around 8% and 10%, and residential and industrial and commercial projects are even higher, so we remain optimistic about the global demand for PV installations.
"Overcapacity" is a stereotype of the photovoltaic industry and cannot be generalized.
With the release of production capacity, the industry is returning to reasonable profits from the windfall profits of the past, and high-quality companies with cost advantages are still expected to be able to obtain excess profits, while other second- and third-tier companies may fall into a loss-making situation. In the cell sector, with the support of new technologies such as TOPCON, companies with leading advantages in new technologies will receive a premium for new technologies for a period of time.
Finally, for integrated module companies, in addition to the cost advantage of silicon wafers and the technical advantages of cells, their core competitiveness lies in the ability to deploy globally, and the brand and channel advantages brought by long-term operation in various regional markets around the world will enable them to continue to obtain high premiums in overseas markets, which is the most difficult for new entrants to replicate.
Therefore, even if the industry as a whole is facing increasing pressure on supply, we are still optimistic about high-quality PV integrated module companies.
Finally, with the decline of photovoltaic modules, and the decline in the cost of lithium batteries brought by lithium carbonateWe believe that the era of global PV parity will come, thereby accelerating the development of large storage and household storage markets, and we are also optimistic about high-quality companies in energy storage inverters.
CEIBS**Liu Weiwei:
Take the CEIBS carbon neutrality that I manage as an exampleThis is a theme that focuses on carbon neutrality related industries**, mainly focusing on new energy industries such as photovoltaics, energy storage, wind power, and electric vehicles.
Although there are not many industries and there is a certain correlation, there are great differences in the development stage, growth logic, short-term prosperity and valuation level of different industriesEven in the same industry, the supply and demand relationship and competition barriers of different links in the industrial chain are different, which will also lead to different trends in the distribution of profits between different links.
Therefore, when we manage the carbon neutrality industry, we need to compare these industries and consider focusing on the industries with good investment cost performanceAt the same time, it is also necessary to compare the industrial chain links of the same industry, and may pay more attention to the links with more premium ability and more long-term competitiveness. In this way, dynamic change and active operation can better strive for better excess returns in a limited industry.
In extreme cases, if there is a significant risk such as a valuation bubble or a downturn in the economy in the industry we can selectWe will also strive to reduce drawdowns by systematically lowering ***In addition, continue to pay attention to high-quality companies with strong competitive barriers in each industry, because in the downturn of the industry, high-quality companies have a stronger ability to resist cyclical fluctuations, and the downturn of the industry will also eliminate the production capacity of some backward enterprisesIt is conducive to high-quality enterprises to gain a higher market share, and they will also have a greater possibility to benefit during the upward period of the industry.
CEIBS**Liu Weiwei:
Our choice of industry allocation is based on the results of industry comparison, and the reason for focusing on new energy is that after comparing many industries, we believe that new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, sea breeze and other industries are still likely to maintain compound growth in the next 3-5 years, much higher than our country's GDP growth rateIn the growth industry, new energy also belongs to the direction of long-term space and short-term growth certaintyFrom a valuation perspective, after a year or two of adjustment, the valuation level of these industries is also at a historically low level, and the value for money is outstanding among the growth industries. Of course, there are some challenges on the supply side, so we have also optimized and adjusted the position structure.
We also pay attention to other industries, such as computers, communications, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, consumers, Internet, machinery and other growth industriesOf course, the core depends on our judgment of the fundamentals and valuations of these industries, and we will not balance simply for the sake of equilibrium.
CEIBS**Liu Weiwei:
We believe that after the destocking of the electric vehicle industry in the first half of this year, the industry fundamentals and valuation have entered a low range, driven by product innovation, the electrification rate in the rest of the regions except China, Europe and the United States is expected to enter a stage of continuous improvement, and the rapid growth of the energy storage market may also drive the growth of the lithium battery industry chain in the next few years.
The photovoltaic energy storage industry will have the opportunity to achieve photovoltaic storage parity in advance and enter a new stage of clean energy substitution in the context of the decline of upstream silicon materials and lithium carbonate.
The recent improvement of domestic policies and the resumption of bidding for offshore wind power will open a new round of growth, and the breakthrough of export orders of high-quality enterprises in overseas markets such as Europe has also opened up new market space.
These new energy sub-industries will have good development prospects in the next few years, and the high barriers of high-quality companies will also drive the continuous realization of performance, while the valuation has been at a historical low, and the stock price has fully responded to the overcapacity problem that everyone is worried aboutTherefore, we feel that with the continuous realization of performance, the value of these high-quality companies in the new energy industry will continue to be recognized by the market.
CEIBS**Liu Weiwei:
There are many similarities between Choice** and our choice of company. When we select companies, we pay great attention to the research of entrepreneurs;When choosing, you also need to have a more in-depth understanding of the manager, understand the manager's investment framework and growth process, know his past historical performance, and don't sell because the short-term performance is very bright, or because the short-term performance is not good, which is a kind of performance to overcome "bias".
In addition, when we choose a company, we will research the company's product or business modelWhen you choose, you also need to pay attention to the situation of the portfolio of assets in the industry allocation, don't go because the portfolio is too exposed in some hot industries, and don't sell because it is too exposed in some unpopular industries, so as to overcome the "bias" of industry selection.
On the whole, the public offering manager has a consistent investment method, if the investor approves of his method, then should be given more patience, by extending the long-term dimension to look at the income of the product.
CEIBS**Liu Weiwei:
Recently I finished reading two books, one by Vogel"** Times"., the other one is"Deep Learning Xi Revolution".by Kade Metz.
Deep Learning Xi Revolution" is a brief history of the development of artificial intelligence technology, which is combined with the current market hotspots. "* Times" is a biography, which has nothing to do with investment, and I recommend it to everyone;When reading this book, the historical challenges and major choices faced by Comrade Xiaoping made me feel that the difficulties we encountered in our work and life were so insignificant, and when I thought of them, I would face those challenges in life more calmly. I think you will have a lot of insights after reading it.
CEIBS**Liu Weiwei:
From the perspective of the industry and the company itself, the development of AI and carbon neutrality-related industries is more parallel and will not cause conflictsThe breakthrough of AI technology will not make the carbon neutrality industry worse, and the carbon neutrality-related industries are still in a good development trend, and the future space is also very broad, but due to the relationship between the first capital game in the short term, the two sectors have some divergences.
In the longer term, the development of AI will also help industries related to carbon neutralityOn the one hand, the improvement of computing power and the construction of a large number of data centers will increase the demand for green power energy, including energy storage facilitiesOn the other hand, AI is a tool-based technology, and AI empowering all industries is the ultimate goal, and the application of AI technology will also accelerate the development of carbon neutrality-related industries in autonomous driving, humanoid robots, and new energy operation and maintenance.
The above content is for informational purposes only and is not indicative of future performance and is not intended as investment advice. The views expressed herein and ** are current and subject to change.
*There are risks and investment should be cautious. The manager undertakes to manage and use the assets in good faith, diligence and responsibility, but does not guarantee that the capital will be profitable, nor does it guarantee the minimum return. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and other performance managed by the Manager does not constitute a guarantee of performance. Before you make an investment decision, please carefully read the legal documents and risk disclosures such as the contract, the prospectus and the product key facts statement, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics of the company, carefully consider the various risk factors existing in the company, and fully consider your own risk tolerance according to your own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgments and prudent investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions. This is a hybrid type, and its expected return and expected risk level are higher than those of bonds and money markets, but lower than those of the type. This **can invest in the underlying of the Hong Kong Stock Connect**. In addition to the general investment risks such as market fluctuation risks similar to those of mainland investments, the company is also exposed to the unique risks brought about by the differences in investment environment, investment targets, market systems and trading rules under the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism. This **theme**, performance may fluctuate greatly.