On December 12, the ** Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting believed that to do a good job in economic work in 2024, it is necessary to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, completely, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and continue to promote the economy to achieve qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.
At present, the world is in the midst of a new paradigm of change, with economic uncertainty, geopolitical complexity, and profound technological change. Therefore, there are three major directions for the development of the global market economy in 2024. First, global economic growth will slow down, but it will still achieve positive growth. Second, major central banks will start a cycle of interest rate cuts, and interest rates and yield curves will fall. Third, politics will exert great influence in 2024, and continuous geopolitical conflicts will bring more market volatility and shocks to economic development.
Insight into China's economic situation and looking back at the economic trajectory in 2023, in the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP reached 913027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%, the economy has expanded steadily. The first quarter got off to a good start, with growth of 45%；The second quarter continued to recover, with an increase of 63%；In the third quarter, the momentum of stabilization and recovery was obvious, with an increase of 49%。After three years of the impact of the epidemic, China's economic recovery has shown a process of wave-like development and tortuous progress.
In addition, by observing the "macro corners" of China's economy, we can experience that China's economic development has been difficult and hard-won.
Look at the growth rate. The first three quarters grew by 52%, which is significantly faster than the 3% growth rate in the whole of last year, and faster than the average of 4 in the three years of the epidemic5% growth. Against the backdrop of a sluggish world economic recovery, this growth rate continues to lead among major economies. According to preliminary estimates, the whole year is expected to achieve "post-stability" on the basis of "pre-low, medium-high".
Look at employment. ** It is clearly proposed to raise the stabilization of employment to a strategic level and consider it as a whole, and do everything possible to stabilize and expand employment. Despite aggregate and structural pressures, the employment situation is generally improving, with the surveyed urban unemployment rate at 5 in October0%, unchanged from the previous month.
Look at prices. At a time when major developed economies are plagued by high inflation, China's overall price level remains relatively stable, providing sufficient space for stable growth policies. In the first 10 months, the national residents' consumption was 0 year-on-year4%。Look at the balance of payments. At the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3,101.2 billion US dollars, which continued to stabilize at 3Around $1 trillion. As a result, China's economy has shown a good report card.
Looking forward to the development situation in 2024, China's economic development still has many favorable conditions and supporting factors. First, it has the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics. Second, it has the demand advantage of a super-large-scale market. Third, it has the supply advantage of a complete industrial system. Fourth, it has the power advantage brought about by the continuous deepening of reform and opening up. Fifth, it has a relatively large space for macroeconomic regulation and control policies. China's macroeconomic regulation and control system has been further improved, policy reserve tools have been continuously enriched, and macroeconomic regulation and control experience has been accumulated in coping with domestic and foreign risks and challenges, and there is still a lot of room for macroeconomic policies, which will lay a solid foundation for controlling various complex and difficult situations.
Overall, in 2023, China's economy will overcome difficulties and challenges, withstand downward pressure, and the economic recovery will be characterized by wave-like development and zigzag progress, and the overall economic operation will pick up and improve.
At present, some domestic and foreign research institutions believe that China is shifting from an investment-driven growth model to high-quality growth driven by domestic demand, and this structural transformation is being smoothly transitioned and developed with the support of relevant policies. In the medium to long term, China's economy will grow at an average rate of more than 4%. In this context, the green economy, consumption and high technology will become the new driving force of China's economic growth and become the new "troika".
Specifically, the first is the green economy. Green energy, energy storage, electric vehicles and other fields are likely to become important drivers of China's economy. The second is consumption. Mass consumption is expected to increase further due to the increase in the spending of middle-class households in China. In addition, service-oriented industries including personal health care and personal medical care may have greater development, and industries related to the silver economy also have room for growth. The third is high technology. Due to technological innovation and industrial upgrading, China's R&D spending has risen steadily, and it has frequently broken through the "bottleneck" technology. Investment in China's manufacturing sector has remained quite solid in 2023 and will become a new trend in the future.
At the same time, the scale of China's foreign trade continues to improve, the foreign trade structure continues to be optimized, and the development trend of stability and improvement continues to consolidate. In particular, the import and export data of key products such as mechanical and electrical, high-tech and other products performed well. From January to November, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 2 year-on-year8%, maintaining the growth trend, accounting for 58 percent of total exports6%。Among them, mobile phone 8852500 million yuan, an increase of 33%；Car 6529200 million yuan, an increase of 796%……The export of "new three" products of mechanical and electrical products, mobile phones and new energy vehicles has expanded, the export advantages have been continuously consolidated, the competitiveness has been continuously improved, and the new kinetic energy has continuously boosted the high-quality development of foreign trade.
In short, looking ahead, the future development prospects of China's economy are bright, China's economy is resilient, has sufficient potential, has wide room for maneuver, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed. People believe that on the basis of achieving long-term and stable development, China will continue to bring new impetus and new opportunities to China and the world with high-quality development. (Daily Miscellaneous Talk: Jin Maiping).