This article**[Yuyuan Tan Tian];
For some time, the Philippines has been making waves in the South China Sea.
What is the situation in the South China Sea?In the face of the turmoil and waves in the South China Sea, how should we look at it, and what is the way to deal with it?
1.Touching porcelain backbites.
Compared with previous years, the Philippines' actions in the South China Sea this year have a very prominent new feature: Every time the Philippines provokes trouble in the South China Sea, it pays special attention to leaving video materials, taking pictures of the scene of the conflict, and hyping it up.
Compared with before, the Philippines wants to build momentum for itself through ** hype.
Through the analysis of the main communication nodes of overseas social **, it can be found that the vast majority of the accounts involved in the hype are from the United States, of which the American media is one of the most important communication nodes.
The characteristics of the United States as a megaphone for the Philippines can also be traced from the data reported by the US media. Since the new Philippine ** came to power in June 2022, the US media has reported more than 17,000 times, almost double the total number of reports last year and the year before. If we continue to refine to Japan, it will be easier to find that the day or the day after every provocation in the Philippines is the peak of hype in the US media.
What is the intention of the United States and the Philippines to provoke and hype?
When we compare the timeline of the high-frequency hype between the United States and the Philippines with the diplomatic interaction between China and ASEAN around the South China Sea, the direct purpose of the unusually frequent hype between the United States and the Philippines this year becomes obvious.
This year, negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea have progressed rapidly. The frequency of joint working group meetings to advance consultations on this norm is increasing.
As a result, the target of the hype between the Philippines and the United States has been targeted at the consultations between China and ASEAN countries, and the nodes of the hype between the United States and the Philippines have become closer and closer to the duration of the China-ASEAN consultations. The two "harassments" on 22 August and 22 October were even specifically taken on the day of the start of the 40th session of the Working Group and the day before the 41st session of the Working Group.
The Philippines' attempt to stir up trouble in the South China Sea and interfere with the process of the conference has been clearly exposed.
In fact, the United States and the Philippines are trying to sow discord between China and ASEAN countries, and other ASEAN countries have always seen it very clearly. Since June this year, not only has not a single ASEAN country issued an official statement of support for the Philippines, but there have also been few follow-up reports.
Hidden under the negotiations to try to undermine the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea is a more dangerous tendency on the part of the Philippines in its recent handling of the South China Sea issue.
2.Set the fox to keep the geese.
According to a person familiar with the matter, many of the incidents stirred up by the Philippines in the South China Sea are closely related to the instructions of the United States.
In order to fan the flames in the South China Sea, the United States has set up a "smart hand project."
This project is led by retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Raimondo Powell, in collaboration with Filipino counterparts such as the Philippine Coast Guard, as well as some Filipino ***. They planned, planned and implemented the project, confronting, provoking and confronting the Chinese People's Armed Police Force Coast Guard Corps.
All of this is aimed at deliberately creating tensions in the South China Sea, especially in disputed areas between the Philippines and China, such as Scarborough Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal.
After provoking the incident, the Philippines often waited at the scene to film the encounter between Chinese and Philippine ships, and then used distorted angles and "deliberate editing" to concoct the so-called "live scene". From this section of the West, we can even see the scene of the Philippine filmmakers waiting on the ship, expecting a collision between the two sides.
Concocting the image of China as "bullying the small with the big" in the Asia-Pacific region is only the first step.
When Tan further excavated the main communication nodes of the South China Sea operation involving the Philippines, he found that in addition to the vast majority of accounts located in the United States, there were also some accounts in Europe, Australia, Asia and other places that were connected to it.
The "bullet" concocted by the Philippines, and then the "expert" judgment given by the "authoritative figures" of the American academic institutions, and the mainstream of the United States reported it hype, so that the hype of the United States and the Philippines can really penetrate into the ** field of the United States' allies in Europe, Asia and Oceania.
In this regard, a general background that cannot be ignored is that in recent years, NATO's collusion with certain countries in the Asia-Pacific region has gradually deepened. However, if NATO really wants to expand its influence to the entire Asia-Pacific region, it is a good idea to find a breakthrough in Southeast Asia.
And the Philippines, which completed the first general election in the middle of last year, has become the best breakthrough point in terms of adjusting its foreign policy.
Obviously, the rumors and smears of the Philippines about China's image and NATO's slander of China are all for the same purpose, that is, to forcibly implant some of NATO's unreasonable ideas into the Asia-Pacific countries and to intensify the "Asia-Pacific transformation of NATO," which is not going so smoothly at present.
However, the European allies of the United States, especially France and Germany, have always kept their distance from intervening in the Asia-Pacific region, and there is no lack of strong opposition within them.
At the NATO summit in July this year, France's Macron also explicitly rejected the proposal to set up a NATO liaison office in Japan.
In Macron's own words, it is "a big mistake for us to push NATO to expand its sphere of influence and geographical scope".
3.It's hard to go against the odds.
The overall strategy of this psychological war in the South China Sea is to drive a wedge between China and ASEAN within the region, and to bring NATO forces into the Asia-Pacific region outside the region, and none of these seem to be working.
The fundamental reason why the United States has not been able to "impress" the hearts of regional countries in its psychological warfare is that the United States has failed to understand the deep-seated logic of getting along with countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
Historically, the Asia-Pacific region has maintained overall peace and stability for nearly 80 years since the end of World War II. In the safest region of the world, the concept of "development above all else" has long been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
Against the backdrop of declining global investment growth, Southeast Asian countries have created a more stable development environment through close interconnection.
Although the development environment in the region is good and the Philippines has been able to enjoy the dividends, why is it now willing to let the so-called "security" take precedence over development?This has to start with the deep problem of its development.
The United States has long been an important economic partner of the Philippines, but the transformation dilemma that the Philippines is currently facing, including the relative shrinking of the manufacturing industry and the fact that many people go abroad to work, are deeply related to the economic structure that was once overly dependent on the United States.
Perhaps it is because it is at the mercy of others on economic issues, and the Philippines has a grip at the mercy of the United States. However, no matter what promises or threats the United States gives to the Philippines, the problem of development must still be solved by development, and it is impossible to solve the problem of development by manipulating the so-called "security" issue. This may be a stopgap measure, which can be exchanged for a temporary investment ** bargaining chip, but it will not solve the structural problem.
In the end, the Philippines has reached a juncture of what kind of path should be used to solve the problems faced in development.
In the future, will we rely on the strength of the ASEAN and China collectives to seek common development and solve domestic economic problems within the framework of RCEP and other frameworks, or will we exclude ourselves from the ASEAN circle and rely on US military assistance to develop the economy?
If you see the truth about the hype between the United States and the Philippines in the South China Sea, you will understand the true situation and situation.