On Tuesday evening, the release of inflation data from the beautiful country did not surprise the market. Despite some struggles for the US dollar, the focus on Wednesday remained on the Fed's actions. However, the Fed is not expected to take too hawkish rhetoric. At present, the market is still bullish on U.S. stocks, and is expected to stabilize after a sustained trend, while it is under pressure again. ##
USD analysis
According to data released on Tuesday, the annual rate of non-seasonally adjusted CPI in the beautiful country recorded 31%, a new low since June this year, in line with market expectations. However, the seasonally adjusted CPI rate recorded 01%, the highest since September this year, beating market expectations of 0%. The core CPI recorded a monthly rate of 03%, a new high since September this year, in line with market expectations. Although these strong data briefly pushed the dollar index stronger, the 104 mark was still unable to be breached. The interest rate decision in the early hours of tomorrow morning is the focus of the market's attention, and there will not be much action in the event of a high probability.
On the news side, the Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period, and the market is still dominated by **. The Fed's policy rate** contract shows that the Fed is expected to start cutting rates in March 2024. Some have argued that the Fed** is expected to continue to keep interest rates steady, and Chair Powell is likely to highlight the need to see a more sustainable pullback in inflation before easing policy. The specifics will depend on Powell's statement, but it is not expected to be too hawkish, after all, there is no need for too tight policy at this time.
From a technical point of view, it was previously believed that the consolidation effect around 104 existed, and it was necessary to observe whether the Fed released stronger signals in the short term. If no new moves come out, then the game between 103 and 104 will continue, but the key is to stabilize 1045 can effectively open the momentum of the dollar index.
Support level: 103, pressure level: 1045。
Beautiful ** field
U.S. equities remain strong despite some disruption to rate cut expectations on Tuesday night, as well as some uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the early hours of Thursday morning. Technology stocks remain in the market's focus, and no new action from the Fed is expected this time. Therefore, it is advisable to continue the strategy of buying and selling on dips.
Dow Jones Index (US30).
For now, it is advisable to continue the bullish cadence and it is only a matter of time before a test of the previous high of 36952 and an attack on 37000. At present, the market is hot, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support of the 36300 line, and the risk appetite for a significant rebound is still obvious.
Nasdaq-100 Index (NAS100).
The previous all-time high of 16,764 was not surprising. Logically, we will continue to maintain a bearish strategy, and it is recommended to pay attention to the small cycle support of the 16200 line. At the moment, it is only one step away from the previous high, and it is only a matter of time before it breaks through. The upbeat atmosphere is expected to continue to boost the Nasdaq 100.
Support level: 16200, pressure level: 16500.
S&P 500 Index (SPX500).
It is recommended to continue to maintain the bullish rhythm in the short term. In the case of 4600 stabilization, relying on the 4600 line, it is expected to further launch an offensive against the high 4818. The current bullish rhythm is recommended to continue, the opportunity to be bullish on dips is still sufficient, and the small cycle support level is focused on the 4620 line.
Market XAUUSD
According to Tuesday's US inflation data, the core CPI showed some surprises, but the dollar index did not move too strongly. Therefore, for the time being, there is no need to overestimate the phased trend of the dollar, and **after a last** gradual emergence of new opportunities. At the very least, bullish opportunities can be taken into account, but further consideration is needed before the Fed can make a statement.
From a technical point of view, it was previously believed that if the support of the 2000 line could not be maintained, it would not be surprising that the downward pressure would move further downward. At present, 1980 provides good support, and if it can be further repaired to the 2000 line, the possibility of a phased repair** will increase, and the opportunity for further testing of 2030 will also appear. However, in the short term, the pattern of the daily level is more uncertain, and once the 1980 level is broken, the downside may point to the 60-day **1950 line. Support level: 1980, pressure level: 2000.
**Analyze usoil
API inventory data released Wednesday morning showed that U.S.** inventories fell last week, but refined product inventories rose. U.S. ** inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 8, the report showed. Tuesday evening's performance was also relatively weak.
According to market analysis, although global oil demand is unlikely to peak in the next decade, the growth rate in other regions, especially the United States, is much faster than expected, which will put more pressure on the market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.34 million barrels per day, a decrease of 60,000 barrels per day, according to an EIA report on Wednesday morning. The report also lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 to 1.85 million barrels per day, a decrease of 30,000 barrels per day.