On December 23, at the 2024 Global Times Annual Conference with the theme of "Chinese-style modernization to solve the changes in a century", experts and scholars discussed the topic of "population, industry and market: the underlying logic of Chinese-style modernization".
Yuan Xin, a professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University, first listed a set of data, saying that from the founding of New China to today, China has experienced a process of declining birthrate and longevity. From the fifties and sixties of the last century, the average number of children per family has decreased to an average of 1 per family nowOne child, at the same time, the average life expectancy of Chinese has also increased from 45 years to 78 years now. Now the population is in a downward channel, but if you put 11 of the fertility rate increased to: 4, the original new **, in the middle of this century, the total Chinese population can still be maintained at about 1.3 billion.
Yuan Xin believes that the Chinese population dividend has not disappeared, but is in the process of transformation, from human resource advantage to human capital advantage. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has actually relied on the demographic dividend of human resources, labor-intensive industrial structure and high labor participation rate to create an average annual GDP growth rate of more than 9% for about 40 years. Although the quantitative advantage of the population is weakening, there is still a certain stock, and more importantly, the quality of the Chinese population is improving. Yuan Xin said that tens of millions of college graduates every year, as well as about 6 million graduates of secondary technical schools, will become a new driving force for China's future economic development.
Yuan Xin said that whether such a demographic opportunity can be transformed into a first-class dividend depends on economic decision-making and the economic development environment. "One of the most important factors in this is employment", Yuan Xin believes that China's demographic opportunities are in transition, and the means of reaping the demographic dividend should also be transformed accordingly.
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