Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, relations between Japan and Russia have continued to deteriorate, and cooperation between the two sides in a number of areas has been interrupted. Japan, as a member of the G7, has actively followed the pace of Western sanctions against Russia and provided military aid to Ukraine. In response, Russia suspended negotiations on a peace treaty with Japan and halted a series of cooperation. However, the Russian side has said that the two sides can resume dialogue as long as Japan has leeway. However, Fumio Kishida** repeatedly added sanctions and military aid, which led Russia to revise its wording and refer to the Kuril Islands as "inherent land". In addition, the Russian side has also strengthened military deterrence and increased the frequency of cruises, making Japan feel unsafe. With Japan's additional sanctions on the 15th, tensions between the two countries have intensified, and the territorial dispute may be frozen for a long time. Japan's opposition party has called on Kishida to adopt a policy of ambiguity to avoid further deterioration of relations with Russia, but Kishida has insisted on leaning towards the United States, and the situation in East Asia has forced him to speed up the improvement of relations with South Korea.
Japan** announced further additional sanctions and an export ban on organizations involving the Russian military, a scale that is extremely rare in Japan. This includes 57 Russian entities, and the sanctions are in effect from December 22. The sanctions clause also added a new element of "joint and several sanctions", which may further offend more countries. Following the example of the United States' "cross-border sanctions" clause, Kishida** will impose sanctions on third countries suspected of participating in sanctions evasion by the end of the year. This move has attracted widespread attention, and once the sanctions are imposed, the last trust between Japan and Russia could be completely broken.
Not only that, but Russia has revised the wording of the Kuril Islands, defining them as "inherent lands", implying that the region has been incorporated into the territory of the Soviet Union according to the results of World War II, and Russia has indisputable sovereignty over them. Japan, on the other hand, as a party that holds a firm stance on the territorial dispute, strongly opposes this. Instead of responding, Kishida continued to ramp up support for Ukraine, further deteriorating relations with Russia.
Russia's strategic deterrent forces pose a certain threat to Japan. The strategic bomber fleet of the Russian army, as well as the fighter-bombers of the Aerospace Forces, frequently cruised, putting Japan in an unsafe state. Japan** is concerned about this and has strengthened its own defense forces, but it is still concerned about the deterrence of the Russian army.
In this context, Japan's additional sanctions can be described as a move to further provoke Russia. While Japan insists it is defending its interests and values, the move is likely to deepen the antagonism between the two countries and further escalate tensions.
In the face of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the outlook for Japan's relations with Russia is bleak. Even with additional sanctions, Kishida** has not changed its stance of support for Ukraine, leading to an escalation of the confrontation between the two countries. Japan** has a firm stance on the territorial dispute, but in reality, with the stalemate between Russia and Ukraine in the negotiations, Japan's "hope" of regaining the territory can almost be said to be slim.
Despite the Japanese opposition's demand for a vague stance, Kishida has adhered to a policy leaning toward the United States and has chosen to oppose Russia. This stance has strained Japan's relations with its neighbors in East Asia, and it has had to speed up the improvement of relations with South Korea, but this will not be easy, because South Koreans still have mixed feelings about Japan.
In general, since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan's support for Ukraine has been strengthened, with a series of sanctions imposed on Russia. However, this approach not only froze relations with Russia, but also created a number of problems for Japan itself. With additional sanctions, Japan** has further provoked Russia, leading to an intensification of confrontation between the two countries. In addition, Russia's strategic deterrent forces pose a threat to Japan, exacerbating Japan's security concerns. Most worryingly, Japan has taken a firm stance on the territorial dispute, but as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, Japan's prospects of regaining territory have become very slim. Kishida's policy choices have also been questioned by the opposition, who have called for a more flexible stance to avoid further deterioration of relations with Russia. However, in the current political climate, this seems difficult to achieve. Personally, I believe that Japan should seek dialogue and cooperation with Russia while safeguarding its own interests in order to ensure stability and peace in the region. Only through the peaceful settlement of disputes can real well-being be brought to both countries and the region.