The purpose of the sanctions and other measures taken by the United States is said to be to protect its technological superiority from being stolen by other countries and to avoid the impact on the US economy. However, when the U.S. chooses the best core technology for other countries, we must carefully consider the motives behind it. After all, the U.S. usually doesn't share its core products easily, especially when it knows that other countries are catching up with its technological prowess. This has sparked speculation about the true intentions of the United States, and we need to carefully interpret the underlying motivations behind this move. Because the U.S. is not acting without purpose, their intentions may be more than we initially thought. Therefore, we need to think about how to understand and defuse the pitfalls that the United States may set.
In recent years, the birth of C919 has filled the gap in China's aviation field and has become an important milestone. However, is it possible that the United States will use C919 as a hole card in negotiations?This is a question that requires deep thought.
One of the regrets of the past is the relative lag of the U.S. transportation system. While China has built thousands of kilometers of high-speed rail, the United States has been slow to make progress and has even reached an impasse on a few projects. There is a hidden factor behind this phenomenon: the national economy of the United States is more dependent on ***, and it is also the world's leading aviation power.
Unlike China, the U.S. aviation industry is more developed and the market is more mature. This has made the U.S. aviation industry strong, but it has also led to the marginalization of rail traffic in the United States, which in turn has created a constraint on the development of high-speed rail.
Comparatively speaking, China's demand for the civil aviation industry is more urgent, because China's vast territory needs a huge air transport system to support it. According to relevant agencies**, China's demand for new aircraft will reach 8,560 in the next 20 years, accounting for about 20% of the global market. This huge market has attracted global attention, especially the United States, hoping that its dominant Boeing will dominate China's aviation market.
But is this wish realistic?Because it is obvious that as such an important industry, it is difficult for China to rely entirely on foreign companies for its aviation industry. In addition, Airbus is also a competitor to Boeing, and the two have long been fiercely competitive in the global aviation market. Moreover, Boeing's development in recent years has not been satisfactory.
Therefore, although it was not optimistic about China's large aircraft project Yun-10 before, now China has embarked on the journey of independent development of large aircraft. At the same time, the United States has changed its attitude towards China and has begun to cooperate more. In areas such as engines and control systems, the United States has cooperated with China. The reason behind this shift is that the United States recognizes that China, as a huge market, cannot be completely dependent on the outside**, and that Boeing faces challenges on multiple fronts.
Overall, changes in U.S. actions and attitudes may imply more strategic considerations, and we need to assess the situation and cooperate and compete with the U.S. in a more sensible way.
Boeing has suffered frequent aircraft accidents in recent years, especially the grounding of the 737 MAX series, which has attracted widespread attention. In addition, Boeing's financial situation has not been optimistic. In the face of these challenges, Boeing urgently needs to find a new path forward.
In this case, it becomes a possibility to rely closely on the Chinese market. Recently, the United States and China have carried out in-depth cooperation in the field of large aircraft parts. For an aircraft, the engine is considered to be the heart of the aircraft, and mastering the engine means mastering the entire aircraft. In addition, the engine is the most expensive part of the aircraft's cost. Therefore, the United States can bring huge benefits to the United States in its struggle to control the aero engine market.
Rumor has it that the United States may have the ability to remotely control aircraft and obtain data. While these rumors have not yet been confirmed, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out.
The intention of the United States is obvious, trying to regain a firm grasp of China's core technology in order to dictate the pace of China's development. This control also involves the most important distribution of benefits, and may even involve the control of the entire flight safety. This situation is similar to what we experience in the semiconductor industry. Although we have a certain amount of technological accumulation, the most critical core technologies are still in the hands of the West, and the slightest carelessness may face supply cuts and sanctions, which forces us to make concessions.
But we have already suffered in this area, so we will avoid falling into a similar predicament again in the future, because it is at stake for our core development interests.
China has a "two-step" strategy. The market for technology is to cultivate talents and expand the market, and independence means the importance of getting rid of external influences.
The market-for-technology model has not been unsuccessful. For example, our high-speed rail technology originally originated in Germany and Japan, but through continuous independent research and development and innovation, we have successfully developed our own high-speed rail Fuxing.
Today, we work with Western companies to develop large aircraft for the same purpose. In the field of large aircraft, the world is dominated by two companies, Boeing and Airbus, and other countries are either unable to develop on their own or are squeezed by the United States to survive.
Therefore, we need to leverage the power of partners, and companies like Boeing have become a good choice. In addition, the introduction of these companies is not without its benefits.
It is foreseeable that in the next two decades, China will receive nearly 10,000 large aircraft, which accounts for only about 20% of the global market. In other words, there is still nearly 80% of the global market share waiting to be captured.
We urgently need to accelerate the pace of talent development and focus on the international market. Going abroad is crucial for us, and gaining recognition from Western countries is a key part, especially with their airworthiness certificates.
In the field of aircraft manufacturing, standards and norms are mainly held by European and American countries, and if they cannot be recognized, our international development will be even more difficult. This is a reality we have to face.
In addition to cooperation, we are also constantly advancing research and development. In recent years, we have made certain breakthroughs in the field of turbofan and turboprop series engines.
We are making every effort to develop the Yangtze River 1000 and Yangtze River 2000 in the field of civil aviation, and we are actively preparing for the research and development of C929 not only C919.
What is certain is that the likelihood that the United States wants to impose a technological blockade on us again is already very small. In recent years, our cooperation with France has increased significantly, and even Airbus has established a production line in China.
In general, it is unlikely that the United States will impose another technological blockade on us. We foresee that the development of large aircraft in China will inevitably have an impact on the Western aviation industry, just like the shipbuilding and automotive industries we have today.
We knew right from the start that we were going for the future. For Europe and the United States, in the face of the imminent shock, it is more advantageous to join the ranks of partners than to isolate.