Reading guide:
The first quarter of 2024 will be higher than expected overall, led by the over-falling sectors in the early stage, and interspersed with event-driven opportunities, and the height of the first depends on the speed of low-level institutional covering.
Text|Brother Kunpeng.
In the last two trading days before the holiday, the market basically rose, and the most powerful sector was the electrical equipment sector that dragged down the index the most last year and was also the largest decline in the whole yearIt can be made clear that this round of the market is caused by the over-falling plates, and most of the over-falling sectors last year will gain a certain amount of space in this round.
The market in the first quarter of 2024 will be generally stableIf the speed of low**institutional replenishment is relatively fast, it may also trigger a wave of more aggressive trends**After all, there will always be a "reflexive" effect in the market, when it falls, we continue to sell, and when it rises, we continue to buy, in essence, we are "trend investors", only to follow the trend, strengthen the trend, and finally lead to a very small force in the reversal of the trend.
The driving force of the first quarter does not come from economic expectations or policy expectations, but from the natural law that the market will rise after a long fall, so there is no need to think too much about the good or bad economy, whether the policy is beyond expectations, etc., the first quarter pays too much attention to fundamentals or macro factors, which will make you "unable to find a reason to rise" and miss the **, the power that drives the market itself is divided into many kinds, and the driving forces at different stages are different.
As for the height of **, the trend reversal will not end soon, and it will be higher if the reflexive effect of "the trend and the expectation reinforce each other" appear in the later stage.
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