The overall situation of the chip law has been decided, the $250 billion plan may fail, and TSMC may not be able to deal with it
Although the United States occupies a dominant position in the semiconductor chain in many aspects such as chip manufacturing equipment and chip design, the global chip manufacturing center is not in the region where the United States is located, so American experts sincerely comment: The United States has lost its leading position in the field of chip manufacturing. In this case, the semiconductor power in the United States has launched a large order of $52 billion to subsidize and encourage these integrated circuit equipment manufacturers and so on.
Recently, there has been new news about this large wafer order of more than 50 billion US dollars. According to relevant sources, the application process for enterprises will be announced this month, including the relevant stages and timelines for applying for subsidies, fund allocation and subsidy amounts. Obviously, the entire chip order has been decided so far, and this is indeed the focus of many chip manufacturers, after all, because of this subsidy issue, the two major chip giants Intel and TSMC have choked many times in public, and it is not difficult to see that it is important to build a factory or not.
In other words, this news is also considered to be a reassuring pill for many companies that want to set up factories in the United States, but this may not include TSMC. Moreover, after the aftermath of this news, the goal of American semiconductors is clearer, that is, what was originally said to give the United States 250 billion US dollars, otherwise it will fall. Then listen to the analysis.
First of all, the $250 billion thing, as early as 2021, when this $250 billion bill was passed to increase spending on science and technology research and development. Then, after the CHIPS Act's $52 billion subsidy came along, the money was mentioned. But now, there is news of the $52 billion in subsidies, but the $250 billion has not yet been settled. In addition, at the beginning of the introduction of the $250 billion bill, many people in the United States questioned that this was a blank check for these companies. Although I don't know why this is the case, since it is not on the agenda now, I am afraid that the possibility of this subsidy will be lost.
As for why TSMC said that the $52 billion subsidy is a foregone conclusion, for TSMC, this is not certain, because it is very likely that the subsidy received by TSMC is not so high. As we all know, TSMC plans to invest $40 billion in the United States to expand chip factories. According to sources familiar with the inside story, when TSMC was building a factory, it was rumored that it and the American chip factory would receive a large amount of subsidies, but so far, the subsidies have not been fulfilled. But it is not because of this that this speculation arises, after all, the subsidy process has only begun to be put on the agenda, and it is normal for TSMC to not get subsidies for the time being, and the key is in the $250 billion subsidy that it has not yet implemented.
At the beginning, because of the more than 200 billion US dollars, they quarreled internally, and even thought that this would not help the development of the US semiconductor industry, because they thought that so many subsidies were likely to reopen factories that had been closed for more than 20 years. Frankly, their purpose is to get more subsidies, and whether they have the ability to do so or not, it is likely that they will reopen factories for this purpose. This indirectly shows that among the huge subsidies they receive, it is more American companies that have eaten the sweetness. Therefore, in their eyes, TSMC may not be cost-effective compared with foreign companies.
Therefore, this has to make people question, isn't spending money and technology to build a TSMC factory in the United States more promising than a closed factory?If the subsidy is centered on American companies, then it may be true, but if you want to bring TSMC together, in the final analysis, it depends on whether American semiconductor companies can find sincerity. What are your thoughts on this?