What is the significance behind India's sudden announcement of reconciliation with the United National Liberation Front in Manipur, which is in Burma?
1. India reconciles with the "rebels".
On November 29, Manipur announced that the state's militant group Manipur United National Liberation Front had reached a rapprochement with Manipur** and India's Ministry of Home Affairs to sign a peace agreement. The Indian side called it a "historic milestone" that is of great significance for advancing the peace process in Manipur and the north-eastern region. At the same time, India also released data that the separatist movement in the northeast of the country has decreased, with separatist incidents in the region in 2002 falling by 76% compared to 2014, the number of security forces** falling by 76%, and the number of civilians** falling by 97%.
The six northeastern states of India have a complex ethnic composition, have always had strong separatism, and are extremely unstable. In May this year, large-scale clashes broke out in Manipur during a rally, with 55 troops and rifle teams dispatched, and even orders were issued to "shoot directly in extreme cases".
Manipur is separated from the state of Assam, and it is bordered by Myanmar to the east and bordered by the states of Assam, Mizoram and Nagaran. The area of the state is about 2It is 20,000 square kilometers and has a population of 2.85 million.
Manipur's pro-independence tendencies are very strong. The state is one of the most chaotic parts of India, with high levels of nationalist and militant group activity. According to data from India, in the period from 1992 to 2013. The death toll in Manipur as a result of the insurgency and violence is as high as 5,895. In addition, Manipur serves as a land gateway between India and Myanmar, and is also a hub for drug trade between the two countries. Relying on the drug trade, Manipur is richer than the rest of northeastern India. However, there are no stable conditions for economic development, and agriculture is still the main product, and the main industrial products are handmade fabrics.
There are three main armed forces in the area, namely the United National Liberation Front, the Manipur People's Liberation Army and the Naga National Socialist Council. Founded in 1964, the United National Liberation Front (NILF) was founded in 1964 as the first separatist armed group in Manipur with the goal of creating an independent socialist state for the Manipur people with an internal membership of about 4,500 people.
This rapprochement provides a good opportunity for India to contain other forces in the northeast. There are dozens of cross-border ethnic groups between the six northeastern states of India and Myanmar, and each ethnic group has its own armed forces, and the relationship is complex, and many cross-border activities are carried out. The United National Liberation Front (UNIPF) in Manipur can become a link for India to contain them and play an important role in the stability of the northeast region.
Second, India's move is intended for Myanmar
India's northeastern part borders Myanmar, which is the other northern Myanmar, and India has a special interest in Myanmar. This interest lies in the fact that India and Myanmar have a cooperative relationship in combating the incursions of civilian forces between the two countries. The Naga, Shan, Kachin and other ethnic groups often engage in guerrilla warfare with the ** army on the border between the two countries, which is a major factor leading to the instability of the India-Myanmar border. So the two countries have established a cooperation mechanism. Moreover, since the coup d'état of the Myanmar army, Myanmar has been subject to a lot of sanctions, but India has publicly expressed its support for the Tatmada and has provided $51 million in aid to the Tatmadaw army.
In addition, Myanmar's geographical location is very special for India. India has always wanted to contain our country, and if Myanmar falls to China, then India is undoubtedly very passive. As a result, India has made massive investments and deployments in Myanmar. India has put forward the "Look East Strategy" and the "Bay of Bengal Multi-Sector Economic and Technical Cooperation Initiative" strategy. The two strategies aim to use Myanmar as a fulcrum, expand India's influence to the Indochina Peninsula and other parts of Southeast Asia, and build an economic and trade corridor around the Bay of Bengal through cooperation with Bangladesh and Myanmar, while cutting off the China-Myanmar corridor and the Trans-Asian Railway, which are dominated by China. A more vivid example is China's cooperation with Myanmar in the development of Kyaukpyu Port, hoping to open up a direct channel to the Indian Ocean. India and Myanmar have cooperated in the construction of Sittwe Port. Sittwe Port is located in Rakhine State, Myanmar, and is an important link between mainland India, the six northeastern states, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. It can be said that Myanmar is an important fulcrum for India to advance into Southeast Asia, cut off our access to the Indian Ocean, and compress China's economic and geopolitical space.
Therefore, stabilizing the situation in the northeast is probably India's preparation to intervene in the situation in Myanmar.