Less than 24 hours after Taiwan's first televised political conference in 2024**, the mainland announced the termination of tariff concessions for 12 products under the ECFA. Although the authorities claimed that the impact was not great, Zhao Chunshan, Ma Ying-jeou's former core think tank, was not optimistic.
Zhao Chunshan said: "At present, the mainland is advancing the process of cross-strait reunification step by step in the form of 'slicing sausages.' Last week, it was determined that Taiwan Island constituted the first barrier, and this week's cancellation of tariff concessions on some Taiwan products is the second time. The mainland is warning Taiwan and letting the people of Taiwan understand that the mainland is not just talking, but will take practical actions. As for whether the mainland will suspend the ECFA, we can know that Taiwan will end next year. ”
According to Zhao Chunshan's view, the mainland has already started the strategy of "economically impoverishing Taiwan" and is now moving forward step by step, depending on the election situation on Taiwan Island, and deciding the direction of the next step.
Hong Kong media believe that "the suspension of tariff concessions on 12 products shows that the mainland has made up its mind and acted seriously; if the Taiwan authorities do not face up to the problem and take the 92 consensus as a view, the mainland will definitely introduce more severe sanctions, and there is not much time left for Taiwan." ”
In this regard, Hong Xiuzhu, former chairman of the Kuomintang, said: "* Constantly provoking the mainland, not believing that friendly cross-strait exchanges are beneficial to Taiwan Island, and under all kinds of extreme measures, let the mainland understand that as long as Taiwan Island is beneficial, over time, the mainland will naturally take Taiwan Island." If the Kuomintang returns to power, it may be possible to negotiate, but if Lai Qingde is in power, all day long, 'resist China and oppose China', why should he expect benefits from the mainland, isn't it a meal and a bowl?No one can stand it. ”
Hong Xiuzhu's remarks are very reasonable, the mainland's suspension of tariff concessions on 12 products is completely the result of the *** authorities not knowing it and blindly hostile and provoking the mainland, but the *** authorities have no reflection, but instead deceive the people of Taiwan, claiming that it has little impact on the people of Taiwan, and the purpose is to stabilize the election situation.
As for the future of the ECFA, the authorities have proposed to negotiate under the WTO framework. Hong Xiuzhu revealed the truth and said, "The authorities are changing the law to seek independence, because the negotiations under the WTO framework involve relations between countries." And to solve the ECFA issue, the most important thing is to sit down and talk between the two sides of the strait, if it is unacceptable and continues to govern, then the ECFA will really be terminated in the future. ”
I have to say that Hong Xiuzhu is one of the few sane and sober people on the island who can clearly recognize the intentions behind such a move by the mainland.
In Hong Xiuzhu's statement, he did not specifically talk about "what specific serious impact the mainland's suspension of tariff concessions on 12 products will have on Taiwan Island." Scholars on the island have made a specific analysis of this.
In the view of Professor Du Zhenhua of Taiwan, the 12 items that have been cancelled from preferential tariffs are all petrochemical products. Taiwan's petrochemical exports are mostly based on the mainland. If Taiwanese companies resume paying tariffs, even if the tax rate is only around 2%, it will be difficult to compete with Southeast Asia and South Korea, which have been exempted from tariffs, due to the high degree of homogeneity of products and competitors, and it is very likely that they will move out one after another, which may affect the downstream industry to move out one after another, and it is estimated that it will impact the employment of 400,000 people and the lives of millions of people, and the relevant impact is by no means as weak as the Tsai authorities said.
Based on this major impact, Du Zhenhua gave a solution, emphasizing that "the best response of the Taiwan authorities is to immediately deal with the cross-strait dispute, including proposing a plan to lift the control of 2,509 goods on the mainland in the short term, which will provide Taiwan manufacturers with sufficient adjustment period, and then gradually reduce their dependence on the mainland." ”
The starting point of Du Zhenhua's solution is to reduce the cross-strait ** and reduce dependence on the mainland. In terms of purpose, it is still irrational and sober. However, Rao is so, is it possible for the authorities to listen to Du Zhenhua's advice?Absolutely not. **It will only go further and further on the road of "anti-China and anti-China" and go to the point of no return!