Previously, "Experts Say Energy Storage" reported on the "Top Ten Suspense of the Energy Storage Industry in 2024", and while the energy storage industry is full of uncertainty, there are also some "strange situations", people outside the siege want to come in, and people in the siege want to go out.
The first monster has a 3-fold increase in installed capacity, but it is built but not used
According to CNESA revealed at the energy storage conference today (8th), as of the end of December 2023, China has put into operation a total of 34 new energy storage capacity5gw/74.5GWh, the power and energy scale increased by more than 150% year-on-year;In 2023, China will put into operation 21 new energy storage installations5gw/46.6GWh, three times the level of new operation scale in 2022.
However, behind the continuous expansion of the scale of energy storage operation, there is a prominent problem that the actual project utilization rate is generally low. According to a report by the China Electricity Council, the average utilization coefficient of China's electrochemical energy storage power stations in the first half of 2023 is 009, the average utilization index is 034, with an average conversion efficiency of 8385% with an average overall efficiency of 7869%。
On the one hand, this is due to the fact that in the context of mandatory energy storage for wind and solar projects, the cost is increased but there is no corresponding income, and supporting energy storage is not taken seriouslyOn the other hand, the low yield of power stations is also one of the reasons for "building but not using".
Today, there are even rumors in the market that due to the failure of the yield, the five major and six small schools will all give up the lithium battery energy storage project, but the rumors were quickly refuted: there are no relevant documents to stop the project such as the State Power Investment Corporation. The current contradiction of energy storage lies in the contradiction between the mandatory distribution and storage requirements and the economics of energy storage projects, which will inevitably increase the rate of return of assets in the future, and the subsequent changes in the mandatory distribution and storage policies and the changes in the mechanism of energy storage participation in the power market remain to be observed.
The second blame is that the capacity utilization rate is less than 5 percent, and it is still expanding against the trend
It is reported that up to now, the planned construction capacity of energy storage battery and system integration projects has exceeded 15TWh, while the global shipment of energy storage batteries by domestic enterprises in the first ten months of 2023 was 163GWh, and the capacity utilization rate of the energy storage lithium battery industry in the third quarter was generally less than 50%.
While shouting about excess, we will continue to expand production, and the trend of "contrarian" expansion of energy storage will continue in 2024. At the beginning of January, there was a total investment of 5.5 billion yuan in the Anqing 10GWH energy storage battery intelligent manufacturing project of Guoke Energy, and a total investment of 3.1 billion yuan in the new energy storage battery pack intelligent manufacturing base project of Concord New Energy Group.
At present, the expansion of the head enterprises is mainly due to the "inertia" of investment, that is, the investment planned in advance has to be implemented, and most of the manufacturers expand production for the purpose of "investment for market", that is, most of the local energy storage application resources will be bound to the local signing landing. The "first-class war" caused by the imbalance between supply and demand is accelerating the reshuffle of the industry, and the head players are expanding production to occupy the market layout after the elimination of the industry.
The third blame is that the cost has fallen, and the rate of return is difficult to land
Recently, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate** fell below 100,000 tons, compared with the high point of about 500,000 tons at the beginning of 2023, the annual decline is 80%.
Lithium carbonate** is transmitted to the product end. According to SMM energy storage data, on January 8, the range of square lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage type 280AH** was 038-0.50 yuan wh, the average price is 044 yuan Wh, prismatic iron phosphate battery (energy storage type, 100ah)** range is 040-0.52 yuan wh, the average price is 0$46 wh. The centralized procurement of some energy storage cells** has even been pushed down to 0Below 4 yuan Wh, a decrease of more than 50% compared with the beginning of the year, lower than the cost price of some battery cell enterprises.
The double drop in energy storage has led to a significant increase in energy storage yield. According to the relevant report of Soochow**, the average winning price of energy storage systems and EPC in December 2023 has dropped to 08-0.9/1.1-1.2 yuan Wh, taking the Shandong market as an example, it is estimated that 30% of the IRR of the 2H optical storage system is 33% to 88%, shared energy storage from 05% to 68%。
However, the actual rate of return is difficult to meet expectations, and energy storage projects cannot be operated. A user-side energy storage practitioner revealed that since most of the high-quality projects have been developed, the actual income of the project is not very ideal, and the owner's requirements for the quality of operation and maintenance services have been improved, which has pushed up the "best cost", and the domestic user-side energy storage market may not be hot in the short term.
Note: For more inventory of the energy storage industry in 2023, please scan the code to pay attention to the "TOP500+** Chain Library of the New Energy Storage Industry (2024 Edition)".