In the past two days, many people have been speculating about who is selling at this time.
The reason is that I saw that CITIC ** issued a report, saying that the direct cause of this round of ** was the opening of the three-year closure period, and the people were redeeming.
It also pointed out that the weekly ** net redemption rate since October has been as high as 06%。
If this redemption rate is really true, there will be 30 billion funds smashed every day.
Later, CITIC ** came out to refute the rumors, but the market seemed to prefer to believe it.
Who's selling?Let's break down the flow of money and we can have a rough answer.
I'll end with an even more paradoxical answer.
Since the central bank announced the interest rate cut, foreign capital should be the main smashing force, because it has marginal pricing power, so it directly brought the market and collapsed the mood.
But with the Fed's pivot, the selling power of the last month or so has been exhausted, and there is also a divergence among foreign capital.
The power to sell is gradually weakening, and the power of ** is gradually increasing.
The two forces are about to reach a point of equilibrium that cancels each other out.
And the power to sell usually moves in the morning, and the power of ** usually moves in the afternoon.
As a result, foreign capital has often stepped out of the V-shaped trend recently.
In short,At present, the weekly selling power of foreign capital cannot dominate the market, with an average outflow of about 5 billion per week.
Since September, leveraged funds have been rapid**
But it has remained stable in the past month, and it may be that we are waiting for a signal from the right.
On the other hand, due to the restrictions imposed by the management on securities lending and lending, and also increased the margin ratio, the power of short selling is obviously exhausted. See diagram below.
In general, the flow of funds in the two financial areas is:Small inflows.
There is no noticeable impact on the market.
From the perspective of listed companies, the amount of repurchase this year is around 200 billion.
In terms of IPOs, the volume has been reduced by 80%, and about 80-10 billion blood can be pumped out every month.
In addition, about 560 billion yuan has been raised this year, which seems to be a lot, but it is already the lowest level since 2014.
There will be an outflow of more than 40 billion per month.
*, it has also been greatly reduced, but it can also draw about 10 billion blood per month.
Therefore, from the perspective of listed companies, there will be an outflow of about 30 billion per month.
This year, the net inflow of ETFs is as high as 470 billion, and the average monthly inflow is about 40 billion.
In December, there has been an inflow of more than 45.6 billion, which is quite vigorous.
The proportion of institutions and individuals is roughly the same.
However, the proportion of institutions has increased faster recently, and it is estimated that some allocation funds and national teams are quietly buying.
Public and private data cannot be tracked on a daily basis, so the uncertainty is relatively high.
Judging from the results of institutional calculations, the public offering has not changed much.
The private placement hit a new low in October, according to the urine nature of the private placement**If you don't enter the right side, there is a high probability that they will not increase their position.
We always see a lot of people singing a lot on the Internet, butIn fact, now that knowledge and action are united, there are not so many people who dare to do more.
In addition, we also need to consider the subscription and redemption of public and private offerings.
Now the subscription of public and private offerings is at the freezing point.
Accurate data on redemptions can only be seen in the annual report.
However, there are a lot of ** company friends among my friends, and according to them, it seems that there is indeed a certain amount of redemption pressure.
Isn't it rumored that the people are redeeming the opening of **?
From a statistical point of view, the fixed opening ** that expires in November is indeed a bit much. But it's not so easy to smash the market with this amount.
In short, there is a high probability that the public and private offerings are selling, but it is not possible to assess the strength of the sale for the time being.
In addition to the fact that the redemption cannot be traced, the flow of funds and travel funds cannot be accurately tracked.
The main funds and ** funds that we see in the brokerage's software are actually unreal.
Because it tracks the flow of large and small orders.
But who said that the main force must be a big order?Couldn't they be split into smaller orders?
In other words, when they want to suck low, they will buy slowly with a small order.
In the same way, the main funds sold are not necessarily all large orders.
From the chart below, we can see that even in the bull market in 2020, the main funds are constantly selling. How do you explain it?
Therefore, there is no reference to these capital flows on the software.
After the above analysis, what we can see is that the funds that can be accurately tracked are roughly in a state of supply and demand balance.
Then it is these data that cannot be accurately tracked that determine the trend.
Therefore, is ** and Jimin cutting meat?
You can judge for yourself.
But I'd also like to share a more paradoxical fact.
Let's think about a question.
There are 100 billion funds that want to sell, and there are 100 billion funds that want to **, will the stock price rise or fall?
This is a difficult question to answer because stock prices can go up or down.
The deciding factors are:Who is more urgent!
If the people of ** don't care and can afford it, and the people who sell can't stand the torture and sell one after another, then the stock price will fall.
These ** people split the big order into a small order and buy it slowly.
They can even smash the market with a sum of money first, scaring people who are in a hurry to sell, making them even more panicked and urgent.
Then these ** people will be able to buy cheaper chips.
In the same way, if there is a big good news, * people are very anxious, then the stock price will rise sharply.
And those who originally wanted to sell it won't sell if they can't do it!He may choose"Let's take a look."
Judging from the recent V-shaped trend of throwing in the morning and picking up in the afternoon, you can think for yourself who is more anxious.
If this trend is very persistent, then there is no doubt that someone is not in a hurry to buy and have fun.
It's just that this will make a lot of people scared.
Sometimes, the funds you want to buy are 120 billion, and the funds you want to sell are 100 billion, and you can still smash a big hole first.
What I often share with you is:The ** at the bottom is false.
A lot of people don't understand this sentence.
If you still care so much about Mr. Market's ** at the bottom, it's weird to be able to hold it!
The only thing we know for sure is valuation!
Unfortunately, the market is now too scared to believe in valuations.
The longer they grind, the less they will believe this common sense.
You think, when the vicious dogs attack us, we just need to crouch down and pretend to pick up stones, and they won't dare to come!
* Scare a few more times, and so will people.