Iran and Russia have agreed to use their own currencies instead of the US dollar for transactions, and I believe that in the future, more countries will gradually choose their own currencies instead of the US dollar in international transactions. After all, after World War II, the United States used the tide of the dollar to continuously harvest the wool of countries around the world to maintain the rapid development of the domestic economy.
The basis of the rapid development of the US economy is to use the US dollar's international status to transmit inflation to the global economy. Such an approach can be described as a dare of various countries to be angry but not to speak. Now that we have a beginning, we will form a trend in the future. The impact on the US dollar in the short term is limited. But in the long run, it is indeed a long-term measure to dilute US sanctions.
Iraqi Ministry of Energy: Iraq agreed to jointly develop oil fields with Iran. I personally believe that such a piece of news is of great significance to the Middle East region. However, due to US sanctions and historical problems, the two Irans have not been able to develop together. Economic growth will inevitably be constrained by this. Now, whether it is the easing of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia this year, or the cooperation between Iran and Iran. It is more representative of the stability of the international energy market.
If the Middle East can unite as one, it will naturally weaken the United States' energy pricing power in the future. At the same time, it is also sending a message to the world that the Middle East region can develop peacefully without the existence of certain great power games. This will have a positive effect on the world economy. Judging from the current world situation, certain countries should uphold peaceful coexistence, non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and work together for development, which is the future economic orientation.
At least such cooperation is hard-won, but the United States will not sit idly by and let it tell the development. According to the urine nature of capital, especially the United States ** in 2024, it seems that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is gradually quieting down. In fact, in the first quarter of 2024, it is inevitable that there will be a recurrence. After all, the situation in the Red Sea remains complicated. The same Biden's approval rating during his tenure can go all the way**.
The next step is either a soft landing for the economy or a re-election with the wartime option. I think every American** has considered the second option. It's just a matter of chance becoming immature. There is still hope for a soft landing for the U.S. economy, so it's too early to consider the uncertainty that the U.S. has to offer, and we can't ignore it.
In the United States, the API ** inventory increased by 183 in the week to December 2270,000 barrels, a significant decrease of 2.6 million barrels that exceeded expectations. The increase in U.S.** inventories indicates a decrease in economic activity, leading to lower market demand. As a result, the inventory has been increased, which is negative for ***.
But from another perspective, it also reflects the expectation that economic activity will decline and future economic data may deteriorate. Take, for example, the upcoming US employment data. Factory orders, manufacturing indices and more. Of course, this is only a reasonable assumption from one aspect.
In other words, next week's non-farm payrolls data will also need to be used as an important reference to see if it can really prove that the US economy is weakening in December. For the next trend, I personally think that it is biased towards bearish, and the specific layout of the next wave can be considered to join the real market.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said there is no rush to tighten ultra-loose monetary policy because the risk of "inflation well above 2% and accelerating" is small, but the probability of ending negative interest rates next year is not zero.
Let's just say when Kazuo Ueda learned Powell's Tai Chi, some time ago, because the Bank of Japan revealed that the yen may change the current era of negative interest rates in the future, and the speeches for several days in a row were full of affirmation for interest rate hikes.
Now that you see the strengthening of the yen, you are not in a hurry. Instead, he came to try to get away with it. It may be because of the recent ** of the dollar index and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will implement an accommodative monetary policy next, which has given the Japanese economy a temporary breather. At the same time, the exchange rate did not get out of control further, and the adjustment of monetary policy for the future was relaxed.
So for the foreign exchange market, the yen is affected by the normal swing of the central bank's speech, and it is more inclined to follow the trend of the dollar index in the future. And I think that from the perspective of countries that are dependent on the U.S. economy like Japan and South Korea, sooner or later they will become a stepping stone for the U.S. economy. The dependency is too strong.
Regarding the recent trend of the yen, this comment dismisses the possibility of a possible interest rate hike in the near future, which is not good for the strengthening of the yen exchange rate.
From a technical point of view, this round of USD/JPY exchange rate ** is mainly due to the expected interest rate hike released by the Bank of Japan in the early stage, and the subsequent interest rate cut expectations released by the Federal Reserve, which led to a sharp weakening of the US dollar. The market outlook is still focused on the bearish pressure, but we find that one feature is that the strength of the new low is weakening, so this signal is also worth paying attention to.
International **Today** trend analysis:
Today, the international ** recommends a bullish relationship between 2072-2068, because this range is the suppressed position that broke through yesterday. At the moment, the top-bottom conversion becomes a bullish support range. Secondly, from a technical point of view, the current market rhythm is still a trend of low and high points, and the trend of new highs is still bullish to avoid shorting. The strength of the daily level yang line is still relatively strong, and the matter of copying the top is not considered as much as possible. Unless today the market ** tested 2068, after which it hit a new high. Timingally it is possible to consider a chance of a top on Friday night. But at the moment it does not have the characteristics of the top.
Personal opinions are for informational purposes only. As a trader, I have been in the market for 7 years, and the above content represents my humble opinion and is not used as a basis for investors. If you agree with my point of view. Welcome to follow, like, ** If you disagree with my point of view, you are also welcome to teach and correct. Personal originality, it is not easy, without permission, shall not be carried **, thank you for your understanding