Charlie Munger, a pioneer in the convergence of the investment world and psychology, has come up with a thought-provoking concept: the "Lollapalooza Effect". This theory reveals how emotions and cognitive biases reinforce each other, which together shape the collective psychology of markets. In 2024, global investors are rethinking their strategies, especially with regard to a group of companies known as the "Magnificent Seven" — Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia — Is the recent buying boom based on actual investment logic, or is it just a mass madness?
Looking back at 2023, the S&P 500 bucked the trend and returned as much as 20% in total, despite the consensus expectation that higher interest rates would dampen performance. It is worth noting that the main driving force of this upward trend is precisely these seven tech giants. In terms of market capitalization, they account for a whopping 29% of the entire index – the highest market capitalization ever recorded by the seven publicly traded companies since 1980. What's even more shocking is that they have a total return of 72%. Behind this, hedging**'s long-term investment in cutting-edge technologies, especially generative AI, has played a non-negligible role in driving up the valuations of these companies. According to the latest data from Goldman Sachs, the remaining 493 S&P 500 stocks** returned just 8% if the "Magnificent Seven" were excluded.
Source**: Asset Information Network, Qianji Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Department.
However, the combination of high valuations, market concentration and persistently high interest rates has created unprecedented unease for investors. Many are beginning to worry about whether the current market trend will repeat the dot-com bust of the early 2000s, or the decline of the '70s "Nifty Fifty," which was once seen as a solid "and hold" growth stock. Historically, at the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle, it usually happens. It's worth noting, however, that the dot-com bubble burst was a notable exception. As a result, market participants are particularly anxious about the direction of the current situation.
At this critical juncture, investors need to weigh risks and benefits more carefully. Munger's insights remind us that it's not just numbers and trends, that human psychology plays a vital role in the world of investing. As the market environment continues to change, investors should develop flexible strategies based on prudent analysis to deal with various situations that may arise in the future. In this financial game full of uncertainties, rationality and insight will be the most valuable asset of every investor.
Charlie Munger's philosophy, with its common-sense approach, provides us with a stable place in the volatile sea of investment. The first thing to point out is that people have an innate tendency to categorize things. The much-discussed "Rosewood Seven" is actually a hybrid of different businesses, all future-proofed, but with different business scopes ranging from artificial intelligence to semiconductors to green transition. This means that while they may face certain challenges and opportunities together as a group, the fate of each company is independent of the others.
Among the seven companies, for example, Berkshire Hathaway has only significantly invested in Apple, which Buffett attributes to Apple's brand power and management advantages. This is an example of how even within a seemingly uniform group there are unique strengths of individual companies.
Second, history is not an absolute guide to the future. It's worth noting that the market actually showed up in November** as interest rates were expected to be cut sooner than expected. The situation of Rosewood Seven also needs to be considered in a broader context. Unlike the dot-com bubble of the day, when many were based on overly optimistic expectations for startups, today's tech giants are more mature and robust, with stronger balance sheets and lower interest rate sensitivity. For example, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft not only survived the tech crash of 2000, but have since come out stronger.
Third, these tech companies dominate the global market and have so-called "moats". For example, Nvidia has a near monopoly in the graphics processor market, while Google has a share of more than 80% of the global search engine market. While fears of a sharp market reversal and a full-blown crash may seem excessive, even if these big tech stocks seem to be better suited to the 2024 downturn, they are unlikely to repeat this year's stellar performance, in part due to the market's expectations for 2022.
Source**: Asset Information Network, Qianji Investment Bank, companiesmarketcap
However, investors should be wary of false sense of security. By 2024, antitrust regulations, the rollout of EV infrastructure, and the widespread use of generative AI will all have a profound impact on the longevity of Rosewood Seven. Each sector will face its own unique challenges and opportunities. As Munger emphasizes, focusing on fundamentals is key, even in an industry full of change.
* Synthesized from FT WSJ CompaniesMarketCap
Compiled by Sun Guangjun.
Cover image generated by AI