3 Ways to Predict the Effect of Promotions!

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-30

[Original Spirit Beast Mountain Tian Kun].

The most common way for physical stores to do increments or find that sales can't keep up with the progress is to do ** activities. Because **, display and service can stimulate demand as long as it touches customers, which is the fastest and easiest to do. However, many ** have no effect, in addition to the low price can no longer attract customers and can not accurately understand the demand, will not do *** is also a reason.

At the commodity level, there are three types of common activities: single product, category, and store. There are also three:

The first is to calculate the sales changes brought about by similar activities through the analysis of historical data;

The second is to analyze the elasticity and analyze the relationship between the increase and decrease of sales volume during the discount in history

The third is to set goals to decompose, formulate overall sales targets according to the first plan, and then decompose the sales volume into different ** products.

The first kind is relatively easy to do, as long as there is a perfect POS system to find the corresponding historical data, you can analyze and make a plan. If the new store lacks a reference value, the third method is used. The second type is more complicated, and it is necessary to analyze the impact of the historical changes in the high and low of the commodity on sales, so as to formulate a reasonable **.

The third is also a normal ** action, the key is that everyone knows this way, but most of them fail because the follow-up and adjustment of sales changes in the process are not timely, or the initial goal setting is unreasonable.

Expand on that. The first one*** is more suitable for single products**. For example, a certain brand's products have been sold first, and the sales volume has increased by 50% compared with the average sales. In this way, if you do similar activities, there is a high probability that the sales of the product will have the same growth effect.

In addition, since the ** event will be released in advance, customers may also wait for the event to start before making a purchase. This will affect the sales before and after the **, at this time the sales are likely to decline compared with the daily one, but the former is waiting to buy, and the latter is that the customer demand is filled.

Sales affect the entire commodity system. ** Sales of individual products will increase, and sales of other products in the same category may decrease. Because ** products have replaced non-** products, the taste, specifications and quality of these goods have similar attributes.

Although this situation is unavoidable, it is still necessary to minimize the risk of substitution, which is actually increasing the value of the activity. Of course, this is talking about the substitution effect within the same store, not about competitors.

The second kind of *** essence is discounting. According to the theory of supply and demand, when demand falls, demand increases when it falls, so the second type of study is the impact of elasticity. For example, 7% off evening bakery products in supermarkets**, sales increased by 50% compared to daily sales, and 6% off processed cooked food in the evening, sales increased by 30%.

Divide the increased sales volume by the discount change rate to obtain the **elastic coefficient, for example, the elasticity coefficient of processed cooked food is: 30% (-40%)=-075。With the elasticity coefficient, you can measure and quantify the increase in sales when making plans.

If the elasticity coefficient of each ** product is combined into a discount ratio table, you can intuitively analyze the sales growth brought by different coefficients. If there is no reference value, the elasticity coefficient of the same commodity is used instead.

The third type of *** is the overall ** plan. For example, the planned sales of the whole store should increase by 25%, and if the daily sales of the store are 150,000 yuan, this ratio can bring 3750,000 yuan in sales growth.

At this time, combined with the situation, the characteristics of the activity and the consideration of commodity substitution, the incremental target is decomposed into each single product, and the entire plan is completed, and the follow-up sales data needs to be continuously followed.

The foregoing is mainly for single products, categories and stores, and overly detailed analysis may not be accurate, because the key factor affecting these two types of ** is customer flow. The increase in foot traffic drives the increase in the sales of multiple single items under the category and across the store.

This brings us back to the basics of retail: sales are made up of the product of customer flow, conversion rate, and average order value. Analyze the sales growth that comes from the event by analyzing the interaction between foot flow, conversions, and sales.

In general, although the consumption downgrade is more obvious, the utility of low prices on the trend is declining, so the organization of ** activities needs to be more accurate and effective in order to make the ** value decline more slowly.

Generally, physical stores also have some sales expectations when they do **, but the expectations or plans are not detailed enough, and there are few good reviews afterwards. These three categories and three types of analysis are actually the basic skills of traditional supermarkets, but many small store operators have not mastered them so far.

Finally, whether it is homogeneity or differentiation, offline stores or omni-channel, discount stores or membership stores, there is no essential change in the logic of operation.

In the process of achieving sales targets and obtaining increments, it is important to have a complete ** plan, retail is a meticulous job, laziness and simplicity are not good.

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