Wind data shows that as of December 18, 2023, there are a total of 92 dividends related to ** (excluding connections**, A and **C shares are combined), of which 12 will be newly established in 2023, and the current cumulative share of dividends** is 10599.7 billion copies, an increase of 229 from the beginning of the year8.7 billion copies, an increase of 2769%。
At present, the largest dividend** is the enhanced Wells Fargo CSI Dividend Index**, with a share of nearly 10 billion shares. The top 5 dividends** shares all exceeded 3 billion, and except for the CITIC ** dividend value one-year holding product, the remaining 4** products all achieved share growth during the year, especially the Invesco Great Wall CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF, with a share increase of nearly 2,600% compared with the beginning of the year.
Chart: Top 5 Bonus Themes by Size**.
Source**: Wind
Each of the 92 dividend** strategies has its own focus, among which the CSI Dividend Index (000922CSI) has the largest number of ** as a benchmark for performance comparison, reaching 41. The performance benchmarks for the remaining types of dividends** also include the Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index (930955CSI), Dividend Low Volatility Index (H30269CSI), CSI State-owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824CSI), CSI 300 Index, S&P A Dividend Index (CSPSADRP.).ci) and so on.
Since the beginning of this year, the trend of the CSI Dividend Index and the Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index has risen first and then declined. In the first five months of this year, the CSI Dividend Index and the Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index soared against the market, and the Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index rose by more than 20%. After May, the tide of the special assessment ** ebbed, the dividend index and the dividend low volatility 100 index**, but the resistance of the two was significantly stronger than that of the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index. As of December 18, the dividend low volatility 100 index and the CSI dividend index have increased respectively during the year. 10%, while the ** index and the CSI 300 index rose by -5 in the same period21%、-14.08%。
Reflected in the performance of the first income, among the 46 ** companies with the CSI Dividend Index and the Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index as the performance benchmark, the highest return since the beginning of this year is 3376% with a median return of -127%, the overall return performance of the dividend ** is better than the median return of **type**, hybrid ** year-to-date - 1110、-10.58%。
Chart: Comparison of the dividend index with the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index since the beginning of this year.
Source**: Wind
Why is the bonus theme related ** able to "far lead" in this year's weak**?
First of all, let's understand the rules for compiling several indices. It can be found that the core of the dividend index's selection of constituent stocks lies in the past three consecutive high dividends, and the liquidity and market value cannot be too low;The Dividend Low Volatility Index is based on the emphasis on high dividends and the "low volatility" selection criterion.
Chart: Rules for compiling dividend indices and dividend low-volatility indices.
Source**: Wind
The dividend yield of the selected dividend index and the dividend low volatility index constituent stocks is very good in terms of dividend yield performance, and the dividend yield is basically increasing year by year, and the dividend yields of the dividend low volatility 100 index and dividend index constituent stocks in 2023 are respectively. 61%, which is significantly higher than the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds by 262%。
Industrial ** analyst said: "In the easy money environment, interest rates are in a downward channel, bond yields are down, and dividend assets, as typical bond-like assets, benefit from higher dividend yields and have higher allocation value." ”
Chart: Dividend yield performance of dividend index constituents.
Source**: Wind
In fact, in the U.S. market, there is no shortage of "dividends" in the large-scale smart beta products. The "dividend" factor is one of the widely used smart beta strategies by investors, which can help investors screen out companies that are operating steadily to a certain extent. According to the experience of the United States and Japan, when entering the era of "low economic growth + low market interest rate", the stable rate of return of high-dividend assets prevails.
Similarly, the dividend index can outperform the broad-based indices in the A-share market for a long time, and its historical performance is also remarkable. Since 2010, the CSI Dividend Total Return Index (H00922CSI) has an annualized rate of return of 639%, compared to the CSI 300 Total Return Index of 1The annualized rate of return of 59% is significantly better. Especially in the market since February 2021, the advantages of the dividend index's steady income are more obvious.
Chart: Since 2010, the Dividend Total Return Index has been compared with the CSI 300 Total Return Index.
Source**: Wind
Not only the "dividend" factor, but also the "low volatility" factor also has the ability to resist volatility and obtain significant excess returns. Everbright** analysts said, "Statistics show that low volatility and high dividends** have similar characteristics, and there is a natural fit to a certain extent. Behind the fit is the alignment of goals, that is, to obtain stable returns with low volatility and show good defensive attributes. ”
The fit between the two can also be reflected in the industry distribution of the constituent stocks. There is a certain overlap between the distribution of the dividend index and the dividend low volatility index constituent stocks, and the top industries include banks, coal, steel, etc., which themselves belong to mature industries, and the industry's stock price trend fluctuations in the past are relatively small, and the profitability is relatively stable, and the historical ROE is stable at a high level, and stable cash dividends can be paid every year.
Chart: Sector distribution of the Dividend Index and the Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index.
Source**: Wind
Looking ahead, is the dividend + low-volatility strategy still worth sticking to?Industrial ** analysts said: "On the one hand, the current growth rate of corporate investment is relatively moderate, and the capacity expansion of most traditional industries is not obvious;On the other hand, under the general trend of housing for living and not speculation, residents' willingness to increase leverage is still relatively conservative. Looking forward to the medium to long term, the low interest rate environment is expected to continue for a period of time, and the allocation value of dividend and low-volatility assets in the coming period is still prominent. ”
In addition, in addition to the characteristics of low volatility and high dividends, the CSI Dividend Index and the Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index currently have ultra-low valuation attributes. The current dynamic P/E ratios of the two indices are: 80, which is located at the valuation quantile in the past 5 years. 29%, at a historical low, there is room for further upward development in the future.