According to a study by the United Nations Development Programme, the humanitarian system in the Gaza Strip is currently on the verge of collapse, with 2.2 million people at immediate risk;The war is expected to cause at least US$10 billion (S$13.3 billion) in economic losses to several neighbouring Arab countries and push more than 230,000 people into poverty.
The latest rapid assessment released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) on Wednesday (13 December) pointed out that if the war continues until the third month (the end of this year), Egypt, The total gross domestic product (GDP) losses of Jordan and Lebanon could be as high as about $10.3 billion, or 23%；There will also be 230,000 new poor people in the three countries.
The rapid assessment draws on lessons learned from previous conflicts in the region, including the 2003 Iraq War, the 2008-2009 Gaza War, and the ongoing Syrian crisis since 2011, with several potential regional spillovers.
Impacts include changes in oil prices, refugee inflows, pressure on public debt and fiscal space, and shocks to tourism and **. While the impact of these spillovers may not yet be fully felt, assessments suggest that they remain risk variables that need to be carefully monitored.
The report also said that if the Israeli-Kazakh conflict continues for more than three months, the damage caused could intensify. By 2024, the conflict could push nearly 500,000 people into poverty, with total GDP losses of $18 billion, or 4%, in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon.
The crisis "dropped a bomb on an already fragile region".
Abdallah Al Dardari, UNDP Resident Representative in Afghanistan, noted that the economic impact of the war was "enormous" and that the crisis had "dropped a bomb on an already fragile region and made people fearful of what could happen and where it went".
Israeli authorities say that Hamas raided Israel across the border on October 7, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 240 hostages. Israeli forces have launched a counterattack, continuing to bomb and ground into the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, which has so far killed more than 18,600 people, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health.
The two sides of the conflict suspended fighting at the end of November and exchanged some hostages and prisoners. The ceasefire has not continued since its expiration and fighting has resumed in the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli army has expanded its offensive into the south.
Dadari said Gaza had "lost 45 to 50 percent of its homes in a month of fighting";The destruction of the site on such a scale in such a short period of time is unprecedented since the Second World War.
In addition, the war has already caused the mass displacement of nearly 80% of Gaza's population, compared to the conflict in Syria, which has triggered the world's largest refugee crisis, but which has been going on for more than a decade and "took five years of fighting to reach the level of devastation that Gaza has seen in a month."
Dadari and his team have been in contact with Gaza post-war reconstruction programmes and development** and multilateral financial institutions. "We won't wait until the end of the fighting ......," he saidThe work has already begun. ”