I. Introduction
After China's economy enters the new normal, the growth momentum of traditional manufacturing and export-oriented is weakening, and consumption and service industries should become new economic growth points. The "* Work Report" proposes to "expand consumption, especially service consumption". However, China's consumption rate is much lower than that of developed countries, and the potential of the consumer market has not been fully activated. At the same time, real estate investment has been an important force driving economic growth in recent years. However, in the context of policy tightening and destocking, the real estate market is facing structural adjustment, and the outlook is not optimistic.
In the face of the dilemma of changing the old and new drivers of economic growth, how to make the consumer market a new "cake" of China's economy while avoiding a "hard landing" of the economy is a serious issue before us.
Second, Huang Qifan proposed six ways to activate consumption
1.Increase people's income and expand their spending power.
The fundamental way to solve the problem of insufficient consumption is to rely on the income distribution policy to truly increase the disposable income of residents and raise the income level of low-income people. It is a basic law in economics that income affects consumption.
2.Development of automobiles and other bulk consumption.
Bulk consumption such as automobiles is an important aspect of China's consumption upgrading. Measures such as reducing taxes and fees on car purchases to support the transformation of the automobile industry;Actively but steadily develop new energy vehicles, stimulate automobile consumption, and drive the development of related upstream and downstream industries.
3.The real estate adjustment is taking a long-term view.
We cannot simply rely on real estate regulation to achieve short-term economic growth. On the premise of avoiding systemic risks, we will steadily promote the adjustment of the real estate structure, develop housing leasing, and promote a virtuous cycle of the industry.
4.Speed up the reform of the education and medical system.
This is a livelihood issue that involves the vital interests of the broad masses of the people. Speed up medical reform, control medical expenses, and reduce people's medical expendituresDeepen education reform, especially university education, and reduce the pressure on family education expenditure. This is also important for stabilizing the overall situation of social development.
5.Increase property income and promote the prosperity of the capital market.
Develop and regulate the capital market, increase the income of the people, and other financial assets. This can increase residents' property income, thereby expanding their spending power.
6.Reduce policy-based consumption restraints.
Many policy measures have actually restricted consumption, such as purchase and travel restrictions, as well as various direct interventions in automobile consumption. These constraints on consumption should be reduced and the market should be allowed to operate autonomously within the framework of macroeconomic policies.
3. Avoid a "hard landing" in the real estate market
Although Huang Qifan's six measures will indeed help expand China's overall consumption, the more difficult task is to prevent and resolve risks in the real estate sector and ensure its smooth operation. In recent years, real estate investment has been an important force driving GDP growth. However, in the context of policy tightening, the sales situation of real estate enterprises is difficult, the task of destocking is arduous, and there has been obvious market saturation in some places, and if there is a regional systemic risk, the consequences are unimaginable. As a result, policymakers face a difficult dilemma.
Stabilize market expectations and avoid panic**.
At present, uncertainty is increasing, market sentiment is nervous, and there is a greater possibility of greater volatility. At this time, policymakers should play a key role in strengthening early warnings, transmitting positive signals, and guiding the market to form stable and reasonable expectations. The real estate market is different from other commodity markets, and the impact of expectation factors is huge, and stable expectations can avoid panic**.
Flexibly adjust policies according to market conditions, and implement policies in different regions.
The real estate market is highly regionally different, and a one-size-fits-all policy is unlikely to work. In hot cities, it is necessary to continue to destock to prevent the emergence of new bubbles;In cold spot cities, policies should be appropriately relaxed to stabilize the market and avoid regional risks. It is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and analysis of the market, and accurately regulate and control according to the actual situation in different regions.
Avoid over-reliance on administrative means and use market-oriented mechanisms.
It is necessary to reduce direct intervention, gradually shift from direct control to indirect regulation, make full use of the effect of economic leverage, and guide the rational allocation of resources. Differentiated financial and fiscal policy tools can be used, rather than simply relying on the introduction of various red lines to limit purchases and loans. This avoids serious policy risks.
Promote the development of the rental housing market to meet rigid needs.
The rental market can play an important role in economic regulation, meeting the needs of people who just need it and relieving the pressure on home buyers. It is necessary to speed up the construction of public rental housing, housing with shared property rights and policy-based rental housing, innovate financial support policies, and standardize the order of the rental market. This can effectively share the demand for home purchases and prevent speculative demand from overheating.
Prevent financial systemic risks and strictly manage the financing of real estate enterprises.
In recent years, there have been frequent defaults by real estate companies, and it is necessary to prevent the risk from spreading further. It is necessary to strictly control the financing channels of real estate enterprises and avoid obtaining financing through various illegal channels. At the same time, it supervises the implementation of bank credit policies to prevent implicit credit amplification. Only by controlling financial risks can we ensure the safety of the market.
4. Conclusion: Only when the real economy is prosperous can the people become richer and richer
Real estate and the virtual economy cannot support GDP growth for a long time, and the real economy must be developed, relying on the progress of science and technology and manufacturing to continuously enhance total factor productivity. This is the deeper way to deal with the root cause. At the same time, we will continue to promote the reform of the income distribution system, so that the people can truly share the dividends of economic development, so that the consumer market can continue to expand and provide lasting impetus for economic development.